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As the Trump administration makes announcement after announcement about its efforts to promote the U.S. fossil fuel industry, the industry isnt exactly jumping at new opportunities. Some high-profile oil and gas industry leaders and organizations have objected to changes to long-standing government policy positions that give companies firm ground on which to make their plans. And the financial picture around oil and gas drilling is moving against the Trump administrations hopes. Though politicians may tout new opportunities to drill offshore or in Arctic Alaska, the commercial payoff is not clear and even unlikely. Having worked in and studied the energy industry for decades, Ive seen a number of discoveries that companies struggled to move forward with because either the discovery was not large enough to be commercially profitable or the geology was too difficult to make development plausible. Market conditions are the prime drivers of U.S. energy investmentnot moves by politicians seeking to seem supportive of the industry. Market fundamentals trump policy announcements The general decline in oil prices from 2022 through late 2025 has reduced the attractiveness of many drilling investments. And opening the East and West coasts to drilling may sound significant, but these regions have unconfirmed reserves. That means a lot of subsurface work, such as seismic surveys, stratigraphic mapping, and reservoir characterizationpotentially taking yearswould need to be done before any drilling would begin. Offshore drilling also faces enormous opposition. On the West Coast, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta have made forceful statements against any new California offshore oil drilling. They have said any effort is economically unnecessary, environmentally reckless, and dead on arrival politically in the state. California local governments, environmental groups, business alliances, and coastal communities also oppose drilling and have vowed to use legal and political tools to block them. There is opposition on the East Coast, too. More than 250 East Coast local governments have passed resolutions against drilling. Governors on both sides of the aisle, including Democrat Josh Stein of North Carolina and Republicans Brian Kemp of Georgia and Henry McMaster of South Carolina, have spoken out against drilling off their coasts. Drilling for oil in the Arctic region of Alaska is much more complex than in other areas of the country and the world. [Photo: Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement/Flickr] Arctic drilling is even harder Drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Beaufort Sea off Prudhoe Bay in Alaska would be a massive undertaking. These projects require years of development and are subject to future reversals in federal policyjust as Trump has lifted long-standing drilling bans in those areas, at least for now. In addition, Alaska is one of the most expensive and technically challenging places to drill. Specialized equipment, infrastructure for frozen landscapes, and risk mitigation for extreme weather drive costs far above other regions. These projects also face logistical challenges, such as pipelines running hundreds of miles through remote, icy terrain. Natural gas from Alaska would likely be sold to Asian buyers, who increasingly have alternative sources of supply from Australia, Canada, Qatar, and even the U.S. Gulf Coast. As production rises in those places, the entrance of Alaskan natural gas into the market raises the risk for global oversupply, which could depress prices and reduce profitability. Despite political support from the Trump administration, the oil and gas companies would need financing to pay for the drilling. And those loans wont come if the oil companies dont have agreements with buyers for the petroleum products that are produced. Major oil companies have withdrawn rom Alaska and signaled skepticism about attractive long-term returns. Trump has helped some In the first 10 months of the second Trump administration, the president has signed at least 13 executive orders pertaining to the energy industry. Most of them focus on streamlining U.S. energy regulation and removing barriers to the development and procurement of domestic energy resources. However, the broad nature of some of these orders may fall short of establishing the stable regulatory environment necessary for the development of capital-intensive energy projects with long time horizons. Those efforts have reversed the Biden administrations go-slow approach to oil drilling, reducingthough not completely eliminatingthe backlog of requests for onshore and offshore drilling permits that accumulated during Bidens presidency. Delays in permit approvals increase project costs, risk, and uncertainty. Delays can increase the chances that a project ultimately is downsizedas happened with ConocoPhillips Willow project in Alaskaor canceled altogether. Longer timelines increase financing and carrying costs, because capital is tied up without generating revenue, and developers must pay interest on the debt while waiting for approvals. Delays also lead to higher project costs, eroding project economics and sometimes preventing the project from turning a profit. Investment follows economics, not politics Unlike in some countries, such as Saudi Arabias Aramco, Norways Equinor, or Chinas CHN Energy, the U.S. does not have a national oil or gas company. All of the major energy producers in the U.S. are privately owned and answer to shareholders, not the government. Executive orders or political slogans may set a tone or direction, but they cannot override the fundamental requirement for profitability. Investments cant be mandated by presidential decree: Projects must make economic sense. Without that, whether due to low prices, high costs, uncertain demand, or changing regulations, companies will not proceed. Even if federal policies open new areas for drilling or relieve some regulatory restrictions, companies will invest only if they see a clear path to profit over the long term. With most energy investments costing large amounts of money over many years, the industry likely wants a sense of policy stability from the Trump administration. That could include lowering barriers to profitable investments by accelerating the approval process for supporting infrastructure, such as transmission power lines, pipelines, storage capacity, and other logistics, rather than relying on sweeping announcements that lack market traction. Skip York is a nonresident fellow in energy and global oil at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Change is often presented as an enigma. Unlike a traditional management task, you cant just devise a plan and execute it. To be an effective change leader, you need to embrace a certain amount of uncertainty because change, by definition, involves doing new things, and that always involves some measure of unpredictability. Still, that doesnt mean change is mysterious. We actually know a lot about it. In Diffusion of Innovations, researcher Everett Rogers compiled hundreds of studies performed over many decades. Around the same time, Gene Sharp led a parallel effort to understand how large-scale political movements drive social and institutional change. So while any change effort involves no small amount of uncertainty, there is also quite a bit of consistency. Much as Tolstoy remarked about families, all successful transformations end up looking very much alike, while all unsuccessful transformations end up failing in their own way. Here are four numbers to keep in mind as you embark on your change journey. 1. Three Quarters Of Transformational Initiatives Fail In 1983, McKinsey consultant Julien Phillips published a paper in the journal Human Resource Management that described an adoption penalty for firms that didnt adapt to changes in the marketplace quickly enough. His ideas became McKinseys first change management model that it sold to clients. Yet it was Harvards John Kotter, in his seminal 1996 book Leading Change, who really popularized the idea of change management, bringing it from academic theory into the practical world of business. His eight-step change management process continues to define the field for many even today. Later, Proscis ADKAR model gained prominence. Yet for all of the prestige surrounding these ideas, theres no evidence that any of these change management methods actually work. In fact, in a 2021 study McKinsey found that 69% of transformation efforts fail. A more recent study by Bain found that only 12% succeeded and 75% had mediocre results. Thats abysmal. There are many theories about why change fails. The McKinseys report points out that the source of failure can come at any stage, from target setting to planning, implementation, and after. Bain found that nearly all failed transformations were underfunded. In truth, however, these are symptoms, not causes. In my research Ive found something simpler and more fundamental: change fails because people resist it. If you can overcome resistance, change is possible. If not, it isnt. That is why we developed a simple tool called the Resistance Inventory, so that our clients can anticipate resistance from Day 1 and build strategies to mitigate it. 2. Two-Thirds Of Employees Experience Change Fatigue Managers launching a new initiative often seek to start with a bang. They work to gain approval for a sizable budget as a sign of institutional commitment. They recruit high-profile executives, arrange a big kick-off meeting, and look to move fast, gain scale, and generate some quick wins. All of this is designed to create a sense of urgency and inevitability. Yet trying to manufacture urgency often backfires. In Cultures of Growth, Stanford social psychologist Mary C. Murphy points out that disruption undermines the growth mindset that is essential for building an innovative culture. In particular, she cites research indicating that fear inhibits learning. There is also evidence to suggest that this effect is especially pronounced among top performers, who tend to be more prone to anxiety. Now consider a 2014 report by PwC. In a survey of more than 2,200 executives, managers, and employees located across the globe, it found that 65% of respondents cited change fatigue, and only about half felt their organization had the capabilities to deliver change successfully. It gets worse: 44% of employees say they dont understand the change theyre being asked to make and 38% say they dont agree with it. Perhaps not surprisingly, employees view new transformation initiatives suspiciously, taking a wait-and-see attitude, undermining the momentum and leading to a boomerang effect in which early progress is reversed when leadership moves on to other priorities. The impact on mental health is substantial. Stress disengages the parts of the brain related to cognitive and executive functions and activates the emotional parts of the brain instead. A recent study by the American Psychological Association found that 71% of American workers report feeling stressed at work and three in five say it negatively impacts their performance. 3. Only 10%20% Participation Is Needed To Hit An Inflection Point The biggest misconception about change is that, to get people to adopt it, you need to sell the value of an alternative future. The real problem with change is that the status quo has inertia on its side, and never yields its power gracefully. It has had yearsor even decadesto build support amng internal and external stakeholders. Thats why most transformational efforts fail and why two-thirds experience change fatigue. The status quo, despite its drawbacks, is what people know. To adopt something new, we need to overcome the synaptic patterns built up in our brains, the cultural forces to which we have conformed and to overcome switching costs. Thats never easy. So how do you break the cycle? The good news is that you dont have to convince everyone at once. We know from the earliest diffusion studies on things like hybrid corn and tetracycline that it takes only 10%20% to adopt an innovation for rapid acceptance by the majority to follow. Everett Rogers, in his seminal Diffusion of Innovations, found that this pattern was consistent over hundreds of studies spanning many decades. The key is to understand that change doesnt spread through communication campaigns, but through peer networks. If you can empower 10%20% of your organization to be successful with a new idea, they will spread it to their friends, who will spread it to others still. People adopt what they see working around them. So instead of trying to shape opinions, work to shape networks. 4. 84% of U.S. Corporate Assets Are Now Intangible Assets In the early 1980s, Intels President, Andy Grove, realized he had a problem. The company had built its business on DRAM memory chips. But competition from the Japanese was killing its profits. As he described in his book, Only The Paranoid Survive, things came to head in the middle of 1985. He turned to Intels Chairman and CEO Gordon Moore and asked him what a hypothetical new CEO would do if they were both fired. Moore replied without hesitation that the new CEO would get us out of memories. It was right then and there that a decision was made to focus on the microprocessors that would lead Intel to industry dominance. Its a great story and, for many, it has come to epitomize effective change leadership. Leaders make a strategic decision, communicate it effectively, and see that it is implemented at every level of the organization. Questions and concerns are listened to and addressed, but at the same time, the message is clear: Change is coming and you need to get on board. But consider that research shows in 1975, during roughly the same period that Gove and Moore transformed Intel, 83% of the average US corporations assets were tangible assets, such as factories, machinery, and buildings. When your assets are tangible, change is largely about communicating strategic decisions made from above. Theres little anybody can do to resist them anyway. However, the very same research finds that by 2015, 84% of corporate assets became intangible, such as licenses, patents, and research. Change is no longer about making decisions about strategic assets, but about influencing what people think and do everyday. You cant try to force or overpower that kind of change, you need to attract and empower. And that is probably the most important thing to know about how transformations happen today: change itself has changed. We can no longer just tell people to do what we want; we need to attract people who want what we want, who share our sense of mission. It is no longer enough to simply plan and direct action; we must inspire and empower belief.
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E-Commerce
I want to talk about something that I feel like maybe is a little controversial, content creator Jaclyn Hill said in a video posted earlier this week. The OG beauty influencer got her start on YouTube well over a decade ago. She’s since grown across different social media channels, including Instagram and TikTok, where she has 8.5 million and 1.2 million followers, respectively. In the video, which has since racked up over 3.5-million views, she opens up about how she’s been struggling to get views on TikTok and feels like she’s running through mud to connect with her followers. When you have a million followers, but youre getting 30,000 views, this is just not the way it used to be, she said. She was rightthe video proved controversial. Fans instantly took to the comments to push back at Jaclyn, saying that the influencer was being out of touch. One user commented: Saying Im burnt out from posting Sephora hauls and grwms to employed people is insane. Another wrote: Babe. That sweatshirt is $140. That’s my entire weekly grocery budget that we can afford for our entire family. Amid the backlash, an important point has been somewhat lost. Hill was taking issue with low views, a sign that her content is not being shown to those who have chosen to follow her. She was not raising the issue of low engagement, which would have been a sign that her followers were no longer enjoying her content. Instead, Hill has inadvertently found herself the newest face of a longstanding conversation around influencer fatigue. These feelings have been bubbling for a few years now and every few months resurface in reaction to one viral video or another. Jacyln, youre rich, and you won, one creator, @daadisnacks, said in response to her video. Im sorry if people dont want to be drowned in overconsumption by influencers when they cant afford groceries or housing. Fast Company has reached out to Hill for comment. This sums up the general sentiment online, as internet users are increasingly fed up with inescapable ads and being sold to 24/7. In many cases, people arent buying what influencers are selling, namely luxury items and extravagant lifestyles that feel overwhelmingly out of touch with most Americans reality. Such conspicuous consumption has grown somewhat distasteful at a time when nearly half of Americans are struggling to afford rent and groceries. Content creators on the whole are an easy target, especially when they are seen to be complaining to the audience that gave them their platform in the first place. Its worth reiterating, Hills issue was directed at the algorithm not her followersa complaint that has been echoed by other influencers on the platform over the years. As opposed to platforms like Instagram, where users would have to actively follow accounts to see influencer posts in their feeds, TikTok relies on an algorithm that shows users posts on their For You page based on what their behavior suggests they might like. Let’s say a group of viewers responds positively to a video, either by sharing the video or watching it in full, TikTok then shows it to more people who it thinks share similar interests. That same process then repeats itself, until the video goes ultimately viral. But if the first group of viewers the video is shown to only watches a few seconds before scrolling on, it is then shown to fewer users, limiting its potential reach. If viewers are no longer interested in watching overconsumption from influencers, the algorithm will stop pushing it out. For Hill, she put the question to her followers as to what they want to see instead. Addressing the backlash in a follow up video, she said: My ears are open, Im listening.
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