Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.
Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home pricesas measured by the Zillow Home Value Indexwill rise +0.9% between January 2026 and January 2027.
Thats a mild downward revision from its 12-month forecast published last month (+2.1%).
At its latest reading, U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are up +0.2%. Zillows latest forecast expects prices to remain close to that pace.
While Zillows national home price forecast isnt negativeit isnt exactly bullish either. Theyre calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.
What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate in 2026?
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:
Rockford, IL 5.4%
Atlantic City, NJ 4.8%
Syracuse, NY 4.4%
Knoxville, TN 4.3%
Hartford, CT 4.1%
Norwich, CT 4.1%
Green Bay, WI 4.0%
Morristown, TN 4.0%
Rochester, NY 3.9%
New Haven, CT 3.9%
Concord, NH 3.9%
Pottsville, PA 3.9%
Appleton, WI 3.8%
Wausau, WI 3.8%
Janesville, WI 3.7%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline between January 2026 and January 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:
Houma, LA -6.5%
Lake Charles, LA -5.6%
New Orleans, LA -4.1%
Lafayette, LA -3.0%
Alexandria, LA -3.0%
Austin, TX -2.9%
Chico, CA -2.9%
Shreveport, LA -2.8%
Beaumont, TX -2.7%
San Antonio, TX -2.0%
Boulder, CO -2.0%
Punta Gorda, FL -2.0%
Denver, CO -1.9%
Corpus Christi, TX -1.8%
Texarkana, TX -1.8%
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.01% year over year. If Zillows latest 12-month outlook (+2.0%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally.
Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
With mortgage rates down slightly from their cycle high, home prices falling in some markets, and incomes continuing to tick up (at least faster than U.S. home prices), housing affordability is a bit less strained heading into spring 2026 than it was heading into spring 2025.
Indeed, a new Zillow analysis shows a median-income U.S. household can now afford a $331,483 homean improvement of $30,302 since last year.
In addition to improved affordability, that also reflects the continued inventory recovery, with 6% more homes on the market in January than a year earlier. The nearly 447,000 homes a median-income household could afford today represent 40.3% of listingsup from 34.8% a year ago, writes Zillow economist Kara Ng. In markets where home values have fallen, buyers dollars stretch even further in real terms with todays lower mortgage rates.
