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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. There is a consensus among major publicly traded homebuilders that the spring 2025 housing marketespecially in many parts of the Sun Belt, where inventory has climbed above pre-pandemic 2019 levelswas softer than they expected. While some builders have started focusing more on maintaining marginsand some have slowed their housing startsLennar has continued to push forward. Instead of defending short-term profitability, LennarAmericas second-largest homebuilderis using this period of housing market softness as an opportunity to capture market share and maintain sales pace through bigger affordability adjustments. The ResiClub team reviewed Lennars Monday earnings report and listened in on its Tuesday earnings call. Here are our top nine takeaways: 1. Lennar: All of the markets we operate in experienced some level of softening According to Lennar, it has observed at least some softening” across all its markets this spring. Even its “strongest” markets have lost some momentum. This aligns with ResiClubs reporting. All of the markets we operate in experienced some level of softening [this quarter], Lennar co-CEO John Jaffe said on the companys June 17 earnings call. Even in our strongest performing markets, buyers needed the assistance of incentives. Incentives will vary across the different markets, but primarily in the form of assistance with mortgage rate buy downs. Jaffe added: The markets that experienced more challenging conditions during the quarter were the Pacific Northwest markets of Seattle and Portland, the Northern California markets of the Bay Area and Sacramento, the Southwestern markets of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Colorado, and some Eastern markets such as Raleigh, Atlanta, and Jacksonville. 2. Lennar is deploying bigger sales incentives Lennars average sales price came in at $389,000 in Q2 2025thats down 8.7% from $426,000 in Q2 2024. And oh, boy, is Lennar spending a lot on incentives. In Q2 2025, Lennar spent an average of 13.3% of the final sales price on sales incentives, such as mortgage-rate buydowns. At that incentive rate, a home with a $450,000 sticker price would come with nearly $60,000 in incentives. According to John Burns Research and Consulting [see its historical chart here], thats the highest incentive level Lennar has offered since 2009and its significantly higher than Lennars cycle low in Q2 2022, when it spent 1.5% of the final sales price on sales incentives. Earlier this year, Lennar co-CEO Stuart Miller noted: “These are outsized [incentives] for the moment and normalized incentives should be around 5% to 6%. Pretty much: Where and when neededespecially in pockets of Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas, where active inventory has bounced back and buyers have gained leverageLennar is cutting net effective prices through larger incentives to find the market and keep sales rolling. 3. Average price net of incentives is down across Lennars divisionseven more so in Florida The biggest net price cuts occurred in Lennars East divisionwhich, while it includes Florida, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, is dominated by operations in the Sunshine Statethe epicenter of housing market weakness over the past year. 4. Additional margin compression During the pandemic housing boom, many publicly traded homebuilders achieved record profit margins as home prices soared and buyer demand ran red hot. Once the national housing demand boom fizzled out in the summer of 2022, many large homebuilders made affordability adjustments where and when needed to maintain their sales pace. Despite some profit margin compression, almost every major homebuilder entered 2024 with gross margins still above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. However, in recent quarters, margin compression has returnedespecially for Lennar. During the companys December 2024 earnings call, Lennar CFO Diane Bessette stated that the company anticipates further margin compression, with gross margins expected to range between 19.0% and 19.25% for Q1 2025. Lennars Q1 2025 gross margin ended up being 18.7%, and its Q2 2025 gross margin on home sales came in on June 16 at 17.8%. On the June 17 earnings call, Miller said he expects Lennars gross margin to be 18.0% in Q3 2025. 5. Lennar: Sales pace > margin As highlighted above, amid the softening market, Lennar has chosen to maintain sales pace over margin. Among the big builders, it has been the most aggressive on that front. Its now spending 13.3% of final sales price on incentivesand doing some of the biggest net effective price cuts in the Sun Beltin order to keep sales up. We are not there yet, but we are certain that we are finding a floor with margin and getting close to building it back even in a softer housing market environment, Miller said on the June 17 call. As the current market softness unfolded, we focused on consistent [sales] volume by matching our production pace with our sales pace. Miller added: Although some have questioned why we have maintained volume rather than protect our margin, we are very clear and steadfast on our strategy. Historically, we protected margin as market conditions stalled, and we generally led the way in protecting short-term profitability. But we learned through those times that once we step backwards and lose momentum, it becomes increasingly more and more difficult to restart and recapture volume. The machine slows and does not restart easily. We have concluded that by maintaining volume, we can create new efficiencies and new solutions that are durable for the future and will result in meaningful long-term efficiencies in our cost structure. 6. Sales steady-ish across markets Lennars Q2 2025 division-level performance was relatively steady once you account for its February 10 acquisition of Rausch Coleman Homes, which largely explains the sharp year-over-year jump in the South Central division. The Western division was a bit softer, reflecting broader cooling trends across many Western housing markets over the past six months. In contrast, Lennar saw a bit more growth in its Eastern division, particularly in Florida. Why? Its likely that Lennars earlier and more aggressive discounting in Florida is now paying off, attracting buyers who are still encountering resale sellers resisting the shifted pricing environment in their local neighborhoods. 7. Lennar: No impact from tariffsyet With respect to the question regarding tariffs, consistent with our commentary last quarter, we have had no impact to date on our costs from tariffs, Lennars Jaffe said on the earnings call. We work closely with the supply chain to prepare for alternative sourcing if it becomes necessary as well as the expectation that our trade partners will work with us to mitigate and offset cost impacts should they present themselves. 8. Lennar: Theres little evidence to support expectations of materially lower mortgage rates this year Initially, many in the housing market held on to the hope that higher interest rates were temporary, expecting inflation to subside and rates to drift back to lower levels. However, this expectation has not materialized, Miller said on the June 17 call. Looking ahead, theres little evidence to support expectations of materially lower interest rates in the near term. As a result, elevated interest rates have solidified as the new normal. The environment is about recognizing that short supply is keeping prices higher and that only lower prices enabled by lower cost structures will define affordability. 9. Homebuilder stocks remain in purgatory following Wall Streets pullback late last year
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E-Commerce
Hello and welcome to a special edition of Modern CEO! Im Stephanie Mehta, CEO and chief content officer of Mansueto Ventures. Each week this newsletter explores inclusive approaches to leadership drawn from conversations with executives and entrepreneurs; this week Im dropping a few extra newsletters from the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity. If you received this newsletter from a friend, you can sign up to get it yourself every Monday morning. Engaging with consumers and clients has traditionally been the purview of customer service teams and chief marketing officers (CMOs) who communicate with customers through advertising and messaging. CMOs are the folks gathered at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity this week. But thanks to social platforms, consumers now have the ability to tarnish or burnish brands, impact revenue, and even hurt or help stock pricesall part of the CEO remit. Consumers are more powerful, and they have more access and more tools, says Anton Vincent, president, Mars Wrigley North America and global ice cream at Mars. The creator economy will only help to accelerate consumer power. Straight from the top As a result, more CEOs are going direct to consumer. LinkedIn says it has seen a 52% increase in posts from CEOs in the past two years. We think about [posts] as a conversation, says Dan Shapero, LinkedIns chief operating officer. Executives feel safe posting because it is a platform for constructive conversation. Indeed, comments on LinkedIn are up 32% year over year. The most progressive companies and CEOs arent just talking to customers, they are harnessing customers energy to help build loyalty and support for their waresand even to help companies build new products. Research from ad agency TBWA\Worldwide found that 15% of adults globally would spend more for a brand that lets them participate in collaborative projects via co-creation, decentralization, or crowdsourcing. The customer connection Thanks to generative AI, consumers are already creating art, marketing messages, and other content for brands, much of it unauthorized and much of it technically impressive but conceptually shallow, says Jen Costello, global chief strategy officer for TBWA\Worldwide. A better approach is where co-creation is less about spectacle and defined more by transparency, reciprocity, and the infrastructure for true partnership, she says. Think co-branded product lines with fans, closed-loop design labs with select contributors, and shared revenue or credit for substantial contributors. With that in place, AI becomes a powerful accelerant rather than the showpiece. Vincent of Mars Wrigley says the company engages consumers by offering superfans a peek under the tent of what may be coming next. The M&M candy brand, for example, has embraced personalization, selling customized packaging and candies, and its Fun Club community engages members with quizzes, surveys, recipes, and more. Vincent says he also is upskilling his employees to become fluent in technologies and platforms that consumers are using to communicate displeasure or loyalty. CEOs who cede responsibility for engaging with consumers do so at their peril. Says Jim OLeary, North America CEO and global president at Weber Shandwick: Consumers are much more important to CEOs today because they have a much greater ability to influence things. How are you connecting with customers? CEOs, how do you engage with customers? Are you posting on LinkedIn or TikTok? Send me your examplesand links. Id love to feature helpful examples of CEO-consumer interactions in a future newsletter. Read more: CEOs go direct to consumer What its like to be a female founder in the age of Instagram MillerKnoll CEOs lessons from a town hall that went viral Mighty Networks CEO says community is key to building business
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E-Commerce
The stats are ironic. There are near-impossible odds to hit a Powerball jackpot (one in 292 million), yet a high probability that those that do will squander it (70% of lottery winners go broke). Not Tim Schulz. In 1999, he was a 21-year-old buried in student debt and working at a gas station for minimum wage before an improbable $28 million Iowa Powerball win instantly reversed his circumstances. More than 25 years later, Schultz is happy, successful, and still wealthy. He invested the majority of winnings, and still lives off of the interest on top of earnings from his successful Lottery, Dreams and Fortune podcast. I’m still incredibly grateful, said Schultz, now 48. Your life can go in different directions. It’s one of the biggest things that’s ever happened to me. Schultz’s initial purchases were practical. He eliminated his debt. He hired a financial advisor who put him on a budget. His first purchase was a Nintendo 64 game console, and eventually, Schultz purchased a modest house and car. Managing the logistics of a massive windfall The prospect of upgrading your life situation overnight is the lotterysor anyone who falls into instant wealth like an inheritancegreatest seduction. There are the problems you would solve, the house in Newport Beach you would buy, the tech startup you could start, and the money (or Birkin bags) you would gift your family. But rarely do dreamers factor in the actual logistics that immediately precede a golden ticket. From a process standpoint, I do think some of [the lottery winners] are a little surprised to find out how much is involved after the win, said Carolyn Becker, a spokesperson for the California Lottery. They are learning in real time. As fiscally responsible as Schultz was, there were tough lessons along the way. Demands for money from family and friends led to fallings-out. And becoming an instant Powerball millionaire at 21 created pressure, guilt, and stress at times for Schultz. Fast Company spoke to Schultz, who has also interviewed dozens of fellow lottery winners and financial advisors on his podcast, and representatives from the California Lottery to explain what to expect after hitting a 9- or 10-figure jackpot. And more importantly, how to survive it. 1. SECURE THE TICKET No ticket, no payout. Take it to a safety deposit box or someplace that will protect it from fire or getting wet, getting ruined, or lost, said Schultz, who suggests getting your ducks in a row before you claim your prize. In addition, if you are a part of an office pool or a shared ticket situation, the California Lottery advises a representative of the group can sign the ticket and attach an affidavit or pool agreement to the ticket to prevent internal disputes later. 2. BUILD A TEAM OF EXPERTS In most states, you have 365 days from the date of the draw to claim your winnings. That’s plenty of time (but not too long, there have been close calls and missed deadlines) to prepare a plan and hire the professionals who will protect you and your money, before redeeming your ticket. A reputable financial advisorto build your investment portfolio and veto the Birkin bag idea aboveis a given. But Schultz takes it a step further. There are lots of different types of attorneys, but I recommend an estate attorney before you redeem the ticket, he said, noting estate attorneys can often assist with taxes, legal forms, insurance, drafting media statements, and dispersing cash between family members. Schultz also warns against prematurely broadcasting your new fortune, rather, keeping those in the know limited to your new professional team and a few trusted family members and friends. 3. FILE YOUR CLAIM. (SPOILER ALERT: YOU WONT BE PAID TODAY) Unfortunately, the process of claiming a billion-dollar Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot (or even anything over $1,000 for that matter) is a little more complicated than just providing a routing number, explained Daniel Kelly, a spokesperson for the California Lottery. The first step involves completing and delivering a claims form, either in person or by mail, to the official lottery office in your state. In addition to providing the legitimate physical ticket, the lottery winners identity will be vetted. They want to make sure, because this is so much money that it’s going to the right person, Schultz said. They don’t want to mess that up. Also expect filling out formsand lots of them. Once the winner decides on whether to be paid in a lump sum (a one-time payment, which Schultz said is typically half of the sticker prize) or an annuity payment (annual payments, often for around 30 years), they must complete a variety of tax formsincluding state and federal tax (typically 24% is withheld). Eight states, including California, Washington, and Wyoming, do not tax lottery winnings. And dont expect a same-day deposit. The waiting time can be between six and eight weekssometimes longer if you have outstanding payments (unpaid parking tickets, child support, etc.) with the government. I think there was an overdue vehicle registration fee [from a major lottery winner in California] three years ago, literally $20 that stalled the process, said Becker. 4. CONSIDER MOVING (OR AT LEAST DELETE FACEBOOK) The degree of privacy for major lottery winners depends on the tickets point-of-sale origin. Some states like Wisconsin require you to claim your winnings publicly, while others like Arizona and Michigan allow large prize winners to remain anonymous. In California, winners names are public record, although they are not required to have their photo taken or talk to the media. I’ve been here five years, and no big winner has ever agreed to appear at a press conference with us, which is fine, said Becker. Edwin Castro, a Los Angeles-area resident who won a Powerball record $2.04 billion in 2023, did not appear on camera (he did provide a written public statement) but news media outlets like TMZ and the New York Post have tracked his home purchases and recent dating life. An anonymous lottery winner from California, who recently hit an eight-figure jackpot, told Fast Company that she eliminated her social media accounts, hired a company to scrub her digital footprint, and started a LifeLock account to protect her from identity fraud. Schultz advises refraining from drawing attention to yousef (suddenly driving a mustard-yellow Ferrari F80 might qualify). There is a safety component when you win a massive amount of money and I’ve definitely talked to winners who have changed their phone numbes, said Becker. 5. SAY NO. AND REPEAT In Schultzs own press conference two decades ago, he expressed returning to school to study film and journalism. Letters (early internet and pre-social media) poured in from around the country from filmmakers seeking funding. But it wasnt the shameless asks from strangers (sob stories and loans that will never be paid back) that were most challenging for Schultz, it was the entitlement from those closest to him. If you just get [your wealth] from a one or two-dollar lottery ticket, then for some people, it’s viewed as getting something for nothing, he said. The consequence was the relationships were really damaged because of that. Creating boundaries and understanding that he cannot help everyone has helped Schultz manage the requests. He also learned how to deflect. I blame it on my financial adviser, he said. Which is true, because I want to be financially responsible. 6. VIEW A LOTTERY WIN AS A BLESSING, NOT A CURSE Quit your job. Start a charity. Go on a safari in Tanzania. Do what feels authentic, is Schultzs two cents for anybody who wins a Powerball jackpot like he did 26 years ago. He is aware that his life benefited from a little luck. And hes grateful for that. I did pay off my debt, and I went back to college, and I pursued my dreams, he said. And you don’t need to win the lottery to do that. Almost everyone in the world whos ever achieved their dreams has not won the lottery, but you can, and people do.
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E-Commerce
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