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U.S. hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump’s erratic and radical trade policies paralyze businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world’s largest economy.The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, well short of the 115,000 forecasters had expected.Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labor force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 221,000.“A notable deterioration in U.S. labor market conditions appears to be underway,” said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. “We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labor market.”Economists have been warning that the rift with every U.S. trading partner will begin to appear this summer and the Friday jobs report appeared to sound the bell.“We’re finally in the eye of the hurricane,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. “After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn’t just approachingit’s here.”U.S. markets recoiled and the jobs report and the Dow tumbled more than 600 points at the opening bell Friday.The revelations in the new data raise questions about the health of the job market and the economy as President Donald Trump pushes forward with an unorthodox overhaul of American trade policy.Trump has discarded decades of U.S. policy that had favored fewer barriers and ever-freer trade. Instead, Trump is imposing hefty import taxestariffson products from almost every country on earth. Trump believes the levies will bring manufacturing back to America and raise money to pay for the massive tax cuts he signed into law July 4.Mainstream economists say the cost of the tariffs will be passed along to Americans, both businesses and households. That has already begun to happen, with major U.S. companies from Walmart to toothpaste, detergent and toilet paper maker Procter & Gamble announcing price hikes.Trump has also sowed uncertainty in the erratic way he’s rolled the tariffs outannouncing, then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. Overnight, Trump signed an executive order that set new tariffs on a wide swath of U.S. trading partners to that go into effect on Aug. 7., and that arrived after a flurry of unexpected tariff-related actions this week.“There was a clear, significant, immediate, tariff effect on the labor market and employment growth essentially stalled, as we were dealing with so much uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and for tariffs,” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist for the brokerage T. Rowe Price.Still, Uruci said the data suggests we could be past the worst, as hiring actually did pick up a bit in July from May and June’s revised and depressed levels.“I’m not overly pessimistic on the U.S. economy based on this morning’s data,” she said, though she does think that hiring will remain muted in the coming months as the number of available workers remains limited due to reduced immigration and an aging population.Trump has sold the tariffs hikes as a way to boost American manufacturing, but manufacturers cut 11,000 jobs last month after shedding 15,000 in June and 11,000 in May. The federal government, where employment has been targeted by the Trump administration, lost 12,000 jobs. Jobs in administration and support fell by nearly 20,000.Healthcare companies added 55,400 jobs last monthaccounting for 76% of the jobs added in July and offering another sign that recent job gains have been narrowly concentrated.The department originally reported that state and local governments had added 64,000 jobs in education in June. After the revisions released Friday, that number fell to below 10,000.After the big revisions for May and June, Labor Department data show that the U.S. economy has generated an average of just 85,000 jobs a month this year., barely half the 2024 average of 168,000 and well below an average 400,000 from 2021-2023 as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 lockups.The weak jobs data makes it more likely that Trump will get one thing that he most fervently desires: A cut in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which oftenthough not alwayscan lead to lower rates for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly pointed to a healthy job market as a reason that they could take time to evaluate how Trump’s tariffs were affecting inflation and the broader economy. Now that assessment has been undercut and will put more pressure on the Fed to reduce borrowing costs.Wall Street investors sharply raised their expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September after the report was released.On Wednesday, the Fed left its key rate unchanged for the fifth straight meeting and Powell signaled little urgency to reduce rates anytime soon. He said the “labor market is solid” with “historically low unemployment.” But he also acknowledged there is a “downside risk” to employment stemming from the slow pace of hiring that was evident even before Friday’s weaker numbers.The current situation is a sharp reversal from the hiring boom of just three years ago when desperate employers were handing out signing bonuses and introducing perks such as Fridays off, fertility benefits and even pet insurance to recruit and keep workers.Weighing on the job market are the lingering effects of higher interest rates that were used by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation; Trump’s massive import taxes and the costs and uncertainty they are imposing on businesses; and an anticipated drop in foreign workers as the president’s massive deportation plans move forward.The rate of people quitting their jobsa sign they’re confident they can land something betterhas fallen from the record heights of 2021 and 2022 and is now below where it stood before the pandemic. Paul Wiseman and Christopher Rugaber, AP Economics Writers
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E-Commerce
President Donald Trump on Friday called for the Federal Reserve’s board of governors to usurp the power of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing the head of the U.S. central bank for not cutting short-term interest rates.Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump called Powell “stubborn.” The Fed chair has been subjected to vicious verbal attacks by the Republican president over several months.The Fed has the responsibility of stabilizing prices and maximizing employment. Powell has held its benchmark rate for overnight loans constant this year, saying that Fed officials needed to see what impact Trump’s massive tariffs had on inflation.If Powell doesn’t “substantially” lower rates, Trump said, “THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!”Two of the seven Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, issued statements Friday saying they see the tariffs as having a one-time impact on prices and the job market as likely softening. As a result, the two dissented at the Fed meeting on Wednesday and pushed for slight rate cuts relative to what Trump was seeking.Even though Trump, who nominated Waller and Bowman, has claimed the U.S. economy is booming, he welcomed their arguments.“STRONG DISSENTS ON FED BOARD,” he said in a separate Truth Social post. “IT WILL ONLY GET STRONGER!”Friday’s jobs report showed a rapidly decelerating economy, as just 73,000 jobs were added in July and downward revisions brought down the June and May totals to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively.Trump sees the rate cuts as leading to stronger growth and lower debt servicing costs for the federal government and homebuyers. The president argues there is virtually no inflation, even though the Fed’s preferred measure is running at an annual rate of 2.6%, slightly higher than the Fed’s 2% target.Trump has called for slashing the Fed’s benchmark rate by 3 percentage points, bringing it down dramatically from its current average of 4.33%. The risk is that a rate cut that large could cause more money to come into the economy than can be absorbed, possibly causing inflation to accelerate.The Supreme Court suggested in a May ruling that Trump could not remove Powell for policy disagreements. This led the White House to investigate whether the Fed chair could be fired for cause because of the cost overruns in its $2.5 billion renovation projects.Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, at which point Trump can put his Senate-confirmed pick in the seat. Follow the AP’s coverage of the Federal Reserve System at https://apnews.com/hub/federal-reserve-system. Josh Boak, Associated Press
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E-Commerce
How much does Oreo parent Mondelez crave the chocolate-peanut butter alchemy of Reeses? It has twice attempted to acquire Reeses parent, The Hershey Company, in 2016 and 2024. Well, if you cant buy em, collab with them, as Oreo and Reeses rocked the snackternet in late July with news of the forthcoming permanent additions to their lineups: Reeses Oreo Cup and the Oreo Reeses Cookie. I caught up with the top marketers from both Reeses and Oreo to understand how these two iconic brands came together. Paid subscribers will learn: How you create a partnership that goes beyond novelty and creates true value for customers and companies alike. Why these kind of partnerships are essential to wooing Gen Z customers. The role TikTok and fan culture played in making this collab happen. What the two brands learned from the 2014 limited edition Reeses peanut butter-filled Oreos. [Image: Hershey] The Oreo-Reese’s combo isn’t just some parent company internal mash-up, like Flamin Hot Mountain Dew. These are two separate corporations, coming together for a joint product. The Reeses Oreo Cup is an adaption of the classic peanut butter cup, but combining milk chocolate and white creme peanut butter cups with Oreo cookie crumbs. The Oreo Reeses Cookie is Reeses peanut buttery creme with Oreo cookie crumbs, sandwiched between Oreos classic chocolate cookie wafers. Both Hersheys and Mondelez stock prices are down by almost 5% over the past year, though Mondelezs Q2 earnings, reported this week, showed its second-quarter net revenue was up 7.7% to $8.98 billion, while Hersheys Q2 revenue (GAAP) climbed 26.0% year over year, reaching $2.6 billion. Michelle Deignan, Vice President of Oreo U.S. at Mondelez International, and Dan Mohnshine, Vice President, U.S. Confection Marketing at The Hershey Company, say both companies see this as both a strategic win in the grocery aisle, as well as a significant long-term investment in fan engagement. We spoke Deignan and Mohnshine to understand how these two iconic brands came together. They offer five lessons for creating a partnership that goes beyond novelty and creates true value for customers and companies alike. Lesson 1: Listen to the fans Both Mondelez and The Hershey Company credit a long and sustained enthusiasm among fans across social media with encouraging this official partnership. You always know you’re onto a winner when you create something that fans are already doing and asking for, says Deignan. Go to TikTok and youll see fans putting a Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup inside two Oreo wafers. So that was the perfect jumping off point for us. Mohnshine says the key for both brands was just listening to consumers. Reese’s and Oreo are the combination most named, especially among Gen Z audiences who are interested in collaborations, generally, but especially when it involves two iconic brands. So it was an easy conversation for us. [Images: Mondelz International, Inc.] Lesson 2: It pays to commit Between the two brands, Oreo has definitely been more active on brand product collaborations. Weve seen variations on the cookie from Coca-Cola, Sour Patch Kids, Ritz crackers, Barefoot Wines, streetwear kings Supreme, as well as artist collabs with Lady Gaga and Blackpink. Reeses may not have the laundry list of brand partners, but the brand has long toyed with a variety of ways it can deliver its distinct combo of peanut butter and chocolate. Witness the Chocolate Lava Big Cup, and PBJ versions. Deignan says the key for this new partnership was to build on what the brand has already done in a way that would get people excited and talking about it. Specifically, this was about leveling up from a limited edition collab the two brands released in 2014. It featured Reeses peanut butter creme in an Oreo cookie. We have history here, and people have been begging us ever since to bring it back, says Deignan. It didn’t have quite the creamy, distinctive flavor. I think that we’ve nailed it this time around, and we feel like we’ve elevated that experience. Like Oreo, Reeses uses LTO (limited time offers) to test the market. Mohnshine says the brand does extensive research to determine if certain ideas are going to have staying power. The Reese’s Oreo cup has that, and in some way, we didn’t even have to do the research because consumers were literally asking for it. Its always great to see confirmation show up in the scientific research to complement what we observe online. When evaluating these ideas, Mohnshine says the brand has two main objectives: How do we drive news on the brand and excitement on the brand? And is there a way that we̻re actually building and leaning into that brand equity in an even bigger way? [Image: Hershey] Lesson 3: Iron out your collab strategy If youve ever been in a corporate boardroom in any decision-making capacity or situation, you know that combining two signature products like this successfully is a minor miracle. First, each brand had to be really clear up front with some basics like: who is the target consumer? Then there is establishing the rules of engagement and decision rights, which are critical. Its collaboration, collaboration, collaboration, but also holding standards, says Mohnshine. Each of us have strong, high expectations that consumers have for our brands. So when you bring them together, how does Oreo show up within Reese’s? How does Reese’s show up within Oreo? There is a strong need to fit those brand standards. There’s some judgment involved by the leaders on the marketing team, and there’s also delivery from an R&D and technical perspective. Are you doing this in a way that a consumer would believe it? And we went through stringent testing to ensure that. Lesson 4: Prepare for a lot of back and forth Giant brands of any kind have to navigate plenty of red tape and internal process to get anything done. The potential is high for that complexity to lead to tension when you have two brands trying to accomplish something together. Both Deignan and Mohnshine say there is value in that inherent tension. When you bring two brands the size of ours together, our job is to truly make sure that we celebrate and protect what’s distinctive about both, says Deignan. That has been our common north star over the last two years, and that filters through everything. What’s been great about the process is, whilst collaborative, we’ve also made each other better, and we’ve pushed each other to make the best product and communications available. There’s going to be tension, there’s going to be some additional collaboration and communication required versus your typical process, says Mohnshine. However, to Michelle’s point, having the partners push each other to be better, you end up in a better place, even if it takes a little bit more communication and rigor. [Image: Hershey] Lesson 5: Use collabs to drive business results For many brands, collabs have gone far beyond sheer novelty and now impact significant business results. Deignan says that Oreo collabs have consistently helped grow its consumer base over the years. They deliver particularly well with Gen Z and younger demos, of course, dependent on the collab and the partnership you have, says Deignan. The role that these collabs play in our overall brand strategy and bringing households into the brand has been a key component of why we’ve continued to build and keep them as a mainstay in our playbook. For Reeses, Mohnshine says a collab like this helps the brand branch out beyond its comfort zone. For us, the most important thing is breaking the framework with how we execute and envision innovation, he says. And that means taking more of an external viewpoint, not just on consumers, which is table stakes, but also on partners, collaborators, even retailers. The idea is to look at the total ecosystem and bring something that’s truly newsworthy and think in nontraditional ways.
Category:
E-Commerce
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