Coinbase said on Monday it will buy prediction markets startup The Clearing Company, its tenth acquisition this year, as the crypto exchange looks to expand beyond its core digital assets business.
Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from elections and economic data to sports and policy decisions, effectively turning investors’ forecasts into tradable markets.
Supporters say the prices can reflect collective expectations more accurately than polls or forecasts, while critics argue the products blur the line between financial markets and betting, drawing growing scrutiny from regulators.
Prediction markets surged into the mainstream during the 2024 U.S. presidential race and have since drawn rapid interest and investments from all corners of the financial ecosystem.
Meanwhile, trading platforms are broadening their product suites to encompass multiple asset classes under one roof as competition intensifies. This shift, analysts say, could help Coinbase reduce its reliance on crypto trading as new players crowd the market.
“Prediction markets offer the company a high-engagement, high-frequency product that broadens the reasons for opening its app beyond crypto,” analysts at brokerage Benchmark wrote in a note last week.
Earlier this month, Coinbase launched its prediction markets platform and said it will start letting users trade stocks, positioning it as a direct competitor to brokerages such as Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
“We see many of Coinbase’s new initiatives encouraging and incentivizing customer engagement, which has been episodically more limited,” analysts at brokerage J.P. Morgan wrote in a note after the products were unveiled.
The deal for The Clearing Company is expected to close in January. Coinbase did not disclose the terms of the transaction.
Among its notable deals this year, Coinbase agreed to buy derivatives exchange Deribit for $2.9 billion in May, and struck a roughly $375 million deal for investment platform Echo in October.
Its shares were last up 2.6% in afternoon trading.
Manya Saini, Reuters
When a major power outage left tens of thousands of San Francisco residents in the dark weekend, the citys fleet of high tech self-driving vehicles went offline too.
Videos circulating on social media showed Waymo robotaxis clogging up intersections, addled by the sudden absence of guidance from traffic lights. In one video posted to TikTok, a Waymo robotaxi sporting its telltale rooftop cluster of sensors blocks a busy intersection as human drivers stream around it on both sides. This car did not move for 10+ min – it only left when the passengers ditched the car, the TikTok user who caught the footage wrote in the caption.
In another widely circulated video, at least five of the self-driving cars blocked a neighborhood road, flashing their hazards in confusion. The outage also took chunks of San Franciscos public transportation system offline and disrupted local businesses during one of the busiest shopping weekends of the year.
In light of the chaos, Waymo temporarily paused its service to San Francisco on Saturday evening. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events, a Waymo spokesperson said in a statement provided to Fast Company, adding that Waymo would prioritize rapidly integrating lessons learned from the weekend outage.
Because self-driving cars rely on a complex array of sensors rather than human judgment, unusual or unexpected events can cause them to behave unpredictably or shut down altogether. Even within normal traffic patterns, self-driving cars like those in Waymos fleet sometimes break traffic laws and endanger other drivers and pedestrians.
Earlier this year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe into Waymo following reports that the companys autonomous vehicles were zooming around stopped school buses, endangering children exiting the bus. An Austin school district reported that the self-driving cars continued to pass its stopped school buses, even after Waymo said it pushed a software fix.
San Franciscos power outage isnt the first time that Waymos fleet has terrorized the city, which regularly serves as a testing ground for new technologies developed nearby whether residents like it or not. In late October, a Waymo self-driving car struck and killed a beloved bodega cat in the Mission, leading to a public outpouring of feline love and anti-AI ire.
San Francisco goes dark
More than 120,000 people in San Francisco lost power in the weekends outage, leading to strange scenes of a mostly dim Bay Area skyline on Saturday night. By Sunday morning, around 24,000 homes were without power as PG&E worked to get the city back online. By Monday morning, a handful of blocks near Golden Gate Park and around the Civic Center remained affected, with PG&E promising to restore power to those areas by 2 p.m. Pacific Time.
According to PG&E, a fire in one of the power companys substations caused significant and extensive damage, plunging parts of the major West Coast city into darkness for multiple days. This is a very complex work plan and will require the highest amount of safety focus to ensure safe work actions, PG&E wrote in an update on its website. The utility company, one of the largest in the U.S., reported no injuries to its workers or city residents related to the outage.
The San Francisco outage is the latest black eye for PG&E, which has faced criticism, bankruptcy and even criminal charges in the course of providing power for major swaths of the West Coast. In 2020, the utility pleaded guilty to over 80 counts of manslaughter for the 2018 Camp fire, which leveled the Northern California town of Paradise, destroying 11,000 homes and most buildings. Our equipment started the fire. Those are the facts, and with this plea agreement we accept responsibility for our role in the fire, then PG&E President Bill Johnson said at the time, acknowledging that the companys badly maintained equipment ignited the deadly blaze and erased a rural California town from the map.
The Trump administration on Monday suspended leases for five large-scale offshore wind projects under construction along the East Coast due to what it said were national security risks identified by the Pentagon.
The suspension, effective immediately, is the latest step the administration has taken to hobble offshore wind in its push against renewable energy sources. It comes two weeks after a federal judge struck down President Donald Trumps executive order blocking wind energy projects, calling it unlawful.
The administration said the pause will give the Interior Department, which oversees offshore wind, time to work with the Defense Department and other agencies to assess the possible ways to mitigate any security risks posed by the projects. The statement did not detail the national security risks. It called the move a pause, but did not specify an end date.
The prime duty of the United States government is to protect the American people, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement. Todays action addresses emerging national security risks, including the rapid evolution of the relevant adversary technologies, and the vulnerabilities created by large-scale offshore wind projects with proximity near our east coast population centers.
Wind proponents slammed the move, saying it was another blow in an ongoing attack by the administration against clean energy. The administrations decision to cite potential national security risks could complicate legal challenges to the move, although wind supporters say those arguments are overstated.
Projects paused over national security concerns
The administration said leases are paused for the Vineyard Wind project under construction in Massachusetts, Revolution Wind in Rhode Island and Connecticut, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, and two projects in New York: Sunrise Wind and Empire Wind.
The Interior Department said unclassified reports from the U.S. government have long found that the movement of massive turbine blades and the highly reflective towers create radar interference called clutter. The clutter caused by offshore wind projects obscures legitimate moving targets and generates false targets in the vicinity of wind projects, the Interior Department said.
National security expert and former Commander of the USS Cole Kirk Lippold disputed the administrations national security argument. The offshore projects were awarded permits following years of review by state and federal agencies, including the Coast Guard, the Naval Undersea Warfare Center, the Air Force and more, he said.
The record of decisions all show that the Department of Defense was consulted at every stage of the permitting process, Lippold said, arguing that the projects would benefit national security because they would diversify the country’s energy supply.
A judge ruled blocking wind projects was unlawful
The administration’s action comes two weeks after a federal judge struck down Trumps executive order blocking wind energy projects, saying the effort to halt virtually all leasing of wind farms on federal lands and waters was arbitrary and capricious and violates U.S. law.
Judge Patti Saris of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts vacated Trumps Jan. 20 executive order blocking wind energy projects and declared it unlawful.
Saris ruled in favor of a coalition of state attorneys general from 17 states and Washington, D.C., led by New York Attorney General Letitia James, that challenged Trumps Day One order that paused leasing and permitting for wind energy projects.
Trump has been hostile to renewable energy, particularly offshore wind, and prioritizes fossil fuels to produce electricity.
Wind proponents slam the move
Wind supporters called the administration’s actions illegal and said offshore wind provides some of the most affordable, reliable electric power to the grid.
For nearly a year, the Trump administration has recklessly obstructed the build-out of clean, affordable power for millions of Americans, just as the countrys need for electricity is surging, said Ted Kelly of the Environmental Defense Fund.
Now the administration is again illegally blocking clean, affordable energy,” Kelly said. We should not be kneecapping Americas largest source of renewable power, especially when we need more cheap, homegrown electricity.”
The administration’s actions are especially egregious because, at the same time, it is propping up aging, expensive coal plants “that barely work and pollute our air, Kelly said.
Connecticut Attorney General William Tong called the lease suspension a lawless and erratic stop-work order that revives an earlier failed attempt to halt construction of Revolution Wind.
The wind project has been vetted and approved through every layer of federal and state regulatory process, including a careful review of security issues raised in the latest announcement, he said.
Every day this project is stalled is another day of lost work, another day of unaffordable energy costs, and other day burning fossil fuels when American-made clean energy is within reach,” Tong said. We are evaluating all legal options, and this will be stopped just like last time.
Suspension is praised by anti-wind group
A New Jersey group that opposes offshore wind hailed the administration’s actions.
Today, the president and his administration put America first,” said Robin Shaffer, president of Protect Our Coast New Jersey, a nonprofit advocacy group.
Placing largely foreign-owned wind turbines along our coastlines was never acceptable,” he said, arguing that the projects posed serious national security risks.
But the Conservation Law Foundation, a Boston-based environmental group, called the pause “a desperate rerun of the Trump administrations failed attempt to kill offshore wind,” noting that courts have already rejected the administration’s arguments.
“Trying again to halt these projects tramples on the rule of law, threatens jobs and deliberately sabotages a critical industry that strengthens not weakens Americas energy security, said Kate Sinding Daly, senior vice president for law and policy at the law foundation.
Matthew Daly, Associated Press
Associated Press writer Jennifer McDermott contributed to this report.
Over the weekend, rapper Nicki Minaj made a surprise appearance at Turning Point USAs AmericaFest convention, where she praised President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, mocked California Governor Gavin Newsom, and instructed listeners, If you are born a boy, be a boy.
On TikTok, her queer fans appear to be overwhelmingly disappointed.
The event was hosted by Erika Kirk, the widow of slain conservative pundit Charlie Kirk, who now serves as the CEO of the conservative nonprofit Turning Point USA.
Kirk took the stage with Minaj, where the two discussed Minajs recent alignment with the MAGA movement. During the talk, Minaj called Trump and Vance role models for young men.
For Minaj, the appearance was an official confirmation of a political stance that shes been hinting at on social media for several months.
Back in 2020, the rapper said that she was not gonna jump on the Donald Trump bandwagon.
This November, she signaled otherwise by reposting an official White House TikTok celebrating the administrations supposed successes, including the claim Our cities are safer than ever, which appears to be a reference to the administration deploying the National Guard and ICE officers to multiple major cities, as well as the anti-trans sentiment, No men in womens sports.
Now, Minajs queer listernerswho have always represented a large portion of her fanbaseare expressing feelings of betrayal on TikTok.
Nicki Minaj’s queer fans speak out
In past years, Minaj positioned herself as an ally to the LGBTQ+ community, offering words of encouragement to her gay fans and, at one point, describing herself as bisexual.
By aligning with MAGA, repeatedly promoting anti-trans rhetoric, and working with Turning Point USA (which has an extensive track record of anti-LGBTQ+ animus), she appears to be alienating some of her most dedicated supporters.
One of the most-viewed clips from Minajs appearance is a TikTok with nearly 300,000 likes in which the rapper states, If you are born a boy, be a boy, adding, boys will be boys, and theres nothing wrong with thatapparently discouraging trans women from transitioning.
The comments are flooded with negative comments from disappointed fans.
She built her career from the queer community, one user wrote. Literally almost half her fandom is part of the LGBTQ community, another added.
A number of commenters noted Minajs guest appearance on season 12 of RuPauls Drag Race as further evidence of her shifting support.
Others have shared that they plan to revoke support for the rapper after the recent appearance with Kirk.
In one TikTok with nearly 50,000 likes, an old clip of Minaj championing her gay fans is overlaid with the caption, I miss the old Nicki who actually cared about the LGBTQ community. R.I.P. 1982-2019 Nicki, you wouldve hated 2025 MAGA Nicki.
Elusive street artist Banksy appeared to confirm Monday that a new mural in London, depicting two children lying down and pointing up at the sky, is his latest work.
The artist posted two photos of the artwork on his official Instagram account Monday, hours after its appearance on a wall on the side of a building in Bayswater, west London sparked speculation over whether Banksy was behind it.
The black and white mural, painted above a garage, depicts two figures dressed in winter hats and boots lying on the ground, with one of them pointing a finger upwards.
An identical image appeared at the foot of a tower in central London on Monday, but the graffiti artist did not post that version on his account.
Banksy began his career spray-painting buildings in Bristol, England, and has become one of the worlds best-known artists. His paintings and installations sell for millions of dollars at auction and have drawn thieves and vandals.
While his work is often critical of government policy on migration and war, the latest artwork did not seem to carry an overt political message.
In September, he made headlines with a mural showing a judge holding a gavel looming over an unarmed protester holding a blood-splattered placard.
That piece, which appeared on an external wall of a Royal Courts of Justice building, was swiftly covered up and authorities said it had to be removed out of consideration of the building’s historical significance.
Google‘s corporate parent on Monday announced an agreement to buy data center energy specialist Intersect for $4.75 billion as part of its effort to secure the vast amounts of electricity needed to power artificial intelligence technology.
Alphabet, which depends on Google’s search engine and other online services for most of its revenue, is buying out Intersect in its entirety after purchasing a stake in the San Francisco-based startup a year ago. Intersect had previously raised $2.1 billion from Google and other early investors.
After the acquisition is completed during the first half of next year, Alphabet intends to allow Intersect to operate independently while continuing its efforts to secure the energy sources needed for the sprawling data centers being built to power the AI services rolling out from Google and rivals such as OpenAI.
The power-hungry data centers, which are being likened to AI factories, are fueling a backlash in communities where residents have been interpreting their steadily rising electricity bills as evidence that they are helping foot the boom for a technology boom that could still go bust.
Intersect focuses on finding ways to increase and diversify the supply of energy in an effort to keep hold down power costs. It’s already working on a data center for Mountain View, California-based Alphabet in Haskell County, Texas.
Google’s inroads with AI have helped increase Alphabet’s stock price by more than 60% so far this year, generating an additional $1.4 trillion in shareholder wealth.
Barnes & Noble is on a roll, and its not slowing down in 2026.
The bookstore has confirmed plans to open 60 new locations across the country in 2026. For Barnes & Noble, the move is part of a major comeback thats been years in the works.
After the company saw a sales peak in 2008, it spent a decade watching sales dwindle as customers moved to other retailers (especially digital booksellers like Amazon), ultimately leading the retailer to shutter 150 stores.
In 2019, the company was acquired by the UK’s Elliott Advisors and taken private.
But since 2023, Barnes & Noble has annually added dozens of new locations across the U.S. A post-pandemic boom in the bookstore economy and an influx of new readers from online communities like TikToks #BookTok have helped the store crawl its way back to bookselling dominanceand this latest announcement shows that the growth is more than a passing fad.
The retailer’s latest expansion plans were reported earlier by USA Today.
Where will the new Barnes & Noble locations be?
In a statement to Fast Company, a Barnes & Noble spokesperson confirmed that the company is looking to add 60 new stores before June 2026 across 10 locations, though the representative declined to share specific addresses or opening dates.
The locations include bookstores in the following states:
Ohio
Texas
Florida
Illinois
Colorado
Washington state
California
Virgina
Georgia
D.C.
How #BookTok made reading cool
This new expansion plan is on par with Barnes & Nobles annual growth levels over the past few years.
In 2023, it opened around 30 new stores, followed by 61 in 2024. According to the spokesperson, 2025 was the company’s most impressive year yet, notching an additional 67 stores.
Barnes & Nobles newfound success is part of a larger return to the stacksand return to reading as a hobby, more generallypowered, in large part, by readers on TikTok.
As younger communities discover popular reads through their #BookTok recommendations, everyone from retailers to libraries are seeing a rise in readership.
Back in February, a Barnes & Noble spokesperson told Fast Company, Since the rise of BookTok during the pandemic, bookstores have seen a significant surge in popularity, especially among young people. Our stores have become popular social spots, offering an experience that online shopping simply cant match.
BookToks popularity is having ripple effects in other areas, too. Some public institutions, like the Milwaukee Public Library and Columbus Metropolitan Library, are riding this wave by building their own presences directly on TikTok.
And companies like the book tracking app Goodreads and publisher Harlequin have both recently adopted new branding thats designed to appeal to the TikTok crowd.
While BookToks effect on booksellers and libraries mightve initially seemed like a brief phase, Barnes & Noble’s consistent expansion and strong sales appear to signal that reading is officially cooland profitableagain.
If youve sold equity in your company at some point, youre probably used to keeping track of your cap table and knowing which shareholders have how big of a stake.
But how would you feel about the U.S. government taking a sizable chunk of your business too?
Thats the increasingly common reality for a growing number of U.S. companies, a new analysis by The New York Times findsand for all the chatter over the summer about the feds moving to own almost 10 percent of Intel, computer chips arent the only sector seeing increased governmental involvement.
Instead, its the minerals, metals, and mining industry that comes up again and again in the Times breakdown of where the Trump administration is making money moves. Included on that list are investments made by the Department of Defense ($400 million in the mining company MP Materials; $35.6 million in Trilogy Metals; $80 million in mineral refiner ReElement Technologies; $620 million in rare earth magnet manufacturer Vulcan Elements) as well as the departments of Commerce (another $50 million in Vulcan Elements) and Energy ($182 million in deferred debt service with Lithium Americas).
Thats not to mention the governments golden share in U.S. Steel, its option to take a future 8 percent stake in the nuclear power company Westinghouse, or of course, the 9.9 percent stake in Intel, priced at $8.9 billion, that came out of the deal this summer.
The companies in which Trump is pushing for federal investment tend to be those deemed vital to national security, which is no surprise when you look at the sectors being prioritized: metals and mining, nuclear power, semiconductors.
If business-as-usual policies worked, America would not be reliant on foreign countries for critical minerals, semiconductors, and other products that are key for our national and economic security, an administration spokesperson said.
Still, its an unusual move by the typically free market-focused Republicans, with the Times estimating that over $10 billion in taxpayer money has already been dedicated to these investments (with more expected to be on the way).
Some officials are hopeful the equity stakes will generate a windfall for taxpayers, but the likelihood of that is unclear, the report reads. Many of the companies are facing financial headwinds, and some could take years to become profitable.
Critics have also raised concerns that these investments could create room for corruption and backroom dealings. The Times analysis did not look at stakes taken by the governments Development Finance Corporation, which more typically invests in private firms.
Brian Contreras
This article originally appeared on Fast Companys sister publication, Inc.
Inc. is the voice of the American entrepreneur. We inspire, inform, and document the most fascinating people in business: the risk-takers, the innovators, and the ultra-driven go-getters that represent the most dynamic force in the American economy.
Gold and silver prices rose to record highs in early trading on Monday, spurred on by a confluence of a few different political events and economic factors, including tensions over the U.S. seizing of possibly another oil tanker from Venezuela, speculation of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, overall economy insecurity, and bets on U.S. monetary policy in 2026.
In addition, there is the issue of increasing U.S. debt and increasing demands of AI. “The continued strength in gold is part of the so-called ‘debasement trade,’ where investors are seeking a hedge against the unprecedented global G7 debt, Ben McMillan, CEO of IDX Advisors, told Fast Company. For silver, we have the added element that roughly 70% of silver is used for industrial purposes, which recently has been increasing due to increased demand for data centers, solar panels and electronic vehicles (all of which use silver).”
In 2025, gold has surged by nearly 70%, according to Bloomberg.
Here’s what to know.
What happened today?
At the time of this writing, in midday trading on December 22, gold bullion (GC=F) was up over 1.9% to $4,472.20 and silver (SI=F) was up about 3.4%, heading toward $70 an ounce, making both headed for highest levels since 1979, per Bloomberg.
How did the Fed rate cut affect gold and silver prices?
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, driving federal rates to their lowest in three years and pointing to possible further cuts in the year ahead.
Historically, gold prices have risen following U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with notable gains of 31% in 2000, 39% in 2007, and and 26% in 2019 (all within 24 months).
That’s because those rate cuts are often an attempt to jump-start slowing economic growth, and gold is considered a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty.
In this case, gold became more appealing as bonds and other fixed-income investments yielded lower investments, according to Investopedia.
Will gold hit $5,000 an ounce in 2026?
Now the question is, will gold break the $5,000-an-ounce threshold next year?
Nobody can say for sure, but as the bullion inches upward, Goldman Sachs is predicting gold will hit $4,900 an ounce by December 2026, and oil prices will decline to a low mid-year.
Meanwhile, McMillan notes, “we’re seeing a structural shift in the demand curves for both [gold and silver] that could result in sustained price strength for longer than many expect.”
The white dome of Boudhanath rises like a silent guardian over the chaotic sprawl of Nepals capital, Kathmandu, crowned by a golden spire that pierces the sky. Painted on each of the spires four sides are the benevolent eyes of the Buddha wide, calm, and unblinking said to see all that unfolds below.
Those eyes have served as a symbol of sanctuary for generations of Tibetans fleeing the Chinese crackdown in their homeland. But today, Tibetan refugees are also watched by far more malevolent eyes: Thousands of CCTV cameras from China, perched on street corners and rooftops to monitor every movement below. This intense surveillance has stifled the once-vibrant Free Tibet movement that had resonated around the world.
Nepal is just one of at least 150 countries to which Chinese companies are supplying surveillance technology, from cameras in Vietnam to censorship firewalls in Pakistan to citywide monitoring systems in Kenya. This technology is now a key part of Chinas push for global influence, as it provides cash-strapped governments cost-effective, if invasive, forms of policing turning algorithms and data into a force multiplier for control.
The irony at the heart of this digital authoritarianism is that the surveillance tools China exports are based on technology developed in its greatest rival, the United States, despite warnings that Chinese firms would buy, copy, or outright steal American designs, an investigation by The Associated Press has found.
For decades, Silicon Valley firms often yielded to Beijings demands: Give us your technology and we will give you access to our market. Although tensions fester between Washington and Beijing, the links between American tech and Chinese surveillance continue today.
For example, Amazon Web Services offers cloud services to Chinese tech giants like Hikvision and Dahua, assisting them in their overseas push. Both are on the U.S. Commerce Departments Entity List for national security and human-rights concerns, which means transactions with them are not illegal but subject to strict restrictions.
AWS told AP it adheres to ethical codes of conduct, complies with U.S. law, and does not itself offer surveillance infrastructure. Dahua said they conduct due diligence to prevent abuse of their products. Hikvision said the same, and that they categorically reject any suggestion that the company is involved in or complicit in repression.
Chinese technology firms now offer a complete suite of telecommunications, surveillance, and digital infrastructure, with few restrictions on who they sell to or how theyre used.
China pitches itself as a global security model with low crime rates, contrasting its record with the United States, said Sheena Greitens, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin.
Its got a set of solutions that its happy to share with the world that nobody else can offer, she said. (But) theyre certainly exporting the tools and techniques that are very important to authoritarian rule.
The AP investigation was based on thousands of Nepali government procurement documents, corporate marketing material, leaked government and corporate documents, and interviews with more than 40 people, including Tibetan refugees and Nepali, American, and Chinese engineers, executives, experts and officials.
While thousands of Tibetans once fled to Nepal every year, the number is now down to the single digits, according to Tibetan officials in Nepal. In a statement to AP, the Tibetan government in exile cited tight border controls, Nepals warming ties with China and unprecedented surveillance as reasons for the drastic plunge.
A 2021 internal Nepali government report, obtained by AP, revealed that China has even built surveillance systems within Nepal and in some areas of the border buffer zone where construction is banned by bilateral agreements. In a statement to AP, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied coercing Western companies to hand over technology or working with Nepal to surveil Tibetans, calling it a sheer fabrication driven by ulterior motives.”
Attempts to use Tibet-related issues to interfere in Chinas internal affairs, smear Chinas image, and poison the atmosphere of China-Nepal cooperation will never succeed, the statement said.
The Nepali government and the Chinese-controlled Tibetan authorities did not respond to requests for comment.
Under pressure, many Tibetans are responding the only way they can: Leaving. The Tibetan population in Nepal has plunged from over 20,000 to half that or less today.
Former activist Sonam Tashi gave up protesting years ago. Now 49, today he’s just a father trying to get his 10-year-old son out before the net pulls tighter. The boy was born in Nepal but has no document proving he is either a refugee or a citizen, a result of Chinese pressure.
Tashi described how those considered likely to protest are picked up in advance around key dates like March 10, which marks the 1959 Tibetan uprising, or July 6, the Dalai Lamas birthday. In 2018, Nepal’s police magazine confirmed that it was building predictive policing, which allows officers to watch peoples movements, identify in advance who they think will protest, and arrest them preemptively.
There are cameras everywhere, Tashi said, sitting on a bus winding toward the Indian border. There is no future.
They gave us all the hardware
After China crushed a Tibetan uprising in 1959, thousands fled across the Himalayas to Nepal, carrying only what they could: Religious paintings, prayer wheels, and the weight of families left behind.
Their exodus, led by the charismatic Dalai Lama, captured the American imagination, with Hollywood films and actor Richard Geres congressional appeals putting Tibet in the spotlight. Washington trod a careful line, defending the rights and religious freedom of Tibetans without recognizing independence.
Today, the future of the Free Tibet movement is in question. Without refugee cards that grant basic rights, Tibetans in Nepal can no longer open bank accounts, work legally, or leave the country.
Cameras are now everywhere in Kathmandu, perched on traffic lights and swiveling from temple eaves. Most link back to a four-story brick building just a few blocks down from the Chinese embassy, where officers watch the country in real time.
The building hums with the low breath of cooling fans. Inside, a wall of monitors blinks with feeds from border towns, busy mrkets and clogged traffic crossings.
Officers in crisp blue uniforms and red caps sit in the glow, scanning scenes. Beneath the screens, a photo published in a Nepali daily shows, a sign in English and Chinese reads: With the compliments of the Ministry of Public Security of China.
Their reach is vast.
Operators can track a motorbike weaving through the capital, follow a protest as it forms, or patch an alert directly to patrol radios. Many cameras are equipped with night vision facial recognition and AI tracking able to pick a single face out of a festival crowd or lock onto a figure until it disappears indoors. The system not only sees but is learning to remember, storing patterns of movement, building a record of lives lived under its gaze.
A 34-year-old Tibetan cafe owner in the city watched the city change in quiet horror. Now you can only be Tibetan in private, he said. He and other Tibetans in Nepal spoke to AP anonymously, fearing retaliation.
The first cameras in Boudhanath were installed in 2012, officially to deter crime. But after a Tibetan monk doused himself in petrol and set himself ablaze in front of the stupa in 2013, police added 35 night vision cameras around it.
The Chinese embassy in Kathmandu worked closely with the police, said Rupak Shrestha, a professor at Simon Fraser University in Canada who studied surveillance in Nepal. He said the police received special training to use the new cameras, identify potential symbols associated with the Free Tibet movement, and anticipate dissent.
In 2013, a team of Nepal Police officers crossed the northern border into Tibet for a seemingly straightforward mission: Collect police radios from Chinese authorities in Zhangmu, a remote border town, about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from Kathmandu. A truck was loaded with equipment and a few handshakes later, they were driving back to Kathmandu.
The radios made by the partly state-owned Chinese firm Hytera looked like walkie-talkies but ran on a digital trunking system, a scaled-down mobile network for police use. Officers could talk privately, coordinate across districts, even patch into public phone lines. The entire system radios, relay towers, software was a $5.5 million gift from China.
They didnt give us the money, recalled a retired Nepali officer who made the trip. They gave all the hardware. All Chinese.
He remembered not the border guards but the tech sleek, reliable, and far ahead of anything theyd used before. He spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive internal discussions.
He said Nepal had initially considered buying the technology from the U.S. and only wanted to deploy the system in its two biggest cities. Hytera was a fraction of the cost and performed comparably, but China also wanted coverage near the border with Tibet. Nepal acquiesced.
They installed the technology in Sindhupalchowk, a border district with a key road to China used by Tibetan refugees. We understood their mindset, the retired officer said. A secure border.
A police envoy from the Chinese embassy began making regular visits to the Nepal Police headquarters. Hed chat over coffee, flip through brochures from Chinese companies. Hed say, You want anything? the retired officer recalled.
China began donating tens of millions in police aid and surveillance equipment, including a new school for Nepals Armed Police Force. Hundreds of Nepali police traveled to China for training on policing and border control, according to Chinese government posts.
Ahead of a summit of South Asian leaders in 2014, among the goods on offer were ones from Uniview, Chinas pitch for an all-seeing eye.
The company was the Chinese surveillance business of what was then Hewlett Packard, or HP, before it was spun off in a 2011 deal. Since 2012, Uniview has been selling mass surveillance solutions to the Tibetan police, such as a command center, and developed cameras that track ethnicities such as Uyghurs and Tibetans.
Uniview installed cameras in Kathmandu for Nepals first safe city project in 2016. It started with the citys roads, then went up across the capital in tourist areas, religious sites, high-security zones like Parliament and the prime ministers home.
The cameras didnt just record. Some could follow people automatically as they moved. Others were designed to use less data, making it easier to store and review footage.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise, or HPE, a successor company to HP that sells security solutions, has no ownership in Uniview and declined to comment. Hytera and Uniview did not respond to requests for comment.
Nearly all the cameras installed in Nepal are now made by Chinese companies like Hikvision, Dahua, and Uniview, and many come bundled with facial recognition and AI tracking software.
Hikvision’s website and marketing materials advertise camera systems in Nepal linked via Hik-Connect and HikCentral Connect, cloud products that rely on Amazon Web Services. Hikvision sells to the Nepali police and government, and a template for Nepali tenders indicates CCTV cameras procured for the government are required to support Hik-Connect.
In return for Beijings support, top Nepali officials have thanked China repeatedly over the years, promising never to allow anti-China activities on Nepali territory.
The Nepali police head offices arent far from the now-forlorn Tibetan reception center, which used to shelter tired, hungry Tibetans fleeing across the border.
The building is nearly empty. The gates are locked. Those who do escape, like Namkyi, arrested at 15 for protesting Chinese rule, often have to wait for weeks confined indoors until theyre smuggled out again to the Tibetan capital in exile in India.
Silence has become survival.
They know they are being watched, she said. Even though we are free, the surveillance cameras mean were actually living in a big prison.
From clients to competitors
From the start, U.S. companies eager for Chinas vast markets exchanged technology for enry.
Many were required to start joint ventures and research operations in China as a precondition for being allowed in. Dozens, if not hundreds, complied, transferring valuable know-how and expertise even in sensitive areas like encryption or policing.
Little by little, Chinese companies chipped away at the lead of American tech companies by luring talent, obtaining research, and sometimes plain copying their hardware and software. The flow of technology continued, even as U.S. officials openly accused China of economic espionage and pressuring American companies for their technology.
China is by far the most egregious actor when it comes to forced technology transfer, Robert D. Atkinson, then-president of a think tank focused on innovation, warned Congress in a 2012 hearing.
American tech resistance came to a final, definitive end later that year with Edward Snowdens revelations that U.S. intelligence was exploiting American technology to spy on Beijing. Spooked, the Chinese government told Western firms they risked being kicked out unless they handed over their technology and provided security guarantees.
After companies like HP and IBM agreed, their former partners became their fiercest global competitors and unlike American firms, they faced few questions about the way their technology was being used. Companies like Huawei, Hikvision, and Dahua have now become global behemoths that sell surveillance systems and gear all over the world.
American technology was key to this:
– Uniview, the Chinese AI-powered CCTV camera supplier, supplied the first phase of Nepals safe city project in 2016, installing cameras in Kathmandu. Uniview was carved out of California-based HPs China surveillance video business.
– Hytera provided data infrastructure for the Nepali police, such as walkie-talkies and digital trunking technology, which enables real-time communication. Earlier this year, Hytera acknowledged stealing technology from U.S. company Motorola in a plea agreement, and had acquired German, British, Spanish, and American tech businesses in their growth phase.
– Hikvision and Dahua, Chinas two largest surveillance camera suppliers, sell many of the cameras now in Nepal. They partnered with Intel and Nvidia to add AI capabilities to surveillance cameras. Those ties ended after U.S. sanctions in 2019, but AWS continues to sell cloud services to both companies, which remains legal under what some lawmakers call a loophole. AWS has advertised to Chinese companies expanding overseas, including at a policing expo in 2023.
– Chinese tech giant Huawei has become one of the worlds leading sellers of surveillance systems, wiring more than 200 cities with sensors. In Nepal, they supplied telecom gear and high-capacity servers at an international airport. Over the years, the company benefited from partnerships with American companies like IBM, and has been dogged by allegations of theft including copying code from Cisco routers wholesale, a case which Huawei settled out of court in 2004.
Huawei said it provides general-purpose products based on recognized industry standards. Intel has said it adheres to all laws and regulations where it operates, and cannot control end use of its products. Nvidia has said it does not make surveillance systems or work with police in China at present.
IBM and Cisco declined to comment. Policing gear maker Motorola Solutions, a successor company to Motorola after it split, did not respond to requests for comment.
U.S. technology transfer to Chinese firms has mostly stopped after growing controversy and a slew of sanctions in the past decade. But industry insiders say its too late: China, once a tech backwater, is now among the biggest exporters of surveillance technologies on earth.
Few realized the U.S. shouldnt be selling the software to China because they might copy it, they might use it for these types of surveillance and bad stuff, said Charles Mok, a Hong Kong IT entrepreneur and former lawmaker now living in exile as a research scholar at Stanford. Nobody was quick enough to realize this could happen.
The great big eye in the sky
Inside a 15th-century monastery in Lo Manthang in Nepals Mustang district, light slants through wooden slats, catching motes of dust and the faded faces of bodhisattvas.
Crumpled notes of Chinese currency lie at the feet of deities in the walled city along the Tibetan border. Here, shops stock Chinese instant noodles and cars with Chinese plates rumble down mountain roads.
A gleaming white observation dome just inside Chinese territory looms over the city. Visible from 15 kilometers (9 miles) away, its trained on the district that has long been a refuge for Tibetans, including a guerrilla base in the 1960s.
The dome is just one node in Chinas vast 1,389-kilometer (863-mile) border network with Nepal a Great Wall of Steel of fences, sensors, and AI-powered drones.
Chinese forces have barred ethnic Tibetans from accessing traditional pastures and performing sacred rites. They have pressured residents of Lo Manthang to remove photos of the Dalai Lama from shops. And a China-Nepal joint command mechanism meets several times a month on border patrols and repatriations, according to a post by the Chinese-run Tibetan government.
The result is that the once-porous frontier is now effectively sealed, and Chinas digital dragnet reaches deep into the lives of those who live near it.
In April 2024, Rapke Lama was chatting with a friend across the border on WeChat when he received an invitation to meet. He set out from his village and crossed into Tibet only to be arrested almost immediately.
Lama believes his WeChat exchange was monitored; Chinese police appeared with unsettling precision, as if they knew where to look. After accusing him wrongly, he maintains of helping Tibetans flee into Nepal, the police seized his phone, which had photos of the Dalai Lama and Tibetan music. Then came months in a Lhasa prison, where isolation and inadequate medical care hollowed him out.
Lama did not return to Npal until May 2025, gaunt and shaken. He later said he entered Tibet to harvest caterpillar fungus, valued in traditional Chinese medicine. Another friend who crossed the border remains in custody.
Even now, Im scared, Lama says. He wears masks when wandering the streets, he says, because of that lingering fear.
The Chinese observation dome is a giant symbol of the same fear, towering over the border.
Its the great big eye in the sky, said a 73-year-old Tibetan hotel owner in Nepal, who spotted the installation during a trip near the border last year. For Tibetan refugees, Nepal has become a second China.
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Associated Press journalists Niranjan Shrestha and Binaj Gurubacharya in Kathmandu, Manish Swarup and Rishi Lekhi in New Delhi, Ashwini Bhatia in Dharamshala, India, and David Goldman in Washington contributed to this report.
Aniruddha Ghosal and Dake Kang, Associated Press
