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Imagine youve set the goal of running a marathon thats 90 days away. Youve hired a trainer who says this a less than optimal amount of time, but if you stick religiously to her fitness routine, nutrition plan, and sleep schedule, youll be ready come race day. Cheat in any of those three areas, she warns, and you wont be able to run 26.2 miles on three months notice. Lets assume you feel pretty good about your odds of following through in each area. You believe theres a 70% chance youll stick with the fitness routine, a 70% chance youll stick with the nutrition plan, and a 70% chance youll stick with the sleep schedule. What are your odds of doing all three and showing up ready to run? The answer, surprisingly, is only 34.3%. You have three prerequisites to success. Individually, each seems likely to happen. But you need all three to play out as planned. When we multiply your odds of completing each step in the process, the outlook isnt so rosy. This is a relatively simple goal. You only need three things to go right. Now imagine your odds in a more complex and challenging situationlike starting a successful business or winning a coveted promotion. Suddenly, its not surprising that nine out of ten businesses supposedly fail or that most people make a tradition out of falling short on their New Years resolutions. We arent getting unlucky. Were experiencing the predicted failures associated with big goals and bad odds. But this isnt a reason to give up. Its a reason to probability hack. Here are three steps you can take to tilt the odds in your favor. 1. Think negative: do everything you can to identify and prevent bad outcomes If you flip a coin and call heads, theres a 50% chance youll get the outcome you want and a 50% chance youll fail. Our real-life goals are more complex, but the same principle holds. The odds of all possible outcomes add up to 100%. That means, if we can make bad outcomes less likely, well automatically boost our chances of success. Many people avoid wondering about things that could go wrong. After all, were supposed to think positive, right? Unfortunately, positive thinking wont prevent bad outcomes, which means it wont improve our odds. Preparation will. By identifying threats to our success, we can get creative and systematically de-risk our goals. When I applied to become the product director of a growing health organization, shortly after graduating college, my odds of success werent great. I was competing against a lineup of more experienced candidates. But I didnt give up or resort to simply manifesting a good outcome. I took intentional steps to make it happen. To keep the hiring squad from rejecting me for my youth, I grew a beard to look older. To demonstrate I was up to the task of leading a demanding team, I typed up a spiral-bound plan for improving the department and gave it to everyone I met. To fit in like an existing team member, I read books I knew the team was familiar with, which allowed me to speak their language. The day after an important interview, I woke up to find an email from the CEO. He said I was the most prepared candidate hed ever seen. Soon after, I was a twenty-one year old department head, on my way to a successful career. 2. Multiply your odds with the power of multiple attempts An 80% chance of failure isnt necessarily bad. It means for every five attempts, you expect to succeed once. A door-to-door salesman would be absolutely thrilled with that success rate. Knocking on 200 doors per day would lead to 40 sales! For some goals, it isnt possible or practical to try multiple times. But for goals with a high degree of uncertainty, multiple attempts can actually be the most reliable way to break through. Sometimes you dont have to beat the odds, you only have to play them. Apoorva Mehta estimates that he launched around 20 businesses before founding Instacart, including an ad network for gaming companies and a social media site for lawyers. When COVID hit, his grocery delivery service was in exactly the right place at the right time. Over a span of 10 months, Instacarts valuation increased by over $9 billion. Thomas Edison outcompeted his peers and found a practical filament for the incandescent lamp by experimenting with 6,000 different plant materials. Through this inglorious process, he discovered an unlikely winnercarbonized bambooand won valuable patents. Historys most famous creatives took a similar approach to produce enduring works of art. Mozart composed over 600 pieces of music. Beethoven wrote over 700. Van Gogh painted and sketched so prolifically, he averaged roughly one new work of art every 36 hours for 10 years. And in the world of product development, Ben & Jerrys created over 300 discontinued flavors on the road to uncovering classics like Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough and becoming the top-selling ice cream brand in the United States. Contrary to popular belief, quantity is not the sworn enemy of quality. Its a clever way to up your odds of producing great work. 3. Prioritize low probability steps Your overall odds of success will never be higher than your most unlikely prerequisite step. For example, imagine you need four department managers approval to pursue a time-sensitive idea at work. You think the first three each have a 98% chance of saying yes. The fourth has a 10% chance of saying yes. Again, you need all four to approve. That puts your overall odds at 9.4% not good. One proactive step you can take is first talking to the manager who will probably say no. Why? If he says yes, your odds will skyrocket. If he rejects the idea, you wont have to waste time talking to the other three managers. This is a clever way to fail fast and focus your energy on projects that are likely to succeed. In a production mindset, we prioritize the longest pole in the tent. In a probability mindset, we prioritize the step with the longest odds. Doing so consistently is a reliable way to experience smaller setbacks and get more of what you want in life. Every goal that youre pursuing has two hidden numbers attached to ita probability of success and a probability of failure. If we can make the first number bigger and the second number smaller, we can rewrite your future. In the context of a single goal, it could change your outcome. Over the course of several goals, it could shift the trajectory of your career. Multiplied across a lifetime of goals, it could redefine your legacy.
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E-Commerce
The fallout from the Trump administrations dramatic cuts to American public media is only just beginning. The governing group that oversees public educational TV in Arkansas voted on Thursday to split with PBS, the national public broadcast network best known for Sesame Street. The network formerly known as Arkansas PBS will rebrand as Arkansas TV, making it the first state public broadcast network to part with the national network synonymous with public access TV. The state network will officially sever its ties to PBS on July 1, 2026, at the beginning of Arkansas next fiscal year. Its commission framed the decision as a cost saving measure, citing a loss of the federal funds it relies on to pay annual dues of around $2.5 million to access PBS programming. The organizations commissioners, who voted six to two in favor of splitting from PBS, are appointed by the governor. The Arkansas network, which has already rebranded its website as ArkansasTV, says it is developing a new lineup of shows, including two shows for children, two food shows and two new series focused on history. Public television in Arkansas is not going away, ArkansasTV Executive Director and CEO Carlton Wing said in the announcement. In fact, we invite you to join our vision for an increased focus on local programming, continuing to safeguard Arkansans in times of emergency and supporting our K-12 educators and students. ArkansasTV paints an optimistic picture, but the states residents broadly support PBS according to recent surveying from YouGov. In a statement to Fast Company, PBS noted that 70% of Arkansas residents believe that PBS brings an excellent value to their community. The commissions decision to drop PBS membership is a blow to Arkansans who will lose free, over the air access to quality PBS programming they know and love, a PBS spokesperson said. It also goes against the will of Arkansas viewers. Decades of public media undone The decision to go it alone comes as the Trump administration targets public broadcasting with deep funding cuts, part of an aggressive campaign to defund agencies and initiatives it views as politically opposed to its priorities. Those cuts slashed $500 million in yearly funding from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private nonprofit authorized by Congress in 1967 to manage funds for public media. In light of a shortage of federal funding, the organization announced in August that it planned to end operations and shut its doors. Public media has been one of the most trusted institutions in American life, providing educational opportunity, emergency alerts, civil discourse, and cultural connection to every corner of the country, CPB President and CEO Patricia Harrison said at the time. The nonprofit historically doles out funds to PBS, NPR, and more than 1,000 local TV and radio stations. Sesame Street and Mister Rogers Neighborhood, two iconic public TV shows, were both made possible with funding from the CPB. On Truth Social, President Trump called PBS and NPR two horrible and completely biased platforms, urging Congress to defund what he characterized as a scam perpetrated by the Radical Left. The cascade of effects from the CPBs collapse will continue, but they arent the only threat to public broadcasting under the second Trump administration. This week, the conservative nonprofit law firm the Center for American Rights called on the FCC to revoke PBS and NPRs broadcast licenses. Trump himself has also suggested revoking broadcast licenses as a political weapon, declaring that ABC affiliates should have theirs taken away after an ABC News reporter asked a question about Jeffrey Epstein in an Oval Office event last month.
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E-Commerce
Humans are a unique species, because of our collective knowledge of our own mortality. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the average life expectancy for males in the United States is 75.8 years. That means entertainer extraordinaire Dick Van Dyke is defying statistics by turning 100 years old this Saturday, December 13. As he reaches this milestone birthday, let’s take a look back at his impressive career, what he credits his longevity to, and how he plans to celebrate. Well also cover how you can get in on the action and celebrate the Mary Poppins actor. A brief Dick Van Dyke biography Richard Wayne Van Dyke was born in West Plains, Missouri on December 13, 1925. He was raised in Danville, Illinois. At one time, he considered being a minister because of his mothers religious influences, but a high school drama class would ignite a love of entertainment. During his senior year of high school, Van Dyke enlisted in the Army to help the war efforts during World War II. He first served as a radio operator, before being transferred to Special Services to entertain the troops.After his army days, Van Dyke worked as a radio DJ. He hit the road touring the United States as part of comedy duo The Merry Mutes in 1947. Broadway first called in 1959, for the production The Girls Against the Boys, although Van Dyke is better known for his following role, of Albert Peterson in Bye Bye Birdie. Many dont know Van Dyke also once anchored a CBS morning show with Walter Cronkite. But the CBS sitcom The Dick Van Dyke Show would make him a household name, and 1964s classic film Mary Poppins would endear him to fans for years to come. (Who would forget that authentic cockney accent?) Longevity is a word that describes not only Van Dykes life, but also his career. Thirty years after his first hit show, he did it again in 1993, with Diagnosis Murder. Throughout his impressive career, he has been awarded six Emmy Awards, a Grammy Award, and a Tony Award. He has received a lifetime achievement award from SAG, and was declared a Disney Legend. Beyond the stage, screen, or airwaves, Van Dyke is a father of four, with several grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Dick Van Dyke’s tips for a long life Van Dyke is also an author, and he’s literally written the book on a long-lasting life: 100 Rules for Living to 100: An Optimist’s Guide to a Happy Life was published in November of this year. If you havent gotten around to reading it yet, never fear. The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang actor summarized some of the tips in an interview with the New York Times.He credits his long life to exercise. He moves his body in some way every day, and hits the gym at least three times a week. Van Dyke also values connection with others and playfulness. Theres a sense of whimsy about how he views the world. He also isnt afraid to try new things such as directing a childrens theatre production, which could help keep him young. How Dick Van Dyke plans to celebrate Van Dyke doesnt want a lavish party on his actual birthday. His wife Arlene Silver told People how he wants to spend his big day, and it’s surprisingly simple. He doesn’t want to do anything, she explained. He wants to be in his room watching Jeopardy! reruns with me.”This is not to say that Van Dyke has not been properly celebrated. The city of Malibu, where he resides, is hosting a whole festival for the man, called Vandy Days. From November 28 through December 14, the schedule is packed full of screenings, themed events, and costume contests. How you can celebrate Dick Van Dyke If geography doesnt allow you to attend Vandy Days, there are several ways you can get in on the action. Fathom Events is hosting special screenings of the new documentary film Dick Van Dyke 100th Celebration on December 13 and 14. The Catchy Comedy Network is doing a marathon of The Dick Van Dyke Show, playing 100 episodes to mark the occasion. And a new special, Starring Dick Van Dyke, will air on PBS as a part of the American Masters programming on Friday, December 12 at 9 p.m. It will also be available to stream on pbs.org/americanmasters and the PBS App. If all else fails, you can also do your own screening or marathon at home. Throw on Mary Poppins, and watch your cares melt away. After all, it’s supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
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E-Commerce
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