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The ongoing tariff war, the potential end of federal incentives, and a general slowdown in consumer demand all spell uncertainty for the future of electric vehicles in the United Statesand for automakers future product lineups. Thats according to a recent analysis from Bank of America, which released a Car Wars report looking at the challenges U.S. automakers are currently facing, and what that means for future EV models. The unprecedented EV head-fake has wreaked havoc on product plans. This has driven a pothole in product launches in Model Years 2026 and 2027, Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy wrote in the report. “The next four-plus years will be the most uncertain and volatile time in product strategy ever. To deal with those uncertainties, Bank of America analysts recommend automakers back away from EV models and instead lean heavily into their core [internal combustion engine] product portfolios to generate the capital to fund the uncertain future. The reports full title emphasizes this change, too: Car Wars 2026-2029: The ICE Age Cometh as EV Plans Freeze. Slowing EV sales EV sales did increase in 2024 compared with the year prior, but the rate of that growth has slowed. That illustrates a challenge for carmakers: All the early adopters who are excited about EVs have already bought electric vehicles, and after that rush of enthusiasm, it becomes harder for the market to attract mainstream buyers. This is the challenge on consumer demand that Bank of America analysts touch on. That, combined with the Trump administrations efforts to kill the Inflation Reduction Acts EV tax credits, which incentivize electric vehicle purchases, and the tariffs on auto parts, are all adding to automakers’ struggles. Over the next four years, the Bank of America report says automakers are expected to launch 159 new vehicles; traditionally, that number is over 200 new vehicles across a four-year outlook. The lower launch count is largely a result of the delay in new EV programs as consumers remain disinterested, the regulatory push for EVs is relaxed, consumer EV incentives are likely to be eliminated, and potential tariffs are roiling production/supply chain management decisions, the report reads. A push for hybrids Automakers do still have EVs in the works, though, and consumers are about to see more hybrid options, too. As EV offerings are losing groundrepresenting 34% of upcoming car models, down from 40% last year and 44% in 2023, per the analysishybrids are growing to 28% of new power-train offerings over the next four years, up from 20% last year and 17% in 2023. Hybrids appear to be gaining more relevancy as many consumers seek more efficient vehicles but are disinterested in EVs, the report reads. That will include hybrids from Toyota, which has long been a leader in hybrid options (though it recently appeared to look to expand its EV portfolio), as well as Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis, Ford, GM, and Honda. GM is expected to launch nine hybrid models during that time period, per the analysis, as will Stellantis. Both Hyundai and Toyota are expected to add eight models to their hybrid lineups. Bank of America forecasts those new models will lead to an estimated 3.4 million hybrid sales in 2028 (for model year 2029), or about a 20% market share. (In 2024, both EV and hybrids together reached a record 20% of all U.S. vehicle sales.) Still, that market penetration rate appears to undershoot the relative hype that has been building in response to the stall in EV sales, the report reads. Simply, automakers need to launch more hybrid vehicles in the U.S. market, in our view.
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E-Commerce
Since Brian Niccol took over as Starbucks CEO last September, hes been promising to counter slow sales by revitalizing the company’s commitment to being a “third place”a space where customers sit and stay a while. But in the short term, his bigger win may come in the form of foam. At the Starbucks Leadership Experience event in Las Vegas this weeka gathering of some 14,000 Starbucks managers and employeesthe company unveiled a more appealing food menu. The new additions include a flakier fresh-baked croissant (which tasted better than the company’s current option, but not Parisian level) and a double chocolate cookie (rich, though quite salty). But even more interesting and important than the changes to the food menu is Starbuckss new trick that can turn any coffee into a protein-packed meal. Protein Cold Foam could be Starbucks’s most important innovation since the Pumpkin Spice Latte. Experientially, its indistinguishable from the cold foam you know, but it’s loaded with somewhere between 15 and 18 grams of protein. Starbucks’s new Banana Protein Cold Foam, at the Starbucks Leadership Experience 2025 in Las Vegas. [Photo: courtesy of the author] Cold foamin flavors like vanilla and salted caramelis already one of Starbucks’s most popular coffee add-ons. The company is now using that topping to tap into our insatiable appetite for protein. In 2024, 61% of consumers increased their protein intake, up from 48% in 2019, according to a recent study from food giant Cargill. Today, everything from candy bars and snack chips to sparkling beverages are jumping on the “proteinization” trend, promising a boost for a populace convinced that the more protein in ones diet, the better. Starbucks observed consumer behavior, too: Customers have been bringing their own protein mixes through their morning drive-through, and stirring or shaking them into Starbucks drinks. So Starbucks developed a proprietary unsweetened protein blend. It’s somewhat reminiscent of the company’s now discontinued Vivanno smoothie, a frozen blended coffee drink loaded with whey protein that I adored but a representative admits was ahead of its time. But this time, instead of mixing the protein into a smoothie, Starbucks wanted to put it into a larger swath of menu items. The problem? Starbucks originally imagined this new protein blend would simply mix into drinks, and it kept getting clumpy (a problem that will be familiar to any protein powder fan). The Starbucks development team set up in a test store two weeks ago to work the problem out. As it turned out, blending the powder into foam got rid of the clumps. (I imagine its technically an emulsification, in which dairy fats wrap their way around any gritty particles.) While that makes for a nice story, I was skeptical as Starbucks reps brought out the companys new Banana Protein Cold Foam for a taste test. Only when I took a sip did I believe: It was silky, sweet, and not at all chalky. I never would have known it had a meals worth of protein inside. The banana flavor smacked me on the lipsstrong, sweet, but mellow once I stirred it in. Starbucks is tight-lipped about when the Banana Protein Cold Foam will begin appearing on menus, but says it will also be available in flavors like chocolate (and even unflavored) down the line. I can imagine any cold foam getting a protein version, transforming an indulgence into a semiresponsible snack. Reframing the $8 morning coffee into a more nourishing meal is a smart way to keep people coming back at a time when many Americans are feeling their wallets pinched. Starbuckss North American same-store sales fell 1% for the quarter than ended on March 30, and by 4% during the last four months of 2024. The average ticket size, however, has been growingby 4% and 3% for the past two quarters. The new cold foam could help drive people into stores, as well as boost the cost of their drinks, depending on how its priced. This thing is going to be a rocket, Niccol said on stage in Las Vegas, introducing the new menu item to his employees. It’s on trend. It’s delicious. And I have to say, Im inclined to agree.
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E-Commerce
Less than a week in, Nintendos hot new Switch 2 handheld video game console is already breaking sales recordsincluding ones set by its iconic predecessor. Nintendo announced Wednesday that the Switch 2 has sold more than 3.5 million units around the globe, crowning it the fastest-selling Nintendo console of all time. Considering the massive success of the first Nintendo Switch and the longtime success of the Nintendo DSthe second-best-selling console of all time, just behind the PlayStation 2thats an impressive distinction. Fans around the world are showing their enthusiasm for Nintendo Switch 2 as an upgraded way to play at home and on the go, Nintendo chief operating officer Doug Bowser said. We are thankful for their response and happy to see the fun they are already having with Nintendo Switch 2, as they explore new features and games that bring friends and family together in new ways, he added. Beating its own record For comparison, Nintendo moved 2.74 million units of the original Nintendo Switch the first time around, in 2017. Those were already impressive numbers at the time, with a month of Nintendo Switch sales passing 20% of the Wii Us sales across the odd hybrid consoles entire lifespan. The first Nintendo Switch has sold more than 152 million units as of March of this year, putting it on track to eclipse the record of the Nintendo DS, which sits at 154 million units. The Switch 2 launched on June 5, following a preorder period that saw the consoles sell out online in a flash. Prior to the midnight release, gamers around the globe lined up outside Nintendo flagship stores and chain retailers, fittingly killing time playing games on their soon-to-be last-generation handhelds during the original Switchs waning hours. Improving on greatness Nintendos Switch 2 doesnt reinvent the wheelbut with the wheel still rolling so well, why would they? The Switch 2, which retails for $450, boasts a larger 1080-pixel screen, a beefier processor that can run more complex games, enhanced social features, and an improved software shop. (Switch fans know that the eShop update alone could justify an upgrade.) The new console launches with Mario Kart World, an open-world version of the cartoonish racing game thats defined Nintendo consoles since the Super Nintendo. While the Switch 2 might be a little tough to track down for a while, inventory woes wont hold a candle to Sonys rocky next-gen console launch in late 2020. Gamers hoping to snag a PlayStation 5 upon its debut often came up empty-handed as the global chip shortage and sky-high pandemic demand squeezed the consoles supply. Sony only declared its supply chain woes officially over three years later. Nintendo is facing intense demand with the Switch 2, but these days Trumps tariffs were the companys main launch concern. The Japanese company pushed back preorder plans in April as it navigated challenges the trade war might pose to its global sales.
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E-Commerce
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