Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, shares his view on Niftys fragile technical setup, the likelihood of heightened volatility around the Budget, and whether oversold stocks like Kalyan Jewellers are poised for a relief rally.
A key shift we expect is transition in policy emphasis from stimulating consumption to enabling production, reflecting a broader economic pivot from a Buy India approach to a Build India agenda.
Oil prices extended gains on Monday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept investors on edge even after Kazakhstan's main export pipeline resumed full operations.
A rising yen dragged the dollar broadly lower in early trade on Monday, with markets on alert about the prospect of intervention in the yen and investors cutting dollar positions ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and possible Fed chair announcement.
Mutual fund AUM and investor folios saw multi-year low growth in 2025 due to subdued stock market performance and a high base from previous years. Equity AUM growth halved, while overall AUM increased by 20% and folios by 16%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to hold interest rates steady amid heightened political pressure and global economic uncertainty. Despite President Trump's calls for lower rates, officials are prioritizing policy independence. Peers in Brazil, Canada, and Sweden may also maintain current settings, reflecting a unified stance on independence.
Greenko Energy Holdings secured 4,800 crore from NaBFID. This funding will retire dollar bonds maturing soon. The loan is for 38 special purpose vehicles with 1 GW renewable capacity. Greenko plans to use the funds for bond redemption this week. The company has a net installed capacity of 11 GW across India. Fitch recently downgraded Greenko's rating citing project delays.
Markets anticipate a rebound early in the shortened week following news of potential tariff removal on India. Despite oversold conditions, a sustained bounce hinges on reduced foreign institutional selling. Analysts identify key support and resistance zones, with a durable sentiment improvement requiring the index to reclaim higher bands.
