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The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays will also be postponed.If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it or at least leaves it unchanged when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.“The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.“We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.“Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17. Christopher Rugaber and Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writers
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E-Commerce
Its the dream: You finish a huge project that wins widespread acclaimfrom your boss, your peers, your clients, your friends and family. Youre flying high. The world should be your oyster. And yet? You cant find the inspiration to follow up. Your productivity dries up. Youre afraid lightning wont strike twice. You fear being a one-hit wonder. Maybe not in the obsolete pop star sensebut in the professional, creative, successful sense. Its a horrible, limiting feeling that kills your productivity, not to mention confidence. But according to research from the Rotterdam School of Management in the Netherlands, theres a cause for the feelings of inadequacy following a big accomplishment. And better understanding this phenomenon can help to break through that mental block. In this paid Premium story, youll: Better understand why success makes you scared How to trick your brain out of the paralyzing thought loop Learn how to knock it out of the park a second time Feeling marked by success The research points to something called a creative identity threat, in which you become so attached to your reputation for genius (or, well near genius), that you fear putting it at risk with another project. This paralyzes original thinkingmaking a sophomore slump almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Dirk Deichmann, one of the researchers behind the Rotterdam study, says that the inspiration for this project was the product of living in a flat above a cookbook store. He was fascinated by the sheer variety of titles in their window. You can do endless combinations with new categories [of cuisine], new techniques, and materials, he says. So as a creativity researcher, he immediately started wondering what kinds of factors would influence a cookbook authors success. Working with Markus Baer, a professor of organizational behavior at Washington University in St. Louis, he turned to data from the U.K.s cookbook market, looking at detailed records of year-by-year sales. They found that around 50% of first-time authors fail to write another book in the five years following their debut. Now, this could occur for a variety of reasons. Perhaps the sales of the first book were dreadful. But in many cases, it was the opposite: It was often the people with the most original ideas and the greatest acclaim who failed to publish a second title. The phenomenon, they suspected, could be explained by an area of psychology known as role identity theory: how certain roles become embedded in our sense of who we are. If we have received extraordinary praise for our ingenuity, then our reputation for creativity may become central to our identity. We fear that crown slipping, and so we (counter-intuitively) avoid new creative adventuresin case we fail to meet the same acclaim a second time. Fear of a jeopardized reputation Deichmann and Baer decided to test this hypothesis and explore this phenomenon of self-sabotage. They measured how novel each cookbook on their list was (by analyzing publishers online descriptions of its contents), as well as how many awards each book received, if any. Sure enough, the more creative someones debut had beenand the more acclaimed they had receivedthe less likely they were to publish a sequel. Success, it seems, can be a poisoned chalice. For further evidence, Deichmann and Baer decided to recreate the phenomenon with participants in the lab. In one experiment, the participants were asked to come up with a concept for a new cookbook. Some were told that they had shown great originality, while the rest were told their idea was solid and traditional. These two groups were divided again, with roughly half from each receiving additional recognition by being told their idea was likely to make a big splashleading them to be featured on the cover of the universitys magazine. Finally, all participants were offered the chance to pitch a second cookbook concept. As expected, the people who had been singled out for their creativity, and won the additional recognition of the magazine cover, were significantly less likely to propose a follow-up idea. Crucially, a questionnaire about their feelings confirmed that this reluctance stemmed from their fears of losing their creative identity. They were more likely to agree with the statement the thought of coming up with a new idea for a second book makes me feel like I could jeopardize my reputation as a creative producer, for instance. A creative identity threat may be prevalent in many domains, Deichmann suggests. Any time you allow your ego to depend on the acclaim you hope to receive for a project, be it a killer marketing campaign, an ingenious design or an outstanding product line, you could find yourself struggling to come up with more new ideas. Escaping the trap If you worry about suffering from creative identity threat, Deichmann has a couple of suggestions. The first is collaboration. Find someone, or a group of people, who might be able to contribute to your next project. That way, the creative identity threat doesnt lie so heavily on you, but you share it. The second is to try to focus your mind on the creative process, rather than obsessing about the end goal, which inhibits the free-flowing thoughts that are essential for idea generation. This fits with research by Ella Miron-Spektor, professor of organizational behavior at the INSEAD business school in Fontainebleau, France. Shes examined how peoples goal orientation can influence their creativity. Some people are performance oriented (worried about how their results compare to their peers); others are learning oriented (focused on building skills). In one study, Miron-Spektor looked to seven years of data from a tech company that had introduced an innovation program asking employees to suggest ways to improve their processes or products, which were then judged by an expert panel. She found that learning-oriented people produced more ideas, and the quality of those ideas tended to grow over time. Meanwhile, the performance-oriented people tended to dry up quickly. Finally, Deichmanns third piece of advice: Establish a creative routine. After a big success, you may feel especially anxious if you simply wait for your next eureka! moment to land by change. But you may feel greater confidence if you can find a systematic process to find and test ideas. An inventor or designer, for example, might start out by interviewing and observing their potential customers to suggest new markets to exploit: You define a problem, you generate different ideas for that problem, and you prototype. There is no guarantee that inspiration will strike the same mind twicebut a little courage, perseverance, and strategy can greatly enhance the chances that your genius will burn long into the future.
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E-Commerce
Think about the last piece of health advice you actually followed. Chances are, it wasnt from a medical journal or even a doctors office. Most likely it was from a colleague, a neighbor, or a trusted friendthe kind of advice that feels personal and authentic. As humans, were wired to trust people we know or feel like we know. Thats why two-thirds of Americans now seek health information on Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and other social platforms, where its easy to connect with others who have relatable voices or similar stories. The default ways we explored our symptoms in the past, i.e., by seeing a doctor or referencing a handful of known credible sources, are no longer the primary ways people are getting their health information. Theyre following influencers to understand everything from hormone balancing hacks to what its like living with Type 1 diabetes or managing postpartum depression. These conversations can introduce potential risks like spreading misinformation, oversimplifying complex treatments, or turning serious health decisions into viral challenges. They can also be used to raise awareness and create supportive communities. With such high stakes, brands cant afford to stay on the sidelines. Healthcare needs a different influencer playbook Healthcare has been slower to embrace influencer marketing as a tacticand there are plenty of good reasons why. Its inconvenient when a new lipstick advertised by your favorite beauty influencer disappoints. Maybe the experience hurts the brands reputation a bit, too. But when health advice goes wrong, it can prove outright dangerous. Netflixs (Un)Well documentary series famously spotlighted influencers touting miracle cures that were later debunked as ineffective or even harmful. Yet, the reality is consumers are turning to peers, not professionals, for relatable health advicewhether brands join the conversation or not. Avoiding these spaces altogether means a missed opportunity to meet patients where theyre already seeking and sharing health information. The path forward isnt about copying retail or lifestyle influencer tactics. Its about creating approaches rooted in accuracy, empathy, and meaningful patient engagementshowing up as educators and trusted partners, not product pushers. 5 ways health brands can reimagine influencer marketing More than 8 in 10 people seeking health information on social media are concerned about incorrect or misleading medical information. For health brands, theres an opportunityand I would argue, a responsibilityto approach influencer marketing differently. Instead of chasing quick hits and conversions, influencer programs need to rethink the role of content creators as storytellers and community builders who can help make health information more accessible and actionable. Here are five tactics where Im seeing success: Tap into peer-to-peer power Healthcare is deeply personal, and people trust advice from those whove lived similar experiences. Although medical experts like Sanjay Gupta or celebrity wellness figures like Gwyneth Paltrow hold substantial authority and reach, consumers are increasingly turning to patients, caregivers, and advocates for more tailored guidance. That could be a person sharing their chemotherapy journey on TikTok or a caregiver offering advice in a Facebook group about supporting elderly parents at home. Authentic voices like these help simplify complex topics, offer emotional support, and make care feel more accessible. Reflect audiences to earn trust Our health systems have historically underserved and excluded certain groups, and people in these communities maintain long-standing skepticism toward healthcare leaders. Acknowledging this reality is the first step toward driving more meaningful engagement online. Trusted peers can open doors brands alone cant unlock, especially when they better represent or reflect the audiences were hoping to reach. Many of these voices already exist within clinical trial communities, patient advocacy groups, or condition-specific networksand theyre eager to share whats worked for them with others. Brands can equip these influencers with the tools, training, and information to responsibly educate and empower. Emphasize storytelling over hard sales On social media and elsewhere, our goal isnt pushing products. Our focus is empowering people with accessible, credible information to make better decisions about their own lives. Influencer strategies must move away from transactional endorsements and prioritize authentic, accurate, and advocacy-driven storytelling. Overly polished or promotional messages feel disconnected from the emotional weight health decisions carry. Its important to highlight real journeys and offer useful tips and resources consistently across channels. This approach lets audiences see how products fit into their bigger picture of living well. Think beyond ‘just another channel’ Influencer engagement isn’t just another channel in an omnichannel mix. That strategy is woefully outdated and wont generate the desired ROI. Modern influencer marketing is authentic, creative content that meets people where they already are: on TikTok, yes, but also in local forums, community centers, or college campuses where health decisions are also shaped. Dont force traditional campaigns into influencer spaces. Also, avoid relying on top-down advertising to enter peer-driven forums. Instead, build custom influencer marketing programs unique to where conversations naturally happen and empower credible voices to participate meaningfully in the discussions where they fit best. Build in governance without killing authenticity In such a highly regulated industry, health brands are understandably concerned that an influencer might say something off-script that could damage the brand or violate compliance standards. But we dont need to sacrifice authenticity to manage these risks. The key is a proactive governance model that sets clear expectations for influencers, provides the necessary training, and establishes content guardrails, fact-checking, and formal review and approval processes. Its also critical to put in place a response plan if something inaccurate, misleading, or off-brand is posted. This isnt about over-policing content. Its about giving brands and influencers the structure and support to engage confidently, knowing theres a safety net in place. Join health and wellness conversations thughtfully Health brands are no longer the only ones shaping narratives. They now share the space with patients, caregivers, advocates, and people seeking and sharing advice across Facebook groups, Reddit threads, and other online communities. Instead of trying to control these conversations, brands can contribute meaningfully through a more collaborative approach. When influencers are treated as allies rather than advertisements, brands earn trust, reduce misinformation, and ultimately help people make better, more informed health decisions.
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E-Commerce
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