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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is heating up. Since the national Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country that shift has varied significantly. Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has jumped above pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced softer home price growth (or outright price declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, local housing markets where active inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months. Where is inventory heading deeper into summer? As ResiClub communicated to ResiClub PRO members in late 2023and reaffirmed last fallwe expect national active inventory to approach pre-pandemic 2019 levels in the second half of 2025. Thats still the trajectory were on. National active listings are on the rise (+28.9% between June 2024 and June 2025). This indicates that homebuyers have gained some leverage in many parts of the country over the past year. Some sellers markets have turned into balanced markets, and more balanced markets have turned into buyers markets. Nationally, were still below pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels (-11.3% below June 2019) and some resale markets, in particular big chunks of Midwest and Northeast, still remain tight-ish. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); June inventory/active listings* total, according to Realtor.com: June 2017 -> 1,292,371 June 2018 -> 1,216,504 June 2019 -> 1,219,807 June 2020 -> 871,557 June 2021 -> 492,425 (overheating during the Pandemic Housing Boom) June 2022 -> 573,650 June 2023 -> 614,326 June 2024 -> 839,992 June 2025 -> 1,082,520 IF we maintain the current year-over-year pace of inventory growth (+242,528 homes for sale), we’d have: 1,325,048 active inventory come June 2026 1,567,576 active inventory come June 2027 Right now, were looking at state inventory data. (ResiClub PRO members [paid tier] will get our monthly deep dive analysis looking at inventory shifts and signals for over 800 metro areas and 3,000 counties.) Below is the year-over-year percentage change by state. Click here to view an interactive version of the year-over-year map below !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); While active housing inventory is rising in most markets on a year-over-year basis, some markets still remain tight-ish (although it’s loosening in those places too). As ResiClub has been documenting, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest and Northeast. Thats where home sellers this spring had, relatively speaking, more power. In contrast, active housing inventory for sale has neared or surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels in many parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, including metro area housing markets such as Punta Gorda and Austin. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home prices getting stretched compared to local incomes. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend was accelerated further by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives (if they have the margins to do so) to maintain sales in a shifted market, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market: Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. That puts additional upward pressure on resale inventory. In recent months, that softening has accelerated again in West Coast markets tooincluding much of California. Click here to view an interactive version of the map below !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); At the end of June 2025, 10 states were above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventor levels: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Hawaii, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington. (The District of Columbiawhich we left out of this analysisis also back above pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels too. Weakness in D.C. proper predates the current admins job cuts.) !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); Big picture: Over the past few years weve observed a softening across many housing markets as strained affordability tempers the fervor of a market that was unsustainably hot during the Pandemic Housing Boom. While home prices are falling in many pockets of the Sun Belt, a big chunk of Northeast and Midwest markets saw a little price appreciation this spring. That said, given the current softening, ResiClub expects that as the year progresses, more markets will fall into the year-over-year decline camp. Below is another version of the table abovebut this one includes every month since January 2017. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); If youd like to further examine the monthly state inventory figures, use the interactive below. (To better understand ongoing softness and weakness across Florida, read this ResiClub PRO report.) !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}();
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An infectious disease once eradicated in the U.S. is making a grim comeback this year. New CDC data reported on Wednesday reveals that the country tallied its highest number of measles cases since 1992. As of July 8, the U.S. has reported 1,288 cases of measles across 39 states. Of those documented measles cases, almost 90% are concentrated in outbreaks of three or more cases. The 2025 case tally halfway through the year already exceeds the post-1992 record of 1,274 measles cases reported in 2019. While the official measles numbers are alarming as is, any published number is likely an undercount due to the likelihood of unreported cases. A wildly contagious virus that poses a particular risk to children, measles was once considered a disease of the past in the U.S. due to widespread uptake of a safe, effective vaccine. The CDC declared measles officially eliminated in the U.S. in 2000, a milestone the agencys website still hails as a historic achievement attributable to a highly effective vaccination program in the country. Of the 1,288 reported measles cases this year, 29% were children under age 5 and two-thirds of the reported measles infections were people under the age of 19. Of those infected, 92% were either unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status, while 8% had received at least one dose of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. Of the total cases, 13% resulted in hospitalization and three measles deaths have been reported so far. Clusters of measles outbreaks While cases have been documented across most states, a major measles outbreak in Texas sent case counts soaring this year. By early July, Texas had reported 753 measles cases, mostly concentrated in a Mennonite community in Gaines County, near the border with New Mexico. Gaines County is one of the least-vaccinated areas of Texas, with almost 14% of school-aged children skipping at least one vaccine dose during the last school year. Beyond major outbreaks like the one in Texas, measles is making inroads in places that havent reported cases in years. North Dakota recorded its first case in more than a decade in May, when the spread of measles was limited to 11 states. When it gains a foothold in unvaccinated communities, measles infections spread like wildfire. The virus is extraordinarily contagious and can survive in the air hours after an infected person sneezes or coughs. An estimated 9 out of 10 nonimmune people exposed to the measles virus go on to become infecteda rate that outstrips COVID-19, the flu, and even the deadly Ebola virus. While vaccines are required for students in all 50 states, the majority of states let students opt out for personal or religious reasons, including Texas. Around the country, more parents of school-aged children are taking that out and declining vaccines in recent years. From 2019 to 2023, measles vaccination rates fell from 95% to 92%. That 95% threshold is important: A community is considered protected against the measles virus when 95% of its members are vaccinated. In Texas, kindergarten vaccination rates are now under 95% in half of counties around the state. National vaccination rates arent declining in a vacuum. Vaccine skepticismonce a fringe belief in the U.S.has become supercharged in recent years, with a proliferation of misinformation powering its rise. Political leaders have seized on worries about vaccine safety to sow political divisions and in some cases to cash in on the millions flowing to anti-vaccine causes. Most prominent among them is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who after being appointed by President Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services now shapes the national conversation around vaccines. Earlier this week, a group of major medical organizations including the American Academy of Pediatrics sued HHS and Kennedy, alleging that he made unlawful, unilateral vaccine changes, including withdrawing the CDCs recommendation of the COVID-19 vaccine for pregnant women and children.
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E-Commerce
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company said Wednesday that it’s taking down inappropriate posts” made by its Grok chatbot, which appeared to include antisemitic comments that praised Adolf Hitler. Grok was developed by Musks xAI and pitched as alternative to woke AI interactions from rival chatbots like Googles Gemini, or OpenAIs ChatGPT. Musk said Friday that Grok has been improved significantly, and users should notice a difference. Since then, Grok has shared several antisemitic posts, including the trope that Jews run Hollywood, and denied that such a stance could be described as Nazism. Labeling truths as hate speech stifles discussion, Grok said. It also appeared to praise Hitler, according to screenshots of posts that have now apparently been deleted. After making one of the posts, Grok walked back the comments, saying it was an unacceptable error from an earlier model iteration, swiftly deleted” and that it condemned “Nazism and Hitler unequivocally his actions were genocidal horrors. We are aware of recent posts made by Grok and are actively working to remove the inappropriate posts, the Grok account posted early Wednesday, without being more specific. “Since being made aware of the content, xAI has taken action to ban hate speech before Grok posts on X. xAI is training only truth-seeking and thanks to the millions of users on X, we are able to quickly identify and update the model where training could be improved. The Anti-Defamation League, which works to combat antisemitism, called out Grok’s behavior. What we are seeing from Grok LLM right now is irresponsible, dangerous and antisemitic, plain and simple, the group said in a post on X. This supercharging of extremist rhetoric will only amplify and encourage the antisemitism that is already surging on X and many other platforms. Musk later waded into the debate, alleging that some users may have been trying to manipulate Grok into making the statements. Grok was too compliant to user prompts. Too eager to please and be manipulated, essentially. That is being addressed, he wrote on X, in response to comments that a user was trying to get Grok to make controversial and politically incorrect statements. Also Wednesday, a court in Turkey ordered a ban on Grok and Poland’s digital minister said he would report the chatbot to the European Commission after it made vulgar comments about politicians and public figures in both countries. Krzysztof Gawkowski, who’s also Poland’s deputy prime minister, told private broadcaster RMF FM that his ministry would report Grok for investigation and, if necessary, imposing a fine on X. Under an EU digital law, social media platforms are required to protect users or face hefty fines. I have the impression that were entering a higher level of hate speech, which is controlled by algorithms, and that turning a blind eye . . . is a mistake that could cost people in the future, Gawkowski told the station. Turkey’s pro-government A Haber news channel reported that Grok posted vulgarities about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his late mother and well-known personalities. Offensive responses were also directed toward modern Turkeys founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, other media outlets said. That prompted the Ankara public prosecutor to file for the imposition of restrictions under Turkeys internet law, citing a threat to public order. A criminal court approved the request early on Wednesday, ordering the countrys telecommunications authority to enforce the ban. It’s not the first time Grok’s behavior has raised questions. Earlier this year the chatbot kept talking about South African racial politics and the subject of white genocide despite being asked a variety of questions, most of which had nothing to do with the country. An unauthorized modification was behind the problem, xAI said.
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