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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home pricesas measured by the Zillow Home Value Indexwill rise +0.9% between January 2026 and January 2027. Thats a mild downward revision from its 12-month forecast published last month (+2.1%). At its latest reading, U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are up +0.2%. Zillows latest forecast expects prices to remain close to that pace. While Zillows national home price forecast isnt negativeit isnt exactly bullish either. Theyre calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth. What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate in 2026? window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros: Rockford, IL 5.4% Atlantic City, NJ 4.8% Syracuse, NY 4.4% Knoxville, TN 4.3% Hartford, CT 4.1% Norwich, CT 4.1% Green Bay, WI 4.0% Morristown, TN 4.0% Rochester, NY 3.9% New Haven, CT 3.9% Concord, NH 3.9% Pottsville, PA 3.9% Appleton, WI 3.8% Wausau, WI 3.8% Janesville, WI 3.7% Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros: Houma, LA -6.5% Lake Charles, LA -5.6% New Orleans, LA -4.1% Lafayette, LA -3.0% Alexandria, LA -3.0% Austin, TX -2.9% Chico, CA -2.9% Shreveport, LA -2.8% Beaumont, TX -2.7% San Antonio, TX -2.0% Boulder, CO -2.0% Punta Gorda, FL -2.0% Denver, CO -1.9% Corpus Christi, TX -1.8% Texarkana, TX -1.8% U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.01% year over year. If Zillows latest 12-month outlook (+2.0%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally. Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); With mortgage rates down slightly from their cycle high, home prices falling in some markets, and incomes continuing to tick up (at least faster than U.S. home prices), housing affordability is a bit less strained heading into spring 2026 than it was heading into spring 2025. Indeed, a new Zillow analysis shows a median-income U.S. household can now afford a $331,483 homean improvement of $30,302 since last year. In addition to improved affordability, that also reflects the continued inventory recovery, with 6% more homes on the market in January than a year earlier. The nearly 447,000 homes a median-income household could afford today represent 40.3% of listingsup from 34.8% a year ago, writes Zillow economist Kara Ng. In markets where home values have fallen, buyers dollars stretch even further in real terms with todays lower mortgage rates.
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E-Commerce
Earlier this year, I had coffee with the chief investment officer of a large public pension fund. His fund doesnt invest directly into venture (they have a fund of funds position instead), so my new CIO friend doesnt usually get pitched directly by VC funds. He doesnt spend a ton of time in tech circles either. When he does dip his toe in VC waters, he gets culture shock. I have trouble understanding VCs, he said. (Im paraphrasing.) By his estimation, people in traditional finance are easier to read. Their goal is to maximize returnsand the progress toward this goal is concrete, transparent, and measurable. Its really easy to understand what an asset managers motivations are when youre across the table from them in a professional capacity. People in politics are also easier to read. Their goal is to build power and wield influence. So when you talk to them, you can assume thats what theyre looking for in the relationship. Of course, both characterizations are limitingI know bankers who care about impact and at least one politician who cares about people (hes my cousin, so I can vouch). But as far as sweeping generalizations go, I can see where CIO is coming from. In sharp contrast to financiers and politicians, VC investors are slippery creatures. CIOs have a hard time decoding our language. Venture capitalists are asset managers, but we talk like superheroes. We speak in hyperbole and aim, unironically, to change the world. We are incessantly crushing it, even though our portfolios are laughably unprofitable. We sit on boards but dress in jeans and sneakers. We are herd animals who claim to be contrarian. Its hard for a CIO to judge how much of it is serious and how much of it is bullshit. And really, can you blame him? We sound like this because of founders I had a good laugh listening to that CIO, seeing this portrait of my industry from the eyes of one of its capital originators. But I do have a theory of where this language comes from, and why its mostly legit. It starts with founders. For most people, founding a companythe kind that scales massivelyis an irrational choice. Its extraordinarily difficult. You could be making way more money and working way fewer hours doing almost anything else. Chances are that youre going to fail, and youll have a pretty miserable time of it in the process. You have the odds of success of a lottery ticket, except that this particular lottery ticket costs 100% of your time, attention, and resources. Nobody in their right mind would do this for the money. There simply has to be a greater purpose. And for founders, there usually is: a problem they are compelled to solve. A mission they feel called to achieve. A chip on the shoulder and something to prove. Sometimes, they simply cant imagine doing anything else with their lives. Take it from an economist: These are all economically irrational reasons. You literally cannot buy a founders time with stability and a high salary. Its why founders rarely sound like mercenaries or power-hoardersbecause theyre neither. They are motivated by something much greater. And to rational people like the CIO, it all sounds lofty, bordering on ridiculous. Note, however, that this irrational exuberance makes for better, more resilient companies. It inspires angel investors and early employees, who forgo salary and stability for a dream. It keeps founding teams motivated for way longer than money alone does. Sometimes it even attracts customers and builds loyalty. Because a resonant mission takes you places that money alone cannot. In other words: In our industry, irrationality is a feature, not a bug. Venture is not a rational asset class VC investing is also predictably irrational. VC funds are not capital conservation vehiclestheyre long-term illiquid, unpredictable, and alpha-seeking. There are thousands of other, safer ways you could be deploying your capital, so when you choose VC, you do it for the dream. To quote Recast Capital founder and managing partner Courtney Russell McCrae: “Nobody invests in venture to make median returnswere all aiming for the top, plain and simple.” Thats what my CIO friend said, too. He said his company invests (a very tiny portion of its AUM) in venture because it is the only asset class that offers unlimited upside. Its the lottery ticket of finance. Asset managers sell a product to limited partners (LPs). VCs sell a dream. The same dream that founders sell to us. And that is why we all sound a little kooky. Not all VCs are equal Last year, I went viral for saying that megafunds are no longer venture capital funds. My argument is that theyre investing in consensus founders and consensus companiesnot in early-stage, high-risk, contrarian bets. Their largest deployments are into companies that are all but foretold to be winnersliterally too big, with too many giant powerful stakeholders, to fail. The bulk of their assets are being invested later and expected to generate faster and more predictable returns. In finance, they call this type of risk “beta.” Its fundamentally different from the “alpha” risk you underwrite when you invest in day-one, early-stage, non-consensus founders. These days, megafunds are making gobs of money on beta-seeking models. And it begs the question: Why do they still sound like VCs? Why do they want to hold on to the venture capital nomenclature, even when VC is a tiny proportion of their portfolio, just like CIOs? What do they lose if theyre called something else? It occurs to me that these guys fundamentally dont want to be just bankers and stewards of capitalthey want to be visionaries. Certainly, theres a coolness factor, and the influence that comes with investing in the bleeding edge. But also, I bet you can measure the difference between banker and visionary by the size of their management fees. For the record: I run a microfund, a fundamentally different vehicle and strategy than a megafund. I do not believe our funds should be analyzed togetherthey are fundamentally different assets, and warrant separate allocations, where you can compare like with like. If youre an LP, you are making bad decisions if you bucket all types of funds into a single giant VC bag. Youve been warned. Boutique VC is an irrational choice, too Speaking of irrational: Raising an early-stage microfund is an irrational choice, too. When you make all your money in carry, and very little in fees, youre betting completely on the upside, the dream. In the short term, you could be making way more money elsewhere. Thats why I see the same motivation among emerging venture capital fundsor boutique VCs, as the megafunds prefer we call ourselvesthan I do in founders. Nobody chooses to do this for rational reasons. We do it for unlimited upside. We do it for mission or lov of the craft. We do it because the future of technology and the future of humanity are all being written by early-stage startups and scientists and inventors and R&D labs, and we want to have a say in it. I personally do it because it is the purest incarnation of the American dreamthe idea that anyone can be the next founder to change the world, whether theyre consensus or not. This is what drives me. Its why I immigrated to America in the first place. I know now what I sound like when I say this. Maybe my pension fund friend is right to be confused. Maybe we do all sound like were full of shit sometimes. But the reason we sound like thisthe reason we talk about doing good and having impact and changing the world and making a differenceis because some of us founders and VCs actually mean it. And we wouldnt be doing this otherwise. This story was originally published in Leslie Feinzaigs Venture with Leslie newsletter.
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E-Commerce
Networking as a solopreneur can feel impossible. LinkedIn is full of the sort of hustle-culture aficionados who think yoga at 4 a.m. is something to brag about and who want you to buy their online course. Joining a networking referral group often costs money and can require a big time commitment without a guarantee of new leads. Asking friends and family to make referrals for you gives you flashbacks to that one summer in college when you got roped into selling Cutco knives. But solo businesses are already nontraditional, so you might as well embrace quirky networking opportunities. Some of my best freelancing leads have come from Tumblr, carpooling, and on one memorable occasion, the ladies room at a Nick Cave concert. If youre struggling with how to grow your network as a solopreneur, here are some unexpected strategies you can use. Invite yourself in When consultant Garima Verma wanted to break into the entertainment industry as a student at UCLA, she found that going to networking events and applying to every opportunity got her nowhere. So she decided she needed to get herself into the same room with the people she wanted to work for. There was an event that NBCUniversal was sponsoring, Verma says. I wasnt invited to it and I had nothing to do with it, but I volunteered to help set up and clean up the chairs. That meant she was there with the representatives at the end of the event and could get some one-on-one time with them. I was cleaning up and ended up talking toa little bit corneringa couple of reps, she says. Its how I got my first job in entertainment. Verma has carried that same energy throughout her career. In 2020, she realized she wanted to do more in the world and got really deep into the volunteer infrastructure of the Biden-Harris campaign. I just DM’d a million people on Twitter and told them to talk to me and give me an interview for a job, she says. That’s how I got my first job in politics. These days, Verma works for herself as a strategic advisor and consultant, but she continues to open her own doors. I don’t tend to get invited in the same way others might, and at a certain point I decided I’m going to invite myself in. Ditch the elevator pitch Author and speaker Jason Vitug talks about the networking anxiety that occurs in business environments. When youre expected to schmooze and impress other people, rather than simply connect, it puts too much pressure on every conversation. You might as well imagine Alec Baldwin telling you that coffee is for closers. Thats why Vitug was able to feel comfortable chatting with someone at what could have been a disastrous book signing. No one showed up, and his new contact wandered over to ask why Vitug was sitting there. The two men enjoyed a spirited conversation that landed Vitug a speaking gig. The bookstore environment allowed for a casual conversation, Vitug says. So my advice is to always be open to a conversation because theres a good chance if youre in the same place you have something in common. While Vitug certainly offered his new patron some form of his elevator pitch during their long talk, he didnt lead with it. Instead, he was open to making a real and friendly connection to someone who was curious about him. Immerse yourself in community Charlotte Baker provides full-service payroll for small businesses in Jacksonville, Florida, with her new solo business, Easy Pay. When she was getting the solo enterprise off the ground two years ago, she heard about a community of local businesswomen that she wanted to join. Women Business Owners of North Florida is an independent group, Baker says. Its not like a franchise or a paid networking group. Its a group of about 150 women whove all joined the organization to support and encourage each other. Unlike the traditional group networking model, Bakers community does not expect members to bring referrals each week. Instead, the group offers weekly get-togethers that foster personal and supportive relationshipswhich Baker has found to be invaluable both emotionally and professionally. Most of the women in the group don’t need my services, Baker says. But Ive built close friendships with these women, which has made my life a hundred times better as a business owner. And at least 60% of my revenue I can trace directly to recommendations from that group. Becoming part of a supportive community makes networking much less onerous, since your friends will recommend your business, just as you will recommend theirs. When networking looks like fun Networking as a solopreneur only feels agonizing if you assume it has to follow the corporate rulebook. Theres no reason you have to post performative dreck on LinkedIn, show up at networking events in powersuits, or stumble through memorized lines about your solo business to expand your network. Start by inviting yourself in. Whether you find a way to volunteer for an event that will put you proximity with someone youd like to talk to, or you keep knocking on doors (or sending DMs or emails) until you find someone willing to chat, remember that you can be friendly and persistentas long as youre willing to graciously take no for an answer. Then ditch your elevator pitch. Remember that youre just a person who can have casual conversations with other people. Leading with curiosity and interest rather than a business agenda is more likely to end with a new contact. Its also much less nerve-wracking than self-consciously trying to network. Finally, immerse yourself in your community. A large and supportive community will help do your networking for you, since people who care about you and believe in your business will naturally recommend you when they meet others who need your services. Doing all of that makes networking something you can enjoy rather than something you have to suffer through.
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E-Commerce
We are cooked. That’s the sentence I see with every AI-generated Instagram, TikTok, or YouTube short made with Seedance 2.0. And yes, we are. The walls of reality have finally vanished, sucked in by a black hole of Nvidia chips. So I’m going to Nancy Reagan the hell out of everyone and demand a global public service announcement like that old Just Say No to drugs campaign, which was everywhere when I was growing up. We need Mr. T back to make young and old fools listen up, because the companies printing money with their generative video tech are doing zilch to fix the planetary problem they have created. The message? Everyone should stop believing everything that moves online. Or at least question it all with a critical mind. All the time. It will be hard. Probably impossible. The instant satisfaction of buying into whatever candy social media throws at us, algorithmically tuned to support our preconceived ideas, is too much to resist. We want to believe because dopamine is so yummy. And the digital overlords of Silicon Valley and Beijing know it. Thats why they have officially trampled our already fragile grasp on the truth with the release of models capable of manufacturing clips that are indistinguishable from physical life. AI models like ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 can wolf down up to a dozen reference filesimages, audio tracks, and camera movement samplesto flawlessly synthesize an alternate reality with no uncanny valley. And it costs only pennies do so. We have effectively handed the keys to the multiverse to any basement-dwelling sociopath with a Wi-Fi connection. Tal Hagin, an information warfare analyst, told Euronews exactly where we stand: We are no longer at the stage where it’s six months away. We are already there: unable to identify what’s AI and what’s not. The same computer industry that has destroyed the space-time fabric has failed to deliver its Content Authenticity Initiative, which promised a way to certify and label truly real videos. Imagine that. So someone needs to educate people to doubt everything they see online. If you think Im exaggerating the immediate danger, just look at the circus of Nicolás Maduros capture by U.S. Special Forces in January. There was no Seedance 2.0 then (less than two months ago!), but social media was instantly paralyzed by a flood of highly realistic, completely believable AI-generated images of the ousted Venezuelan leader. Across X, TikTok, and Instagram, synthetic media of Maduro in custody or crowds of Venezuelans celebrating racked up millions of views in mere hours. Millions of peopleincluding the usual politicians and tech billionaires whose thumbs are perpetually superglued to the retweet buttonswallowed the digital slop whole. Primeras imágenes de Nicolás Maduro capturado. pic.twitter.com/d8RjDNC3zm— SheIby (@TommyShelby_30) January 3, 2026 Hagin noted that the moment an information vacuum opened regarding Maduro’s capture, individuals started uploading AI-generated images of Maduro in custody of the U.S. Special Forces in order to fill that gap. The most worrying stuff is not those big news moments, which will get fact-checked promptly. Its the little things, the daily stuff that will have greater impact on our psyches. The local news, the scams, the bullying in school, the gossip about that neighbor everyone hates, the teacher, the office enemy, the ex-partner . . . When reality breaks, replaced by a manufactured one, everyone will suffer. So I’m calling for the Mother of All PSAs right now. We cannot sit around waiting for the tech industry to self-regulate, because history proves its leaders possess the moral compass of a weather vane. We need a massive, impossible-to-ignore, flashing-red-light educational campaign pounded into the retinas of every smartphone user on Earth. We need to grab the public by the lapels and shake them until they finally understand that their own eyes and ears are now compromised enemy combatants. So lets do that. Let’s not assume that people will eventually get it because millions of lives and minds are at stake. For the next year or so, let’s launch a worldwide education campaign where every commercial break, every YouTube pre-roll, and every TikTok swipe features a brutal, relentless reminder that objective reality is officially a relic of the past. Everyone must build up and wear psychological armor like we are living in an MMORPG from hell. This needs to be the 21st-century equivalent of Stop, Drop, and Roll, except instead of being physically on fire, your perception of truth is being incinerated by a server farm in Guangdong. We have to normalize radical skepticism before its too late. But since nobody is going to do that, just remember, kids: Don’t believe everything you see. Love your mama. And don’t do drugs. Or do drugs because realityis not real. Who the hell cares anymore?
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E-Commerce
Ill never forget the first time I heard someone say, This meeting couldve been an email. You can probably imagine exactly the voice they said it in (and what their face looked like). Youre probably heard it many times yourself. The meeting in question was a project check-in with multiple departments, where wed spent an hour listening to one person giving an update that could have been written in a few bullet points. The rest of us just sat there, nodding along, waiting for it to end. No one really needed to speak, no one gave feedback, and no one asked any questions. As we all shuffled out, someone muttered, Well, that was a waste of time, and I couldnt help but agree. The wasted hour likely meant Id be working an extra hour that night with my laptop cracked open on my couch. It got me thinking: Should we cancel these types of meetings altogether and just rely on email updates? Whats the point of meeting if its not helping anyone? Ditch the conference room One of the biggest misconceptions about meetings is that they always need to be in a formal conference room with a set agenda and an hour on the clock. In reality, the most effective meetings dont always look like that, especially depending on your industry or the makeup of your team. For example, if youre working in health care, manufacturing, or retail, your meetings might take the form of pre- or post-shift huddles. For teams that work remotely or across different time zones, you may turn instead to asynchronous communication methods, like shared documents or video updates, instead of meeting in real time. The key is to adapt your meeting style to the needs of your team. But effective meetings arent just about planning; theyre also about how you engage with your team during them. This is where active listening becomes essential. For managers, using the Pause-Consider-Act framework can help ensure your meetings are effective and purposeful. Its all about stopping to think about the structure, content, and timing of your meetings. 1. Pause Take a step back and assess your current meetings. Are they too frequent? Too far apart? Are you meeting with no real purpose? Look at your schedule and figure out where things might need to be adjusted. If you find your team members constantly knocking on your door or sending chat messages because they dont have scheduled time with you, its a sign you might need more regular time with your team members. 2. Consider Think about the purpose of each meeting. What are you trying to accomplish? For one-on-ones, the goal might be to check in on progress, provide feedback, or support your team members development. Team meetings could include brainstorming, decision-making, or updates. Be clear about what each meeting is for, and make sure your team knows whats expected of them. Consider teammates perspectivedo they feel like theyre too busy for the meeting? Are they feeling overwhelmed and just need more structure? Or do they feel like you already know everything and dont see the need to communicate details? Looking at these angles, adjust your approach accordingly. (Remember that if you fear overcommunicating, that rarely happens. Its more often the opposite: team members would love to hear more from you, not less.) 3. Act Implement changes that make your meetings more structured and intentional. Use shared agendas to help your team prepare, and make sure youre prepared, too. Show up on time, be present, and make sure your team walks away with clear action items. For example, if youre setting up a one-on-one, include questions about workload, challenges, and opportunities for growth. Make these meetings actionable by leaving each one with the next steps for both you and your team members. Let them know their concerns have been heard, and show them how youre going to support them moving forward. Moving your meetings along You dont want people dreading a meeting invitebut some might be. Not to your face; more likely to each other, or quietly hoping it gets cancelled. That usually happens when meetings lack a clear purpose and feel like they exist just for the sake of existing. Every meeting should have a reason to get that specific group together. Sometimes its about business needssharing information, making decisions, solving problems. Other times its about something thats equally important: building connection, and recognizing the humans doing the work. When meetings have intention, they make work easier, not harder. They help people understand what matters, whats expected of them, and how their work connects to everyone elses. But that only happens when someone is deliberate about it, and that someone can be you. When you Pause to take a real look at the meetings youre running, Consider what your team actually needs from that time together, and Act to structure (or restructure) them with purpose, you turn time spent into time invested. And sometimes the best compliment youll ever get as a manager will be someone walking out of the room saying, That was actually a really good meeting. Adapted from The Manager Method: A Practical Framework to Lead, Support, and Get Results by Ashley Herd (Hay House Business, February 2026).
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E-Commerce