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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Based on our analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are up just +0.2% year-over-year between January 2025 and January 2026. That marks a deceleration from the +2.6% growth rate a year earlierthough national price growth has recently stabilized, ticking a tad higher from a low of -0.01% in August 2025. In the first half of 2025, the number of major metro area housing markets seeing year-over-year declines climbed. That count has since pretty much stopped ticking up. 31 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Jan. 2024 to Jan. 2025 window. 42 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Feb. 2024 to Feb. 2025 window. 60 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window. 80 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window. 96 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 32% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window. 110 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the July 2024 to July 2025 window. 109 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Aug. 2024 to Aug. 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Sept. 2024 to Sept. 2025 window. 105 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Oct. 2024 to Oct. 2025 window. 98 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 33% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Nov. 2024 to Nov. 2025 window. 106 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 35% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Dec. 2024 to Dec. 2025 window. 100 of the nations 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 33% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the Jan. 2025 to Jan. 2026 window. As you can see above, in the first half of 2025, there was a notable increase in the number of housing markets slipping into year-over-year price declines as the supplydemand equilibrium (as measured by inventory) shifted more quickly toward homebuyers. Over the past seven months, however, the list of declining markets has begun to stabilize and inventory growth has also decelerated. Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Coloradowhere active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clipare seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing. Click here for an interactive version of the chart below Many of the housing markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers have gained the most leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw even greater price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. That Sun Belt softening was further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. As a result, some buyers who might have previously opted for existing homes are instead choosing new construction with more attractive dealswhich added further upward pressure to resale inventory growth over the past few years. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Of course, while 100 of the nations 300 largest metro area housing markets are seeing year-over-year home price declines, another 200 are seeing year-over-year home price increases. Where are home prices still up on a year-over-year basis? See the map below. window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}); Below is a historical chart showing the year-over-year change in home prices across the 50 largest metro housing markets, with the yellow line representing the national aggregate, dating back to 2000. While the range [see chart above] between the strongest and weakest metro area housing markets right now is fairly normal historically speaking, the bifurcation (i.e., direction) itselfthe share of markets with rising home prices versus those with falling pricesis wider than normal, given that national appreciation has stabilized into a softer market with growth barely above +0.0%. And the longer some markets remain in the rising camp while others stay in the falling camp, the wider the gulf can become between the relatively more resilient markets and the weaker ones. For example, home prices in the Hartford, CT metro area are now +21.2% above their 2022 peak, while home prices in the Austin, TX metro area sit -27.8% below their 2022 peak. Some of that bifurcation boils down to mean reversion, with many of the outright home price declines occurring in markets that overheated further during the Pandemic Housing Boom. Note: For the historical chart below, we analyzed the 200 largest markets rather than the 300 used above, as some markets ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data going back to 2000. When weighted by population (not visualized), the housing market appears slightly weaker than the chart below suggestswhich aligns with the fact that, among just the 50 largest housing markets, 25 (roughly 50%) are currently posting negative year-over-year price growth, and nationally aggregated home prices are up just +0.2% year-over-year using the Zillow Home Value Index.
Category:
E-Commerce
On a snowy Friday in January, dignitaries from both political parties braved the chill of a central New York winter for the groundbreaking ceremony of Micron Technologys planned $100 billion manufacturing complex in Clay, a town not far from Syracuse. Over the next 20 years, Micron is promising the region thousands of jobs and the revitalization of a community hard hit by the decline of manufacturing. Since President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, billions of public dollars have flowed into domestic semiconductor manufacturing as the United States seeks to revitalize an industry that was born in the U.S. before it was largely outsourced to East Asia. Both Democrats and Republicans have argued that domestic chip production is essential to national security, citing the role advanced semiconductors play in military systems as well as in critical infrastructure like financial and telecommunications networks. In order to expedite the development of up to four fabrication plants in central New York state, Micron may receive as much as $25 billion in public subsidies, including $6.1 billion from the federal CHIPS Act, $5.5 billion from New York state and billions more in refundable manufacturing tax credits. But some residents and advocates question whether the Micron project, as its currently planned, will bring more harm than good. The facility will consume vast amounts of water and energy while producing substantial hazardous waste, according to the companys environmental impact statement. Emissions and contaminated wastewater and soil from the notoriously dirty semiconductor industry pose potential environmental and health risks for surrounding areas, while exposure to its toxic chemicals has been linked to cancers and reproductive harm. Community members want enforcement measures to ensure the company follows through on promised environmental safeguards and its pledge to create 9,000 jobs. Were not trying to stop any progress, but we dont want this just bulldozed into our area, said Gracia Roulan, a nurse practitioner who has lived in Clay all her life and is part of the local group Neighbors for a Better Micron. Roulan said advocates like her want to ensure the project is truly better for the community, and raised concerns about potential pollution of the local water system and the clearing of the beautiful marshes all around the area, which provide a home to endangered species. To make way for the new structures, the project will fill more than 200 acres of wetlands. For its part, the company touts the projects benefits to the region, including a promise to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in education, worker training and affordable housing over the next two decades. Micron is committed to being a great member of the community and a responsible environmental steward, Anna Newby, a Micron spokesperson, said in an email to Capital & Main. The company has committed to developing new wetlands to offset those that will be destroyed. Newby said the environmental review process Micron undertook for its central New York project was thorough. Yet just hours before Micron broke ground, Neighbors for a Better Micron, alongside national worker advocacy group Jobs to Move America, filed a lawsuit against the project in New York Supreme Court for Albany County, arguing that the state permitting process was unnecessarily rushed and did not adequately consider public input. The suit names Micron along with state and local agencies, contending that despite the states reputation for having some of the strongest environmental laws in the country, the review process fell short, particularly given the size and scope of the project. The lawsuit points to the agencys failure to balance economic benefits and environmental harms, said Meredith Stewart, litigation director at Jobs to Move America. She said the court should reverse the environmental approval and require agencies to revisit the impact of the project in order to ensure harms are adequately addressed. But in New York and elsewhere around the country, proponents of semiconductor projects would like to see less, not more, environmental review. Lawmakers in famously eco-friendly California recently approved legislation allowing semiconductor companies to bypass environmental impact studies. In 2024, President Biden signed a law exempting most publicly funded semiconductor projects from federal environmental review, a move supporters said would speed construction and help the U.S. compete with China. Microns project nonetheless underwent federal as well as state scrutiny, with the federal review triggered by its impact on wetlands. Under the new law, the Commerce Department oversaw the federal process, and at Microns groundbreaking, Secretary Howard Lutnick praised his agencys rapid pace. See, this groundbreaking only got scheduled at the end of December because the Trump administration cleared out all of the environmental and other things that tend to get in the way, Lutnick said. The lawsuit brought by advocates asserts that community members were given insufficient time just 32 business days to review and provide public comment on an environmental impact statement that exceeds 700 pages or roughly 22,000 pages including supportive materials. Environmental review is one of the only levers that the public has to learn what the impact [of a project] might be on their community, said Judith Baish, director of CHIPS Communities United, a coalition of unions and community groups advocating for a safer and more equitable semiconductor industry. Some residents worry that the project will strain local infrastructure. When the project is completed, the company expects it to use 48 million gallons of water from Lake Ontario each day, enough to supply more than 585,000 homes. The county is developing a new wastewater treatment plant, and upgrading an existing one, to deal with the increase in volume. The project also poses risks to resident and worker health, advocates say, as the semiconductor industry has a well-documented history of toxic pollution. In order to transform raw silicon into the advanced components that power nearly all modern devices, chipmaking relies on hundreds of chemicals, many of them harmful. One of the biggest culprits, according to advocates, is per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), so-called forever chemicals that do not easily break down in the environment and are central to semiconductor manufacturing. Communities near semiconductor manufacturing facilities have faced contamination of soil and groundwater, while workers in chip fabrication plants have reported elevated rates of cancers and reproductive health issues. Beyond environmental risks, many activists say that Microns claims about the projects benefits are vague or lack the teeth of enforcement. They would like to see the billions of dollars in subsidies awarded to the company conditioned on whether it delivers on its promise to create thousands of jobs. Advocates also want the company to hire from the community and are concerned they may simply import workers into the area. A 2023 study found that more than a third of projects subsidized by state governments between 2004 and 2015 failed to meet their job creation goals. Researchers said the true figure may be higher because many states have weak disclosure requirements. Roulan pointed to a history of industrial projects in the region that came with pledges to improve the community but instead left behind pollution, the most famous example being the now defunct Allied Corporations contamination of Syracuses Onondaga Lake, which contributed to the lake being designated a Superfund site. We want development, we want to see jobs come here, Roulan said. But not at any cost. Last month, a separate coalition of advocacy groups in the Syracuse area, including Jobs to Move America, launched an effort to urge Micron to sign a legally binding community benefits agreement, a contract negotiated between a private company and community stakeholders that outlines benefits and mitigations that the company agrees to provide. The group, Central New York United for Community Benefits, sent a letter to Microns CEO just days after the groundbreaking ceremony, requesting a meeting. A community benefits agreement, the group said, could help ensure strong wages and benefits for the projects permanent workforce and protect residents access to clean air and water. Micron has pledged to hire 80% of its initial construction workforce locally and to use a project labor agreement, ensuring unionized construction labor. Newby said in an email that the company had already invested more than $15 million in local organizations and educational institutions as part of its pledge to invest $250 million over 20 years in a state fund aimed at developing the semiconductor manufacturing workforce in central New York state as well as supporting community needs such as affordable housing. Meanwhile, Roulan is already seeing changes following the groundbreaking giant trees going out by the truckful and tons of traffic changes around the area, which she said were signs of major disruption to come. Kalena Thomhave, Capital & Main This piece was originally published by Capital & Main.
Category:
E-Commerce
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, will head to the Pentagon on Tuesday to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about how the military uses the companys artificial intelligence models. And its likely to be a tense meeting, as sources first told Axios. Contract talks between the AI startup and the Department of Defense have gone off course in recent weeks as Anthropic has insisted on some safeguards for how its technology will be used. While the San Francisco-based company is willing to loosen some of its usage restrictions for the Department of Defense, it doesnt want its models used for at least two specific purposes: spying on Americans or developing autonomous weapons. Heading into Tuesdays meeting, the two factions seem to have differing views on how those contract talks have been proceeding. While a spokesperson for Anthropic said in a statement Monday that the company is having productive conversations, in good faith with the Pentagon, a Defense Department spokesman said last week that Anthropics relationship with the Pentagon is under review. Anthropic knows this is not a get-to-know-you meeting,” a senior Defense official told Axios. “This is not a friendly meeting.” ANTHROPICS ROLE IN NATIONAL SECURITY Anthropic is currently the only AI company available in the militarys classified networks and was among several companies awarded a $200 million contract with the Defense Department to in July advance U.S. national security. The company has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to supporting national security, including again on Monday. In June, it announced Claude Gov, a suite of models it built exclusively for U.S. national security customers. And yet, Amodei has become vocal about balancing the opportunities that AI presents with the concerns that it poses. In a lengthy piece published last month, the Anthropic co-founder warned: Humanity is about to be handed almost unimaginable power, and it is deeply unclear whether our social, political, and technological systems possess the maturity to wield it. At the India AI Impact Summit last week, Amodei that hes concerned about the autonomous behavior of AI systems and the potential for misuse of AI by individuals and governments. THE MADURO FACTOR Another factor thats strained the relationship between Anthropic and the Pentagon came to light last week: Claude was used in the U.S. militarys operation at the start of the year to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as The Wall Street Journal reported. That mission would seem to violate Anthropics usage guidelines that prohibit, among other things, that Claude not be used to incite violence or for criminal justice and surveillance. The companys usage policy, most-recently updated in September, is intended to strike an optimal balance between enabling beneficial uses and mitigating potential harms. But Anthropic also notes that the company may enter into contracts with certain governmental customers that tailor use restrictions to that customers public mission and legal authorities if, in Anthropics judgment, the contractual use restrictions and applicable safeguards are adequate to mitigate the potential harms. POKING THE BEAR Anthropic has tried to set itself apart from the rest of the universe of AI developers with a safety-first approach thats even seen it take a swipe, via a Super Bowl ad, at OpenAIs recent decision to incorporate ads into the ChatGPT platform. While Amodei has emerged as a contrarian of sorts, at times, by pushing back on unrestricted use of its Claude AI model for the U.S. military, Amodei is effectively poking the bear that is Hegseth. As Axios reported last week, Hegseth has threatened that the Pentagon could declare Anthropic to be a supply chain risk, which would void its contracts and force other companies that work with the Pentagon to certify they arent using Claude in any related workflows. Our nation requires that our partners be willing to help our warfighters win in any fight, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told media outlets last week. Ultimately, this is about our troops and the safety of the American people.
Category:
E-Commerce
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