For many people, the first time they thought about Kalshia prediction market where you can place bets on the outcomes of sports, politics, culture, weather, and much morewas after a video clip of its cofounder, Tarek Mansour, went viral last week.
Speaking on stage at the Citadel Securities Future of Global Markets Conference, the moderator Molly OShea asked, Tarek, you’ve mentioned multiple times that you think prediction markets will be bigger than the stock market. What is it going to take to become a $1 trillion asset class? In response, Mansour said, You know, Kalshi is everything in Arabic. The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion.” The market impact of a “general-purpose exchange” capable of settling differences of opinion, he added, would be “quite massive.
With the launch of Kalshi in 2018, and its main competitor Polymarket in 2020, prediction markets have gone mainstream in a major way. The potential for making profit by owning the market where every opinion and event is financialized also explains why Kalshi has just raised another $1 billion in its third fundraising round this year alone. Investors are hungry for new ways to take advantage of the explosive rise of gambling, technologies that create addictive behavior loops, and economic conditions where people are desperate enough to bet their rent money on if Trump will release the Epstein Files.
Kalshi sits between Las Vegas and Wall Street. A platform like FanDuel helps you gamble on every aspect of a game, and a platform like Robinhood helps you day-trade with complex optionsall while sitting on your couch. Kalshi is designed to take this same logic and apply it to everything imaginable.
This is a bizarre vision, one that views all the world as a casino and all its people as players. It treats the proliferation of sports betting as a model for all human interactions. Its not enough to gamble on the outcome of a game. You should also be placing bets based on every opinion you have. (After all, do you really believe its going to be sunny today if you dont put money on it?)
For Kalshi, holding these opinions to yourself deprives the world of another asset that can be exploited for financial gain.
A neutral intermediary
Heres how it works. As a prediction market, Kalshi lets you buy events contracts based on the outcome of events in the world. You either buy a YES contract or NO contract based on if you think the event will happen. The price of each contract changes based on the dynamic odds at the time.
For example, on Kalshis trending page at time of writing, I can place a bet on who will be named Times Person of the Year for 2025. The leading contender is AI, with a YES contract priced at $0.42 and a NO contract at $0.59. If the event happens, then I get $1.00 for every YES contract I bought; if the event does not happen, I get $1.00 for every NO contract. The odds change in real-time based on the volume of bets (or predictions) for specific outcomes placed in the events market through these contracts. Currently the total volume of trade for this particular event is nearly $6.5 million, which is middling compared to many other trending event markets on Kalshi.
Kalshi is a neutral intermediary in the market with no interest in the outcome of any event contracts. You arent betting against Kalshi. Instead, the company makes money by charging trade-fees on contracts. So that means if people place more bets and buy more contracts, then Kalshi can capture more value. The platforms interest is in maximizing the number of event markets (things to bet on) and the volume of trade (people placing bets) on their platform.
For market maximalists, platforms like Kalshi should be the main arbiters of truth in society. In Mansours vision, prediction markets are an antidote to the problems of living in a world where we have an abundance of information but no way to filter the noise and discern what’s real from what’s not. By aggregating different opinions about the future in one place, and using skin in the game as an incentive for accuracy, Mansour expects that a new consumer habit will emerge of people going to these markets to find an unbiased sort of source of truth. Prediction markets like Kalshi wont be a source of the ultimate truth, Mansour says, but he does think they’re as close as it gets.
Such grand statements are unsurprisingly absurd coming from a tech startup founder. The problem is that other people take them seriously. (Kalshi declined to comment.)
Right after ESPN announced plans to integrate DraftKings into all its platforms, CNN signed a deal with Kalshi to bring real-time probability data into the network’s TV broadcasts and digital platforms starting next year. If you thought gambling was ruining the integrity and community of sports, just wait until CNN gives you live odds on the veracity of what its anchor is reporting.
The truth of markets
A century of economic theory tells us that efficient markets use price signals to reflect all relevant knowledge in society. According to this model, the market is the most powerful information processor ever created. It aggregates the hidden facts and feelings that reside inside peoples minds and distills that knowledge into actionable insights like prices in a supermarket or betting odds on the future. In addition to the invisible hand, the market is also theorized to be a collective brain. The libertarian architects and defenders of prediction markets point to these economic models when justifying the existence of a betting parlor they claim is actually a consensus machine that produces accurate predictions and unbiased truth.
However, a century of capitalism reality tells us actual markets are structured by irrational behaviors, information asymmetries, and power hierarchies. Its impossible to act like a rational agent if you are really just another imperfect person swayed by biases, heuristics, and groupthink. Its impossible to engage in due diligence as a good consumer if other buyers and sellers are incentivized to lie, cheat, and conceal information if it benefits them. Its impossible to maintain fair standing in the marketplace of ideas where people vote with their dollars and the more dollars you have, the louder your voice and more powerful your values. Rather than an efficient market guided by a collective brain toward the truth, we have an imperfect system of people trying to do the best they can while not getting screwed.
Prediction markets dont magically escape all the social problems and perverse incentives that plague other real markets just because people are betting on the future instead of buying widgets in a store. A world of total financialization, where every opinion is a tradeable asset, where the market is the ultimate arbiter of whats valuable and true, is also a world that creates endless incentives for arbitrage, manipulation, collusion, and exploitation in the pursuit of proft extraction.
Financialization is a predatory logic. It is not just one more way of organizing the world among many others. The goal is to eliminate other competing worldviews and reengineer society into a casino where the hedge funds always win. The only human values that matter are the ones that can be turned into tradeable assets and sold to the highest bidder.
As Australia began enforcing a world-first social media ban for children under 16 years old this week, Denmark is planning to follow its lead and severely restrict social media access for young people.The Danish government announced last month that it had secured an agreement by three governing coalition and two opposition parties in parliament to ban access to social media for anyone under the age of 15. Such a measure would be the most sweeping step yet by a European Union nation to limit use of social media among teens and children.The Danish government’s plans could become law as soon as mid-2026. The proposed measure would give some parents the right to let their children access social media from age 13, local media reported, but the ministry has not yet fully shared the plans.Many social media platforms already ban children younger than 13 from signing up, and a EU law requires Big Tech to put measures in place to protect young people from online risks and inappropriate content. But officials and experts say such restrictions don’t always work.Danish authorities have said that despite the restrictions, around 98% of Danish children under age 13 have profiles on at least one social media platform, and almost half of those under 10 years old do.The minister for digital affairs, Caroline Stage, who announced the proposed ban last month, said there is still a consultation process for the measure and several readings in parliament before it becomes law, perhaps by “mid to end of next year.”“In far too many years, we have given the social media platforms free play in the playing rooms of our children. There’s been no limits,” Stage said in an interview with The Associated Press last month.“When we go into the city at night, there are bouncers who are checking the age of young people to make sure that no one underage gets into a party that they’re not supposed to be in,” she added. “In the digital world, we don’t have any bouncers, and we definitely need that.”
Mixed reactions
Under the new Australian law, Facebook, Instagram, Kick, Reddit, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, X and YouTube face fines of up to 50 million Australian dollars ($33 million) if they fail to take reasonable steps to remove accounts of Australian children younger than 16.Some students say they are worried that similar strict laws in Denmark would mean they will lose touch with their virtual communities.“I myself have some friends that I only know from online, and if I wasn’t fifteen yet, I wouldn’t be able to talk with those friends,” 15-year-old student Ronja Zander, who uses Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok, told the AP.Copenhagen high school student Chloé Courage Fjelstrup-Matthisen, 14, said she is aware of the negative impact social media can have, from cyberbullying to seeing graphic content. She said she saw video of a man being shot several months ago.“The video was on social media everywhere and I just went to school and then I saw it,” she said.Line Pedersen, a mother from Nykbing in Denmark, said she believed the plans were a good idea.“I think that we didn’t really realize what we were doing when we gave our children the telephone and social media from when they were eight, 10 years old,” she said. “I don’t quite think that the young people know what’s normal, what’s not normal.”
Age certificate likely part of the plan
Danish officials are yet to share how exactly the proposed ban would be enforced and which social media platforms would be affected.However, a new “digital evidence” app, announced by the Digital Affairs Ministry last month and expected to launch next spring, will likely form the backbone of the Danish plans. The app will display an age certificate to ensure users comply with social media age limits, the ministry said.“One thing is what they’re saying and another thing is what they’re doing or not doing,” Stage said, referring to social media platforms. “And that’s why we have to do something politically.”Some experts say restrictions, such as the ban planned by Denmark, don’t always work and they may also infringe on the rights of children and teenagers.“To me, the greatest challenge is actually the democratic rights of these children. I think it’s sad that it’s not taken more into consideration,” said Anne Mette Thorhauge, an associate professor at the University of Copenhagen.“Social media, to many children, is what broadcast media was to my generation,” she added. “It was a way of connecting to society.”Currently, the EU’s Digital Services Act, which took effect two years ago, requires social media platforms to ensure there are measures including parental controls and age verification tools before young users can access the apps.EU officials have acknowledged that enforcing the regulations aiming at protecting children online has proven challenging because it requires cooperation between member states and many resources.Denmark is among several countries that have indicated they plan to follow in Australia’s steps. The Southeast Asian country of Malaysia is expected to ban social media account s for people under the age of 16 starting at the beginning of next year, and Norway is also taking steps to restrict social media access for children and teens.China which manufacturers many of the world’s digital devices has set limits on online gaming time and smartphone time for kids.
James Brooks, Associated Press
Some of the most recognizable artwork depicting the American West is heading to auction at Christie’s, where dozens of pieces from billionaire Bill Koch’s collection are expected to fetch at least $50 million.The in-person “Visions of the West” sale will take place in New York over two sessions beginning Jan. 20, with the final lots offered appropriately at high noon the following day. Koch’s holdings include major works by Frederic Remington, Charles Marion Russell and Albert Bierstadt, artists whose images of cowboys, Native Americans and sweeping landscapes helped define how generations came to picture the American frontier.Tylee Abbott, head of Christie’s American Art Department, said interest in Western subjects has remained strong as new audiences discover the culture and mythology of the region.“What is out West? What is over the horizon?” he mused. “It goes on to embody the American spirit.”Bill Koch’s brothers David and Charles Koch were major donors to conservative causes. Although he has pursued different ventures since a 1980s business dispute with his brothers, Bill Koch traces his longtime love of Western art to their childhood.“I was born and raised in Kansas and spent childhood summers working on my father’s ranches in Montana and Texas,” Koch said in a statement to The Associated Press. He described himself as “a child of the American Plains,” shaped by the Western art that hung in his home and the stories of the region’s past.The auction will include 16 sculptures by Remington, along with his painting “Coming to the Call,” which is expected to sell for $6 million to $8 million, according to Christie’s. There will also be both a small and large version of Remington’s “Bronco Buster” bronze sculpture. Russell’s “The Sun Worshippers” is projected to sell for $4 million to $6 million. Bierstadt’s bright vistas of mountains and plains are also among the featured works.Michael Clawson, executive editor of Western Art Collector magazine, said the esthetics of the region continue to surprise people who see them for the first time.“When you come here, there is something about the light, the atmosphere, the colors,” said Clawson, who grew up in Phoenix. He said the Western art genre has existed since the early 1800s and remains vibrant today, as younger collectors discover the genre and new artists keep it alive.And in the current century, population and wealth have surged across several Western states, with Arizona, Utah and Nevada each gaining well over a million residents since 2000. In the last decade, the median household income in the West rose from $58,000 in 2014 to almost $93,000 in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.The sale at Christie’s could attract collectors from across the nation, and the scale of the auction likely makes it one of the most significant Western art offerings in years. Christie’s has not said why Koch is selling, with the billionaire telling the AP simply, “It is time to pass along these pieces.”
Associated Press writer Mike Schneider in Orlando, Florida, contributed to this story.
Corey Williams, Associated Press
Sweeping taxes on imports have cost the average American household nearly $1,200 since Donald Trump returned to the White House this year, according to calculations by Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee.Using Treasury Department numbers on revenue from tariffs and Goldman Sachs estimates of who ends up paying for them, the Democrats’ report Thursday found that American consumers’ share of the bill came to nearly $159 billion or $1,198 per household from February through November.“This report shows that (Trump’s) tariffs have done nothing but drive prices even higher for families,” said Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the economic committee. “At a time when both parties should be working together to lower costs, the president’s tax on American families is simply making things more expensive.”In his second term, Trump has reversed decades of U.S. policy that favored free trade. He’s imposed double-digit tariffs on almost every country on earth. According to Yale University’s Budget Lab, the average U.S. tariff has shot up from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 16.8%, the highest since 1935.The president argues that the import taxes will protect U.S. industries from unfair foreign competition, bring factories to the United States and raise money for the Treasury.“President Trump’s tariffs have actually secured trillions in investments to make and hire in America as well as historic trade deals that finally level the playing field for American workers and industries,” said White House Spokesman Kush Desai. “Democrats spent decades complaining about lopsided trade deals undermining the American working class, and now they’re complaining about the one president who has done something about it.”The taxes are paid by importers who typically attempt to pass along the higher costs to their customers.Democrats did well in elections last month in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere largely because voters blame Trump and the Republicans for the high cost of living, just as they’d blamed Trump’s predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, for the same thing a year earlier.Economist Kimberly Clausing of the UCLA School of Law and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, last week told a House subcommittee that Trump’s tariffs amount to “the largest tax increase on American consumers in a generation, lowering standards of living for all Americans.” Clausing, a Treasury Department tax official in the Biden administration, has calculated that Trump’s import taxes “amount to an annual tax increase of about $1,700 for an average household.”
Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writer
Coca-Cola said Wednesday that its chief operating officer will become its next CEO in the first quarter of 2026.The Atlanta beverage giant said its board elected Henrique Braun as CEO effective March 31. James Quincey, Coke’s current chairman and CEO, will transition to executive chairman of the company.Braun, 57, has worked at Coca-Cola for three decades. Prior to assuming the COO role earlier this year, he led operations in Brazil, Latin America, Greater China and South Korea. He has held positions overseeing Coke’s supply chain, new business development, marketing, innovation, general management and bottling operations.Braun was born in California and raised in Brazil. He holds a bachelor’s degree in agricultural engineering from the University Federal of Rio de Janeiro, a master of science degree from Michigan State University and an MBA from Georgia State University.David Weinberg, Coca-Cola’s lead independent director, called Quincey, 60, a “transformative leader” who will continue to remain active in the business.During Quincey’s nine years as CEO, Coke added more than 10 additional billion-dollar brands, including BodyArmor and Fairlife. He also brought Coke into the alcoholic drink market with Topo Chico Hard Seltzer, which went on sale in 2021.In 2020, Quincey led a restructuring that reduced Coke’s brands by half and laid off thousands of employees. Quincey said Coke wanted to streamline its structure and focus its investments on fast-growing products like its Simply and Minute Maid juices.But as Quincey steps down as CEO, Coke is facing numerous challenges, including tepid demand for its products in the U.S. and Europe and increasing customer scrutiny of its ingredients. This summer, after a nudge from President Donald Trump, Coke said it would release a version of its trademark Cola with cane sugar instead of high-fructose corn syrup.Weinberg said the board is confident that Braun will build on the company’s strengths and seek out growth opportunities globally.Coke shares were flat in after-market trading.
Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Business Writer
Vibe coding has come to Washington.
Figma’s AI prototyping tool Figma Make is now available to its Figma for Government users, letting government product managers and designers build and iterate on prototypes and apps with a prompt. The development comes as federal agencies face a loomingand possibly impossibledeadline.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August that established a National Design Studio and an initiative to improve government services by Independence Day next year, but government cuts mean there are fewer federal workers to get the job done.
It’s a huge undertaking, considering the government’s digital footprint, which includes more than 10,000 websites used by more 400 million people, businesses, and organizations annually.
The hope is that Figma Make will cut the production time of prototypes from weeks to hours, as federal teams will be able to use vibe coding, or letting an AI application make code for them, to iterate faster on mockup elements like a website user flow.
Figma received FedRAMP authorization earlier this year, a clearance that gives its software a stamp of approval for use across the U.S. government. Already, the San Franciscobased design software company says it has more than 100 federal, regional, and local government agencies around the world as customers, including several U.S. federal government agencies, though they declined to name them.
The news shows how Silicon Valley is taking a growing role in government design work in Trump’s second term. Trump named Airbnb cofounder Joe Gebbia chief design officer, and on Tuesday, the Defense Department announced it would use Google’s Gemini for its AI platform.
Figma reported 38% year-over-year growth of $274 million in its November quarterly earnings call. CEO Dylan Field said about 30% of its biggest customers spending $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue were using Figma Make on a weekly basis.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point Wednesday for the third time since September, bringing its key rate to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. Before September, it had gone nine months without a cut.The benchmark rate is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another, and the Fed has two goals when it sets the rate: one, to manage prices for goods and services, and two, to encourage full employment. The benchmark rate also affects the interest rates consumers pay to borrow money via credit cards, auto loans, mortgages, and other financial products.Typically, the Fed might increase the rate to try to bring down inflation and decrease it to encourage faster economic growth, including by boosting hiring. The challenge now is that inflation remains higher than the Fed’s 2% target but the job market has cooled. The government shutdown had also prevented the timely collection and release of some data the Fed relies on to monitor the health of the economy.Here’s what to know:
Interest on savings accounts will continue to decline
For savers, falling interest rates will continue to erode attractive yields currently on offer with certificates of deposit (CDs) and high-yield savings accounts.Three of the big five banks (Ally, American Express, and Synchrony) cut their savings account rates since the last Fed rate cut in October, according to Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com. The top rates for high yield savings accounts right now remain around 4.35% to 4.6%.Those are still better than the trends of recent years, and a good option for consumers who want to earn a return on money they may want to access in the near-term. A high yield savings account generally has a much higher annual percentage yield than a traditional savings account. The national average for traditional savings accounts is currently 0.61%, according to Bankrate.
A cut will impact mortgages gradually
For prospective homebuyers, the market has already priced in the rate cut, meaning mortgage rates continue to hover around the lowest levels in more than a year.Mortgage rates are also influenced by bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.“While there’s no guarantee that the Fed’s move will push mortgage rates lower, there’s reason to be optimistic that homebuyers could see rates below 6.00% in the next year, even if only briefly,” according to Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree. “That would likely spur more Americans to refinance their current high-rate mortgages and possibly even to consider shopping for a new home.”
Credit card rate relief could be slow
Interest rates for credit cards are currently at an average of 19.80%, down from a record-high 20.79% set in August 2024, but still historically high. The Fed’s rate cut may be slow to be felt by anyone carrying a large amount of credit card debt. That said, any reduction is positive news.“The reductions could mean hundreds of dollars in savings for debtors,” according to LendingTree’s Schulz.While the decrease is incremental, improved affordability could also help stabilize delinquency trends, according to Michele Raneri, vice president of U.S. research at credit reporting bureau TransUnion.“Lower borrowing costs can begin to ease household budgets, providing relief from inflationary pressures and reducing financial stress,” she said.Still, the best thing for anyone carrying a large credit card balance is to prioritize paying down high-interest-rate debt, and to seek to transfer any amounts possible to lower APR cards or negotiate directly with credit card companies for accommodation.Raneri added that the current economic environment continues to be defined by “persistent affordability challenges.”
Auto loans are not expected to decline soon
Americans have faced steeper auto loan rates over the last three years after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate starting in early 2022. Those are not expected to decline anytime soon. While a cut will contribute to eventual relief, it might be slow in arriving, analysts say.And more borrowers are falling behind on car payments, a sign of economic distress. In October, 6.65% of subprime borrowers were at least 60 days late on their payments, according to Fitch Ratings, the highest delinquency rate on record, since record-keeping began in the early 1990s. The costs of both new and used vehicles remain high, according to Bankrate, which may be in part due to a shortage of used cars.Generally speaking, an auto loan annual percentage rate can run from about 4% to 30%, depending on the borrower’s credit score. Bankrate’s most recent weekly survey found that average auto loan interest rates are currently at 7.05% on a 60-month new car loan.
The cut signals the Fed cares about the labor market
If you’re a job-seeker right now, the Fed rate cut is good news, since cheaper borrowing for businesses could help them invest in additional employees to grow their business.“Overall, we’ve seen a slowing demand for workers with employers not hiring the way they did a couple of years ago,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “By lowering the interest rate, you make it a little more financially reasonable for employers to hire additional people. Especially in some areas – like startups, where companies lean pretty heavily on borrowed money – that’s the hope here.”Stahle acknowledged that it could take time for the rate cuts to filter down to employers and then to workers, but he said the signal of the reduction is also important.“Beyond the size of the cut, it tells employers and job-seekers something about the Federal Reserve’s priorities and focus. That they’re concerned about the labor market and willing to step in and support the labor market. It’s an assurance of the reserve’s priorities.”The Associated Press receives support from the Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. The independent foundation is separate from Charles Schwab and Co. Inc. The AP is solely responsible for its journalism.
Cora Lewis, Associated Press
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss are taking Gemini Space Station Inc. into the prediction market space.
The cryptocurrency exchanges CEO and president, respectively, said on Thursday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license to a company affiliate called Gemini Titan, LLC.
Gemini Titan will offer event contracts written as yes-or-no questions about future occurrences, essentially letting U.S. users gamble on the outcomes of everyday events.
As examples, Gemini in its announcement provided the questions, Will 1 bitcoin end this year higher than $200k? and Will Elon Musks X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?
The news comes three months after the Winklevoss twins, made infamous in the 2010 film The Social Network, brought Gemini public amid a wave of crypto-focused IPOs this year.
Geminis shares (Nasdaq:GEMI) soared about 16% during after-hours and into premarket trading on Thursday.
However, its stock is still down more than 64% from a high that it had reached around its market debut in September.
“Making America the crypto capital of the world”
The CFTCs granting of the license comes half a decade after Gemini first applied on March 10, 2020.
Tyler Winklevoss credited the approval to President Trump for ending the Biden Administrations War on Crypto.
He also thanked the CFTCs acting chairman, Caroline D. Pham, for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trumps vision for making America the crypto capital of the world.
Tyler Winklevoss continued his fawning: Its incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America.
As for when Gemini Titan will be up and running, the release simply states that it’s starting shortly.
U.S. customers should be able to use dollars to trade event contracts in their Gemini account on the web and, eventually, the mobile app. The company adds that Gemini Titan might add crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts to its derivative offerings in the future.
It will have to compete with existing prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Today, investors are waking up to red on their screens as many tech and AI stocks are dropping in premarket trading.
But why are shares in these companies falling? Much of it has to do with the cloud infrastructure company Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and its latest quarterly earnings results. Heres what you need to know.
Oracle’s Q2 2026 results send ORCL plunging
Yesterday, Oracle reported financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2026. To say investors were disappointed in the results is an understatement, given how poorly ORCL shares are performing in premarket trading this morning.
As of the time of this writing, ORCL shares are down over 12% as investors unpack its results:
Non-GAAP Earnings per Share: $2.26
Total Revenue: $16.1 billion
On the surface, the numbers look good. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were up 54% and total revenue was up 14%.
However, as noted by CNBC, while Oracles non-GAAP EPS beat LSEG analyst expectations of $1.64, analysts were expecting higher total revenue figures: $16.21 billion versus the $16.1 billion Oracle delivered.
That discrepancy caused the stock to tumble, even after the company announced new agreements with major AI investors, Nvidia, and Meta.
As noted by Investopedia, although these agreements have helped boost Oracle’s remaining performance obligations to $523 billion, they have also raised investor concerns about circular spending in the AI industry.
Circular spending refers to when companies invest in each other, effectively passing money back and forth.
Circular spending is also one of the biggest reasons why many fear we could be in an AI bubble waiting to pop.
Chip stocks fall after Oracles earnings results
These AI bubble fears seem to have been renewed today after Oracles financial results. As of the time of this writing, major chip companies operating in the AI space are seeing stock price declines, including:
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMD): down 1.2%
Arm Holdings plc (Nasdaq: ARM): down 1.2%
Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO): down 1.3%
Intel Corporation (Nasdaq: INTC): down 1%
Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU): down 1.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA): down 1.3%
QUALCOMM Incorporated (Nasdaq: QCOM): down 0.9%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM): down 1.4%
Big Tech shares are also falling after Nvidias earnings
Oracle’s disappointing earnings and renewed fears of an AI bubble also seem to be impacting the stock prices of many of techs most prominent players this morning, albeit to a lesser extent:
Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG): down 0.5%
Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN): down 0.7%
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL): up 0.1%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META): down 0.9%
Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT): down 0.6%
Nvidia Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA): down 1.3%
As for Oracle itself, the companys stock price is currently down over 12% to $196.25 per share.
This decline follows a strong year for Oracle. As of yesterday’s close, the stock is up 33% so far in 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s rise of 22.68%. Over the past 12 months, ORCL shares have climbed 25%.
Today, investors are waking up to red on their screens as many tech and AI stocks are dropping in premarket trading.
But why are shares in these companies falling? Much of it has to do with the cloud infrastructure company Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and its latest quarterly earnings results. Heres what you need to know.
Oracle’s Q2 2026 results send ORCL plunging
Yesterday, Oracle reported financial results for its second quarter of fiscal 2026. To say investors were disappointed in the results is an understatement, given how poorly ORCL shares are performing in premarket trading this morning.
As of the time of this writing, ORCL shares are down over 12% as investors unpack its results:
Non-GAAP Earnings per Share: $2.26
Total Revenue: $16.1 billion
On the surface, the numbers look good. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were up 54% and total revenue was up 14%.
However, as noted by CNBC, while Oracles non-GAAP EPS beat LSEG analyst expectations of $1.64, analysts were expecting higher total revenue figures: $16.21 billion versus the $16.1 billion Oracle delivered.
That discrepancy caused the stock to tumble, even after the company announced new agreements with major AI investors, Nvidia, and Meta.
As noted by Investopedia, although these agreements have helped boost Oracle’s remaining performance obligations to $523 billion, they have also raised investor concerns about circular spending in the AI industry.
Circular spending refers to when companies invest in each other, effectively passing money back and forth.
Circular spending is also one of the biggest reasons why many fear we could be in an AI bubble waiting to pop.
Chip stocks fall after Oracles earnings results
These AI bubble fears seem to have been renewed today after Oracles financial results. As of the time of this writing, major chip companies operating in the AI space are seeing stock price declines, including:
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMD): down 1.2%
Arm Holdings plc (Nasdaq: ARM): down 1.2%
Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGO): down 1.3%
Intel Corporation (Nasdaq: INTC): down 1%
Micron Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: MU): down 1.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA): down 1.3%
QUALCOMM Incorporated (Nasdaq: QCOM): down 0.9%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM): down 1.4%
Big Tech shares are also falling after Oracles earnings
Oracle’s disappointing earnings and renewed fears of an AI bubble also seem to be impacting the stock prices of many of techs most prominent players this morning, albeit to a lesser extent:
Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG): down 0.5%
Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN): down 0.7%
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL): up 0.1%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META): down 0.9%
Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT): down 0.6%
Nvidia Corporation (Nasdaq: NVDA): down 1.3%
As for Oracle itself, the companys stock price is currently down over 12% to $196.25 per share.
This decline follows a strong year for Oracle. As of yesterday’s close, the stock is up 33% so far in 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s rise of 22.68%. Over the past 12 months, ORCL shares have climbed 25%.
