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When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings beyond seasonality could suggest a market that is heating up.
Since the national Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country that shift has varied.
Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has jumped above pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced softer home price growth (or outright price declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, local housing markets where active inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months.
Where is national active inventory headed?
National active listings are on the rise on a year-over-year basis (+13% between November 2024 and November 2025). This indicates that homebuyers have gained some leverage in many parts of the country over the past year. Some sellers markets have turned into balanced markets, and more balanced markets have turned into buyers markets.
Nationally, were still below pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels (-6% below November 2019) and some resale markets, in particular chunks of the Midwest and Northeast, still remain tight-ish.
While national active inventory is still up year-over-year, the pace of growth has slowed in recent monthsmore than typical seasonality would suggestas some sellers have thrown in the towel and delisted in weak/soft markets.
Here are the November inventory/active listings totals, according to Realtor.com:
November 2017 -> 1,228,077
November 2018 -> 1,273,047
November 2019 -> 1,143,332
November 2020 -> 683,822
November 2021 -> 512,241
November 2022 -> 750,200
November 2023 -> 755,489
November 2024 -> 953,452
November 2025 -> 1,072,417
If we maintain the current year-over-year pace of inventory growth (+118,965 homes for sale), we’d have 1,191,382 active inventory come November 2026.
Below is the year-over-year active inventory percentage change by state:
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While active housing inventory is rising in most markets on a year-over-year basis, some markets still remain tight-ish (although it’s loosening in those places too).
As ResiClub has been documenting, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest and Northeast. Thats where home sellers next spring are likely, relatively speaking, to have more power than their peers in many Southern markets.
In contrast, active housing inventory for sale has neared or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels in many parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, including metro area housing markets such as Punta Gorda and Austin. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home prices getting stretched compared to local incomes.
As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend was accelerated further by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt.
Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives (if they have the margins to do so) to maintain sales in a shifted market, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market: Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. That puts additional upward pressure on resale inventory.
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At the end of November 2025, 18 states were above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington. (The District of Columbiawhich we left out of this analysisis also back above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels too. Softness in D.C. propers predates the current admins job cuts.)
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Big picture: Over the past few years, weve observed a softening across many housing markets as strained affordability tempers the fervor of a market that was unsustainably hot during the Pandemic Housing Boom. While home prices are falling some in pockets of the Sun Belt, a big chunk of Northeast and Midwest markets still eked out a little price appreciation this year. Nationally aggregated home prices have been pretty close to flat in 2025.
Below is another version of the table abovebut this one includes every month since January 2017:
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Researchers on the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) and leaders of many of the major platformsfrom Jeffrey Hinton to Yoshua Bengio, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Elon Muskhave voiced concerns that AI could lead to the destruction of humanity itself.
Even the stated odds from some of these AI experts, with an end-days scenario as high as 25%, are still wildly optimistic, according to Nate Soares, president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and coauthor of the recent best-selling book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.
Thats because, as he argues in the book, the track we’re on with AI is headed for disasterunless something radically changes. The book, cowritten with researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, explores potential threats posed by “superintelligence,” or theoretical AI systems that are smarter than humans.
We’re sort of growing these AIs that act in ways nobody asked for, that have these drives and emergent behaviors nobody intended, Soares said at last months World Changing Ideas Summit, cohosted by Fast Company and Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.
If we get superhumanly intelligent AIs that are pursuing ends nobody wanted, I think the default outcome is that literally everybody on earth dies,” he added.
A reckoning for the world
Likening the work of some AI leaders to building an airplane while flying with no landing gear, Soares said that not enough attention is being paid to the technologys potentially negative outcomes.
The amount of global investment being poured into AI shows that people are betting it wont be a total dud, he said, but there are two other crazy options: AI radically automates all human labor, so the economy is captured by a very small group, or it becomes super intelligent and kills everyone.
The world hasn’t really quite come to understand just how crazy this AI stuff is, Soares said.
But there is some reason for optimism, Soares said, as a lot of people are worried about the future of AI, which makes for a brittle situation if more peopleall of us includedvoice their concerns.
Maybe if enough people are like, Wait, we’re doing what now? What the heck? Soares said. Maybe that will shake the whole world into saying, Holy crap, let’s change course.
The Senate is heading toward dueling partisan votes on health care this week after Republicans said Tuesday that they had united around a plan, for now, that would allow COVID-era health care subsidies to expire.Both the Republican plan, which would replace the subsidies with new savings accounts, and a Democratic bill to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits for three years lack the bipartisan support needed for passage. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Tuesday that the Democratic legislation does not include enough reforms to curb fraud or limit high-income recipients. That legislation “will fail,” Thune said.At the same time, Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the Republican plan “phony” and said the bill is “dead on arrival.”The burden is on Republicans “to vote with us,” Schumer said of Democrats, who forced a 43-day government shutdown over the issue.With Republicans and Democrats unable to agree or even really negotiate with each other millions of people could see increases in their premium payments when the tax credits expire in January. Both sides blame the other for the increasingly likely failure of Congress to act, bringing the issue into the midterm election year with political talking points but little in the way of compromise on the subsidies that have helped keep costs down for many of the more than 24 million Americans.
Tentative GOP unity after years of disagreement
The Republican unity around a single plan, in the Senate at least, comes as the party has wrangled for more than a decade over how to replace former President Barack Obama’s signature law, also known as Obamacare.The legislation by Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, the chairman of the Senate Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Committee, and Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, emerged this week from many different proposals from Republican senators, including some that would have extended the tax credits with new limits.Despite those differences, Republicans worked to project unity as they emerged from a lunch meeting Tuesday. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who had just recently proposed legislation to extend the subsidies with new income caps, said he is now “hyper-focused” on Cassidy and Crapo’s legislation. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who had his own bill to reduce taxes on health care, said the consensus bill “isn’t perfect, but I’m willing to give it a go.”“I just think that Republicans can’t do nothing,” Hawley said after the meeting. “I think we ought to be doing everything we can to try and get down the cost of health care.”Thune said there will now be “something out there that Republicans will be able to talk about and support and vote for, and then we’ll see.”There was less consensus in the House, where moderate Republicans who are up for reelection have been pushing Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to extend the subsidies with new reforms while the right flank of the party has demanded deeper reforms to the ACA. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters that GOP leadership will present options to members on Wednesday for potential votes next week.
Proposed health savings accounts
The bill by Cassidy and Crapo would let the current subsidies, first put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic, expire. The legislation would then make payments to the new health savings accounts for the next two years, for enrollees making less than 700% of the federal poverty level who pick lower-cost, higher-deductible bronze or catastrophic health insurance plans.Eligible enrollees between the ages of 18 and 49 would get $1,000 per year, while those between 50 and 64 would get $1,500. The money could be spent to defray out-of-pocket expenses like copays and deductibles, or to purchase other qualified health-related items directly from companies, but not to cover monthly premiums.Cassidy and Crapo say their bill provides better support to Americans than the expiring subsidies do because it hands money directly to the people, giving them the power to decide how to spend or save it a message President Donald Trump has echoed in recent weeks. Republicans say the plan could also cut down on fraud in the health care system, pointing to a Government Accountability Office report that found some fake recipients were able to get coverage.The bill also includes new language limiting the use of Affordable Care Act money for abortion a dealbreaker for moderate Democrats who say they would have been willing to negotiate on the issue.
Uncertainty over costs
Health analysts warn that the plan won’t do much to help lower-income Affordable Care Act enrollees who rely on subsidies to afford their monthly insurance fees.The Republicans’ plan also requires enrollees to pick higher-deductible plans to be eligible for the payments meaning heavy users of health insurance may end up saddled with out-of-pocket costs far higher than the new influx of cash in their pockets.Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said the GOP proposal “leaves middle-class Americans saddled with sky-high premiums, and Big Insurance makes out like bandits by selling junk plans to families that desperately need health coverage.”“Instead of working with Democrats to stop this health cost crisis, Republicans are selling snake oil,” Wyden said.
Swenson reported from New York. Associated Press reporter Kevin Freking contributed to this report.
Mary Clare Jalonick and Ali Swenson, Associated Press
Reading the news, it can feel like no one is partying anymore.
People seem more excited to stay home than go out. Gen Z is drinking less than any other generation. Wellness clubs have replaced night clubs as the go-to spots to socialize.
But partying is not dead — priorities have simply shifted, as highlighted in the Evites Pregame Report 2026 released today.
The online invitations platform surveyed more than 5,000 party enthusiasts to uncover the hottest trends and the biggest pet peeves for party planning in 2026.
As it turns out, partying no longer happens only at the club. It has shifted to smaller, connection-focused affairs. After birthdays and holiday celebrations, watch parties came in as the third-most-popular event types at 49%, followed by book clubs at 43% and celebrating pets at 35%. After all, a dogs birthday party is still a party.
Gen Z has been declared generation stay-at-home. But that doesnt mean they arent inviting people over. According to Evite, home-based celebrations are booming as hosts prioritise comfort and intimate celebrations over big blow outs.
Post-pandemic, people discovered they prefer deeper, more meaningful connections over crowded events, and as a result their homes have become more central to their identity and social lives, Olivia Pollock, Evites Etiquette & Hosting Expert, tells Fast Company. Theres also a practical component at play. Hosting at home helps keep budgets manageable, 67% of respondents say they prefer affordable, personalized experiences.
If they arent going out, a new generation of hosts is instead getting creative at home, turning their apartments into makeshift coffeehouses and planning elaborate themed dinners designed with TikTok and Instagram in mind. If they are hosting outside the home, 69% favor outdoor and nature-based locations, with over half (52%) seeking unconventional venues.
In 2025, social media isnt just a tool, it’s the unofficial co-host at gatherings, says Pollock. Nearly a quarter of respondents plan to host content-friendly gatherings specifically designed to share online. That might mean a unique spin on a charcuterie board, a themed tablescape, or even personalized touches like namecards, knowing that guests will definitely want to take a post on their socials.
Partying, in whatever form, is more important than ever, particularly at a time when 57% of Americans are lonely. Younger generations are feeling it worse than older Americans, a recent Cigna survey shows. Those figures are unsurprising given that in 2023, only 4.1 percent of Americans attended or hosted social gatherings on a given weekend or holiday, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
The antidote would be a nationwide effort to get out and party more. Even if that looks like hosting a wine and cheese night at home or a watch party for the finale of your favorite
show rather than shaking ass at the club.
It also means showing up. Evite found 62% of respondents cited guests RSVP-ing “yes” and then bailing as a top pet peeve, with ignoring RSVP deadlines just behind at 57%.
Hosts also have a role to play. Being underprepared with a lack of details about the dress code or schedule is the cause of headaches for 67% of guests. Not enough food or drinks (49%) and poor scheduling or timing (39%) also are etiquette faux pas.
Alcohol, once a party staple, is now less of a go-to, as the sober-curious movement continues to gain ground. Those aged 34 and under are drinking about 10 percent less now compared with two decades ago, according to a 2023 Gallup poll. Half of hosts now strive to offer a variety of beverage options, with soda (48%), crafted mocktails (39%), and tea or coffee (37%)topping the list of preferred guest beverages.
In 2026, partying isnt going anywhere. It just looks a little different. The common thread is that people just want to connect, said Pollock. Regardless of the occasion, or the venue.
Consider this: You want to book a multicity, international trip with flights from New York City to London, then Paris, and then back to New York City. There are numerous variables in the mixdifferent airlines, various ticketing levels, and morethat make the booking more complicated than anticipated. Accordingly, you may end up booking several separate flights, with multiple tickets and confirmation codes to keep track of.
If you travel a lot, that can be a lot to manage. But Navan, a corporate travel and expense platform, says it has smoothed the whole process out for booking flights.
Navanwhich went public less than a month and a half ago, and mainly competes in the same space as companies such as Ramp and Concurannounced on Wednesday that it has unveiled a huge upgrade to its multicity booking process, making it easier than ever to book complex travel itineraries. Thats something that amounts to a rather large engineering breakthrough, its team says. While users previously could use Navan for exactly these types of complicated, multicity bookings, doing so, following the upgrades, is now much simpler.
These types of itineraries amount to around 10% of bookings on the platform, says Ian Fette, vice president of Engineering at Navan, but it wasnt the feature that got all the attention and love. However, the process has been massively upgraded, he says, although it took some time. Navan started working on the improved process during the second half of 2024.
And, as noted, its the myriad variables that come into play when booking multicity trips that made it such a daunting task for engineers.
Whats hard about multicity [itineraries]is not all airlines can handle all the itineraries you can throw at them, Fette says. Some airlines have partnerships and can sell one ticket that covers the whole journey, or you can construct itineraries where one airline can fulfill all the routes, he continues, but it may not be price competitivewe try to break it up and see if we can fill it as one ticket, and get a good price.
Previously, balancing simplicity and pricing for multicity bookings has been the goal for travelers, and it generally involved a one-ticket approach (comprising all flights) or a series of one-way flights. Navans upgraded system spares travelers from trying to do all that mental work of trying to put it together.
Fette says users are already lauding the changes, and that the upgrades lay the foundation for future enhancements to the Navan platform. This unlocks our ability to continue to iterate our ticketing intelligencehow we use the knowledge and data we have to drive you to the best pricing, he says. This is an ongoing area of investment for us, and its a huge step up.
A SpaceX initial public offering might be on the horizon.
The aerospace company, run by founder and CEO Elon Musk, is reportedly planning an IPO aimed at raising over $30 billion, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter.
The IPO could be as soon as mid- to late-2026 or 2027. In its recent 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook, PitchBook pointed to the rise in space-focused stock listings, citing favorable policies.
Fast Company has reached out to SpaceX for comment and will update this post if we hear back.
Reaching the $30 billion threshold would make SpaceX the largest IPO in historyand give it a reported $1.5 trillion valuation.
Oil company Saudi Aramco currently holds the record, raising $29 billion in 2019. It hit a $1.9 trillion valuation, selling 1.5% of its ownership.
Sources cited by Bloomberg claim that SpaceX will hit about $15 billion in revenue this year and estimate $22 billion to $24 billion in 2026. Most of that income is courtesy of Starlink, which has been used by governments and companies alike to provide satellite internet services.
Executives at SpaceX have floated the idea of Starlink spinning off and doing its own IPO. However, last year, CFO Bret Johnsen said it would likely be in the years to come.
Musk and the companys board have reportedly already started making plans for an IPO, including hiring. The funds would, in part, go toward developing space-based data centers, presumably to help power the enormous computing needs of the AI boom.
Stocks rise in space-adjacent companies
News of a potential SpaceX listing has led to a spike in share prices of related companies.
Take EchoStar Corporation, which sold spectrum licenses to SpaceX this fall. Between two separate deals, EchoStar received $11.1 billion in SpaceX private stock. The companys shares (Nasdaq: SATS) closed up about 6% on Tuesday and jumped nearly 7% in premarket trading on Wednesday.
Space transportation company Rocket Lab Corporation saw its shares (Nasdaq: RKLB) close up 3.6% and rise another 1.5% overnight.
Its a common experience: you search for white bean soup recipes one time on Instagram, and you are bombarded with white bean soup content on the app for seemingly all eternity.
Instagram wants to fix that. Starting today, the companys three billion users can have more control over their algorithm via a Your Algorithm feature. Its not quite Bluesky, or the Instagram of yore that only displayed content from accounts users followed, but it does let users select or unsubscribe from different topics.
The new feature, which leverages AI, lets users pick topics they want to see more or less of on their explore page. Users will first be able to see a list of suggested topics that their algorithm thinks they are interested in which they can modify. Users can also share their interests to their stories, allowing their followers to see and even replicate some of their feed.
[Image: Instagram]
We’re always trying to show people the best possible reels for them. After 2020 [we] slowly started figuring out how to do a good job of predicting people’s interests and showing them reels they’d be interested in, Tessa Lyons, Instagrams vice president of product, says. I think we do a pretty good job today, but we don’t always get it right, and we know that people’s interests change. What we really want to do is give people control over the experience that they have on Instagram.
In designing the feature, Instagram had to balance Reels’ utility as a discovery tool with the features that give users control over what they will see.
The ideal Reels experience is one that helps you go deeper on the interests you already have and then discover new interests that you might not even know about. And getting that balance right is really important, Lyons says, adding, [your algorithm] is one input we have into your Reels experience. So even if you add a handful of different interests, thats not going to be the only content you see. You’re still going to see other content as well.
Lyons also says that the feature can help Instagrams algorithm learn about users and serve them relevant content more quickly; after she adopted a cat and tuned her algorithm to feature more kitten content, her feed immediately updated to include relevant reels. In the past, the algorithm may have needed a few days to understand she wanted to see more.
By this same measure, the feature will likely improve the ad experience, as Instagram will be able to surface more targeted content for each user based on the interests they signal.
According to Lyons, the inspiration for the feature started as a meme on Threads a couple of years ago, when users started writing posts to their respective algorithms, asking it to connect them with different interests, like writers or books. It was just people expressing what they wanted from their Threads experience. Some of them would say, Dear Algorithm, I just dont want to see politics anymore. Im over it, Lyons says.
The economy has had a volatile year marked by ongoing headwinds and uncertainties. Persistent inflation, unpredictability around tariffs, and a stock market that many fear is in the midst of an AI-fueled bubble are among the factors impacting consumers’ spending power.
But there is one event today that will hopefully deliver some much-needed certainty to the economy and broader markets: the Federal Reserves interest rate cut announcement. Heres what you need to know about a possible Fed rate cut today.
What is the Fed rate cut announcement?
The Federal Reserve is Americas central bank. One of its main responsibilities is setting the country’s interest rates. These interest rates are set by the Feds primary policymaking body, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC is led by the chair of the Federal Reserve, who is currently Jerome Powell.
The FOMC considers a wide array of data that informs its decision to cut interest rates or not. That data includes labor reports, inflation rates, consumer confidence numbers, and gross domestic product (GDP) information.
Once the FOMC analyzes the data, the body will vote to do one of three things: raise interest rates, lower interest rates, or keep interest rates where they are. The current Fed interest rate is 3.75% to 4.00% (375 to 400 basis points).
What are the benefits of a Fed rate cut?
The main benefit of cutting interest rates is that it lowers the cost of borrowing money. If money is cheaper to borrow, consumers are more likely to take out loans, including mortgages, car loans, and increased credit card spending.
Businesses are also more likely to take out loans, since borrowing is cheaper. Companies typically use loans to expand their operations, boost hiring, or buy needed equipment or supplies.
Since borrowing is cheaper, lower interest rates can inject more money into the economy, thereby increasing spending.
Lower interest rates can also boost the stock and cryptocurrency markets, because when interest rates are lower, safer assets like bonds have a lower rate of return. This spurs investors to put their money into riskier assets, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, because they have the potential for higher returns.
What are the drawbacks of a Fed rate cut?
Low rates arent always a good thing. There are drawbacks to lower interest rates, too.
When interest rates are lower, anyone with a savings account earns less interest. This can especially hurt retirees, who often have more cash parked in savings accounts than their younger peers, and who may rely on their monthly interest earnings to pay for necessities.
Also, while lower interest rates can make everything from houses to cars more affordable, a plethora of cheaper money in the economy can have an inflationary effect, causing prices to rise, which negates the savings gained by the lower interest rates.
What is the likelihood of a Fed rate cut?
Right now, the current Federal Reserve interest rate is 3.75% to 4.00% (375 to 400 basis points).
The Federal Reserve and Powell are under extreme pressure from the Trump administration to lower rates. Because borrowing money would then be cheaper, lower rates would make many Americans feel like their purchasing power is going further as the holidays progress and we head into the new year.
That would be a political win for President Trump.
But the Fed is supposed to be politically neutral, and Powell has shown no signs that he or the FOMC will make a decision based on politics.
That said, many expect the Fed to lower interest rates today, but it likely won’t be by much.
Data compiled by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Groups Fed Watch shows an 89.9% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by a 25-basis-point range today.
If that scenario plays out, it means the federal interest rate range would drop from 3.75% to 4.00% (375 to 400 basis points) to 3.50% to 3.75% (350 to 375 basis points).
When is the Fed rate announcement?
The Federal Reserves calendar says it will announce its interest rate decision today, Wednesday, December 10.
What time is the Fed rate announcement?
The Federal Reserves interest rate announcement will be made at 2 p.m. ET today.
How are stocks performing ahead of the announcement?
Markets seem to be holding their collective breaths ahead of the Feds rate cut announcement today. As of the time of this writing, in premarket trading, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq futures are all relatively flat:
S&P Futures: down 0.04%
Dow Futures: down 0.06%
Nasdaq Futures: down 0.12%
How are crypto markets performing ahead of the announcement?
Many major cryptocurrencies are currently up over the past 24 hours ahead of the announcement. This suggests that crypto traders expect the Fed to cut rates, which could spur a rally in crypto markets. As of the time of this writing, heres how major cryptocurrencies are performing:
Bitcoin: up 1.9%
Ethereum: up 6.4%
XRP: up 0.2%
BNB: down 0.5%
Solana: up 3.2%
How can I watch the Fed rate announcement?
The Federal Reserve doesnt actually announce its decision live. Instead, at 2 p.m., it will issue its results via its website.
However, at 2:30 pm ET, the central bank will hold a press conference to discuss its decision on interest rates.
Youll be able to view a live stream of that press conference on the Federal Reserves YouTube channel.
Once upon a time, San Francisco was a manufacturing town. For decades, the Union Iron Works built shipssuch as the U.S. Navy’s U.S.S. Oregon (1893) and U.S.S. Wisconsin (1898)in its plant on Pier 70 in the neighborhood now known as Dogpatch. In recent years, that sprawling, long-abandoned complex has been rehabbed and filled with office space, housing, retail, and art studios. Among its tenants are startup accelerator Y Combinator and HR platform Gusto, neither of which has much in common with the Union Iron Works.
And then theres Astranis. The company is returning Pier 70 to its roots by applying human labor to turn raw materials into finished products. The products in question happen to be high-orbit satellites. Astranis has sent five of them into space, is currently building five more, and intends to scale up its capacity to manufacture 24 at a time.
Now, by the standards of consumer electronics, cranking out 24 of something may not sound like a feat. For satellites, however, it’s a completely unprecedented number for geostationary and high orbits, where these satellites have historically been built one at a time,” says Astranis cofounder and CEO John Gedmark.
Astranis headquarters at San Franciscos historic Pier 70. [Photo: Courtesy of Astranis]
Astraniss breakthrough isnt just about speed of production. Its MicroGEO satellites are remarkably compactabout the size of a commercial washing machine, downsized from typical school bus-sized units. They are designed to be affordable, in an industry where cost overruns in the billions have been common. Rather than relying on analog technology, they use software-defined radios, which make customization and updates far more practical.
So far, Astraniss quest has taken a decade and $800 million in funding from investors such as Andreessen Horowitz, BlackRock, and Fidelity. Signs that the company is on its way to success include its announcement in early August that two satellites it had launched for Anuvua provider of mobile Wi-Fi whose customers include Southwest Airlineshad reached orbit and were operating as intended. Later in the month, it said that it had been named as a prime contractor for the U.S. Space Force program, with an initial six-month contract to design and test a jam-resistant military satellite.
If Astranis is still in the process of proving the worth of its unique approach to satellites, its in part because what its trying to do is so complex that nobody has attempted it before. We had to go get a few hundred of the world’s best hardware engineers and put them all in one building, and have them working for years at a time, like a Manhattan Project, to get to this point, says Gedmark. To us, it’s not surprising that it hasn’t happened already, because it just turns out its really hard.
Spaces next frontiers
Astraniss current momentum is the culmination of Gedmarks entire career in space technology. The son of a doctor and a hospital chaplain, he was born and raised in Kentucky. After earning degrees in aerospace engineering from Purdue and Stanford, he found work at big aerospace and defense contractors but was frustrated by the industrys plodding pace. He then became director of rocket flight operations for the X Prize Foundation, which led to him cofounding and running a nonprofit trade group called the Commercial Space Federation (CSF).
These jobs exposed him to the progress being made by new-wave space startups such as SpaceX and Virgin Galactic. “I got to see the birth of this new industry,” he remembers.
During the first Obama administration, as the U.S. plotted a post-Space Shuttle future, Gedmarks role at the CSF allowed him to be part of the conversation. The ultimate decision was to rely on private companies to perform tasks such as delivering crew and cargo to the International Space Station, greatly accelerating the commercial space industry.
Astranis cofounder and CEO John Gedmark [Photo: Courtesy of Astranis]
Though Gedmark found this boom inspiring, he also identified a hole in it. “All the new activity and hype and excitement were in low earth orbit,” he says. “And nobody was doing things in these high orbits, like geostationary orbit [GEO]. And the crazy thing was that those orbits are actually incredibly important, and are historically where most of the value has been created in space.”
Like the International Space Station, most satellites are in low earth orbit, no more than 1,200 miles away. Geostationary orbit is 22,236 miles from us. Rockets cant get a satellite all the way there; the final leg of the journey requires onboard propulsion. But Gedmark and Astranis cofounder and CTO Ryan McLinko realized that even a small satellite in GEO could cover an entire medium-sized country with broadband connectivity, Gedmark explains.
That factand the potential for a startup to move more quickly than the satellite industrys giantsled them to start Astranis. In 2016, the company participated in Y Combinator’s accelerator program, years before they became Pier 70 neighbors. And a little over two years after its founding, it notched its first achievement by launching a 10-cm-square satellite, dubbed DemoSat 2, into orbit to help test its software-defined radio technology. “We decided when we were just a handful of people basically working out of an apartment that we wanted to put something in space and show we could do it quickly and show that it worked, says Gedmark.
Since then, Astranis has continued to chip away at its vision for transforming communications, though not without blips along the way. For example, the company didnt eet its original goal of launching its first satellite in 2019. After further pandemic-related delays, its Arcturus satellite took off on SpaceXs Falcon Heavy launch vehicle in April 2023. Problems with a component provided by a third-party supplier ultimately prevented Arcturus from fulfilling its original mission of providing internet access for an Alaska-based telecom company. Space is hard, noted Gedmark in a blog post about the mishap.
Astranis VP Christian Keil joined the company in 2019, when it had 50 employees. Praising Gedmark as super analytical and very, very detail oriented, he says that space is particularly hard when your approach involves so many disruptive elements.
We’ve learned so much from doing all these things for the first time that if you transported any one of us back seven years, wed be able to avoid some of the mistakes that we made along the way, he acknowledges. But thats part of doing something new.
Made in San Francisco
Almost eight years after its DemoSat 2 launch, Astranis has grown from a handful of people to 500 staffers. At first blush, it might be startling that the vast majority of them are in San Francisco. After all, the U.S. manufacturing renaissance, such as it is, has gravitated toward parts of the country where labor costs are lower. For instance, a few years ago, when Intel announced plans to dramatically ramp up its domestic chip production capacity, they involved expansion in Arizona and Ohio, both far afield of its Santa Clara, California headquarters.
Astranis staffers at work on one of the companys MicroGEO satellitesso called because theyre small by satellite standards and circle the earth in geostationary orbit. [Photo: Courtesy of Astranis]
But Gedmark, who relocated to the Bay Area in 2012, says that everything about what Astranis was trying to accomplish told him it should be in San Francisco, from getting access to capital to hiring people who might otherwise be working at companies such as Broadcom or Qualcomm. “The Bay Area has those talent pools across all those different specialties in one place, I think, quite uniquely,” he says. “And then there’s something in the air of this place, knowing that you can go start some crazy new idea and people will jump in quickly and work on it.”
The property the company ended up leasing at Pier 70 retains evocative evidence of its shipbuilding legacy. For instance, a vintage crane marked 30 TONS still hovers majestically from the ceiling. But the place also has more recent ties to the San Francisco innovation economyand maybe some reminders that not every hyper-ambitious attempt to change the world from San Francisco leads anywhere.
Thats because most of it was originally rehabbed for Uber ATG, the ride-hailing company’s gambit to develop its own self-driving vehicles. The handsome renovation brought the long-decaying space up to modern earthquake safety code and even won architectural awards. Soon thereafter, however, Uber gave up on building its own robotaxis. It ended up offloading ATG to the autonomous trucking company Aurora, providing Astranis with the opportunity to snag itself a freshly remodeled headquarters.
When the company expanded into an adjoining building, it found mysterious blueprints of giant orbs lying around. Only later did it learn that the previous occupant was a display technology startup that had been acquired by Madison Square Garden when it was creating Las Vegas’s Sphere.
Astranis needs as much space as it does because its taking on full responsibility for its satellites, from crafting components and developing software to owning and operating the fleet. As Steve Jobs might have put it, the company is building the whole widgetnot standard practice in the space business, where subcontracting and outsourcing are typical, and the companies that build satellites usually dont manage them once theyre in orbit.
Consequently, a portion of the companys San Francisco headquarters is devoted to a 24/7 mission control center. Gedmark describes the companys MicroGEO satellites as “pretty autonomous” and the atmosphere in mission control as “pretty chill,” though human oversight is crucial during launches and early deployment. It’s also occasionally necessary to fire thrusters to keep a satellite in its appointed orbital slot.
Astranis staffers monitoring satellites in orbit from the companys mission control center. [Photo: Courtesy of Astranis]
As for the manufacturing process, Gedmark says that one of the big lessons has been how hard it is to move fast when youre dependent on others. We’ve had to do a lot more in-house than we thought we were going to need to, he told me. Lead times are a lot longer than we thought they would be. And so, during my two visits to Astranis’s headquarters, the big news was the arrival ofan enormous piece of machining equipment known as the Makino Mag3.EX.
A lightly used second-hand modelGedmark thinks it was formerly used in the production of F-35 fighter jetsAstraniss Mag3.EX allows the company to make its own parts out of blocks of aluminum alloy. The process is responsible for the oily whiff of coolant in the air and produces detritus in the form of humongous quantities of tiny aluminum shards. They sit by the vatful near the Mag3.EX, awaiting recycling.
Before Astranis was able to crank out aluminum components on the premises, it contracted out to get ones made using honeycomb sandwich construction, a common technique in satellite manufacturing. Such parts are lightweight and sturdy. But you might have to wait a year for your order to be filled. Aluminum is a tad heavier, but Gedmark says that the trade-off is eminently worth it.
Astranis everywhere
Watching Astranis at work, its clear that the company has come a long way since it was an untested big idea. The companys original missioncutting satellites down to size to bring affordable connectivity to underserved parts of the worldremains critical, and the companys customer list is truly international, reflecting the U.S.s dominance of the commercial space industry. When [other countries] need something like this, they have to come to us, says Gedmark.
After Id toured the factory, Gedmark told me that one of the satellites Id seen in the process of being manufactured was for a customer in Thailand. Another was headed for the Philippines. Two more were for a Mexican internet service provider (ISP) that wants to provide 5 million people with broadband they can afford. Still another satellite currently in production was ordered by Taiwans largest telecommunications company. It will be the countrys first dedicated satellite.
A satellite assembly area at Astranis headquarters. [Photo: Courtesy of Astranis]
Taiwan also factors into a market that has emerged more recently for Astraniss satellites: defense applications. Thats because of the long-feared possibility of the country being invaded by China, which Gedmark says he believes could become a reality in two to three years. The U.S.s dependence on relatively few satellites could lead to war in space, with China seeking to hobble any attempts to come to Taiwans rescue.
“In a conflict with China over Taiwan, one of the first things that will happen literally on day oneis that a bunch of our most important military satellites will just blink out,” says Gedmark. “And by the way, we won’t necessarily know exactly who did it.” The impact would instantly overflow into civilian life, which is dependent on services such as GPS for everything from wireless phone calls to air traffic control.
Already, Gedmark says, China has invested in a bevy of anti-satellite technologies, from lasers to satellites equipped with robot arms that would allow them to grab other satellites. Its a terrifying prospect, but one that a swarm of MicroGEO satellites might be able to help forestall, he argues. The hope is that it’s a deterrent, if you have enough of these satellites up that the Chinese are just like, “Oh, okay, we can’t shoot all of them down. It’s just too many. Then hopefully they decide not to go after this tempting target.
Astranis fortifying the U.S.s ability to defend itself in such a scenario is dependent on the company realizing its targets for satellite production and deployment. But developments such as the company being named as a prime contractor suggest it could have a future in military technology, an industry long dominated by a few slow-moving behemoths. Last year, it was also one of four companies that won Space Force contracts to work on design concepts for Resilient GPS, a version of the technology less susceptible to attack.
According to Gedmark, the Pentagon is continuing to dial back the bureaucracy that has stood in the way of it acquiring technology from smaller companies, mirroring the changes at NASA that made the commercial space business possible. “It’s very exciting to see the Department of Defense, or the Department of War, come around,” he says, calling the organization by both its post-WWII name and the Trump administration’s bellicose rebrand. “It’s the exact same playbook.”
Could a relatively small company such as Astranis play a meaningful role in maintaining the U.S.s preeminence over China, this centurys other space superpower? Gedmark thinks so. And he contends that the entrepreneurial model that made his startup possible in the first place still beats Chinese central planning.
This is a uniquely American thing, he says. This is our edge. It’s our ability to get the capital together, get the people together, and go build a new thing that previously just did not exist. Maybe the fact that Astranis built its factory in San Franciscothe epicenter of that go-for-it spiritisnt such a shocker after all.
The front of the Wheaties box has served as a hall of fame for some of the greatest athletes of all time, from baseball star Lou Gehrig to boxer Muhammid Ali, basketball legend Michael Jordan, and seven-time Olympic gold medalist Simone Biles. Now, a fresh face is gracing the boxs hallowed orange frame: Marty Mauser, the fictional ping-pong player played by Timothée Chalamet in A24s upcoming film Marty Supreme.
[Screenshot: Instagram]
The cereal box comes just weeks after A24 released a now-viral 18-minute long parody of a marketing meeting to promote the movie (which releases on Christmas). In that video, Chalamet joins a Zoom call full of supposed marketing executives and proceeds to fill up the meetings airtime with increasingly ridiculous suggestions for the films marketing efforts, leaving the eight other members of the call scrambling to accommodate his wild ideas. Since then, several of the comedic ideas have, astonishingly, become realityincluding an ad campaign on bright orange blimps and, now, a $25 limited-edition Wheaties box.
Our current era of movie marketing is dominated by discussion of properties like Barbie and Wicked, which have rewritten the roles of brand partnerships by flooding stores everywhere with hundreds of collabs per film (Wicked part one, for example, netted more than 400 collabs). When Barbie can show up on a Heinz bottle and Elphaba in a box of mac n cheese, the novelty of movie-branded partnerships can start to wear off.
A24 is combatting that consumer fatigue with a masterclass marketing campaign for Marty Supreme. Its co-branded merch balances scarcity, which makes every drop feel aspirational, with a kind of unexpected flair that makes perfect sense for the filmand for its audience of young Chalamet fans.
How Marty Supreme is courting its young audience
In late November, Chalamet posted the address of a New York storefront with the message, C u at 7. By 4:30, fans were lined up around the block.
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They were queuing to get their hands on what turned out to be a line of Marty Supreme-themed merch, designed by the luxury L.A.-based brand Nahmias. Every item sold out, but one in particulara $250 windbreaker inspired by an outfit from the showwas the clear star of the show. Since then, its sold for $5,000 on Grailed and become a topic of considerable discourse on Reddit, where users are avidly yearning for a bigger drop.
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The Marty Supreme marketing campaign is leaning unabashedly on Chalamets star power and influence with a younger, primarily male audienceand clearly, its working. Chalamets audience wants a piece of his effortless swagger, and that becomes even more desirable when, instead of being available on the shelves of every local Target and countless digital Amazon storefronts (Wicked, were looking at you), his Marty Supreme collabs are only available in the most limited of supply. That thought process clearly also applies to this new collab with Wheaties.
Why the Marty Supreme marketing campaign is genius, actually
Like the windbreaker, the Wheaties collab is directly tied to a moment in the film, when Marty, (whos portrayed as an extremely confident, assertive salesman), says, It’s only a matter of time before I’m staring at you from the cover of a Wheaties box.
Its also a reference to the aforementioned Zoom parody, wherein Chalamet tries to convince the marketing team that Marty deserves a spot on the Wheaties box alongside names like Michael Jordan. To me, its marketing 101, Chalamet says in the video. Apparently, the team at Wheaties agrees.
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For more than 100 years, Wheaties has celebrated iconic athletes and moments in culture that transcend boundaries, from sports to unexpected heroes, says Emilie Knox, vice president and business unit director of cereal at General Mills. Marty Supreme fits squarely into that tradition as he embodies determination, heart, and the belief that greatness can come from the most unexpected places.
When designing the box, the Wheaties team leaned into its most recognizable brand elements, including its iconic orangewhich, coincidentally, is also the central color of Marty Supremeand the featured figure front-and-center.
A fictional athlete, with real return?
General Mills produced several thousand of the special edition boxes, each at the hefty price point of $25, which Knox says reflects the collectible nature of the box and its limited run. On Reddit, users are skeptical of the cost. One commenter wrote, This would be a cool giveaway gift, but for $25 you will not be staring at me from the cover of a Wheaties boxa sentiment that appears to be shared by several others.
[Image: A24/General Mills]
Wheaties declined to share specific numbers, but as of this writing, the limited box is already ‘sold out’ on the A24 website after going less just a day ago, creating a sense of scarcity among consumers (though its still available through Wheaties’ site). According to Knox, the early response has been extremely strong, with collectors moving quickly to get their hands on a box.
A24s marketing team has been incredible partners, Knox says. The playful teasers leading up to the drop, like the Zoom marketing call seen around the world, were driven by their creative genius, and weve had a lot of fun working together to continue building fan excitement.
Marty Supremes marketing prioritizes depth over breadth, opting to prioritize a few deeply thought-out collabs over an all-out blitz. Ironically, by limiting its marketing’s scope and availability, the films team has managed to break through the sea of content online and reach new audiences.
