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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. As unsold completed new-build inventory piles up and builders see their pricing power decreasedparticularly in Sun Belt markets like Austin, Tampa, and Jacksonvillemore homebuilders are turning to layoffs to avoid a larger margin compression. Many builders are trimming corporate staff headcounts a little and scaling back on spec construction in areas where months of supply has gotten too high for their liking. Look no further than a recent John Burns Research and Consulting survey, which found that 63% of U.S. homebuilders said their local peers had recently conducted layoffs, while only 14% reported no recent layoffs among peers. The numbers were even more striking in key Sun Belt markets: 87% of Texas builders and 79% of Florida builders said their peers had recently cut workers. By contrast, homebuilders in the Midwest and Northeast reported the lowest levels of layoff activity. Unlike some other subsectors of residential real estatesuch as mortgage lending or the agent side of the businesshomebuilding employment had remained relatively resilient following the 2022 rate shock. Bigger incentives, like forward-commitment mortgage rate buydowns, helped many builders maintain sales volume and avoid a sharper pullback. But with the housing market softening further over the past year and multifamily completions now rolling overafter a wave of projects completed that were financed during the ultra-low-rate pandemic yearsmore builders are cutting staff to adjust to the current environment. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, residential building construction employment has fallen by 3,800 jobs (-0.4%) from its cycle high in March 2025, while residential specialty trade contractor employment is down 44,000 jobs (-1.8%) from its September 2024 peak. So far, thats not a big pullbackbut it certainly marks a softer residential labor market. Given the recent softening in the residential construction labor market, its no surprise that during the latest earnings season, homebuilders emphasized that labor availability and labor costs arent major concerns right now. Heading into 2025, there were fears that a sharp slowdown in undocumented immigration at the border and an uptick in deportations could quickly tighten the residential construction labor pool and drive up labor costs. So far, broader conditions in homebuilding have outweighed those concerns. On D.R. Horton’s July 22 earnings call, CEO Paul Romanowski said: From labor availability, it’s plentiful. We have the labor that we need. Our trades are looking for work. And that’s why you’ve seen sequential and year-over-year reduction in our cycle time. Because we have the support we need to get our homes built. And, you know, given those efficiencies, reductions in stick and brick [costs] over time. Some of that is from design. And efficiency of the product that we’re putting in the field. And some of that is just from the efficiency of our operations. On builder PulteGroup’s July 22 earnings call, CEO Ryan Marshall said: Labors available. We havent seen any change there. We continue to be an employer of choice. Weve got consistent, predictable work. We pay on time. We pay well and fairly. So I think well continue to be a place that will attract available labor. You know, in terms of our cost assumptions, really no change from what we rolled out at the beginning of the year on the labor front. We have always and continue to verify the labor thats on our job site to be able to work legally in the country. Thats always been the case. We continue to make that a priority. You know, there certainly is, I think, disruptions within the broader labor force, not just in construction related to kind of ICE enforcement, and, you know, thats something that I think the country is going to have to grapple with. And, you know, as that impacts the total available labor force, I dont think itll be specifically just a construction challenge depending on what level of enforcement and deportation ultimately happens. And on builder Meritage Homes’ July 24 earnings call, CFO Hilla Sferruzza said: “Labor also seems to be more available in our markets potentially stemming from slower multifamily construction and reduced starts in the industry.” Historically, residential construction employment tends to roll over before most traditional recessions (i.e., those not driven by sudden shocks like the COVID-19 downturn in 2020). As a leading indicator, combined with signs of softening in the broader labor market, its something to keep an eye on right now. Hypothetically, IF the U.S. unemployment rate were to spike and the economy weakened, financial markets could respond with a flight to safetydriving up demand for Treasuries, pushing bond prices higher, and sending yields (including mortgage rates) lower. For now, however, the labo market appears to be softening rather than experiencing an outright break. If that changes, well cover it.
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A TikTok comedian has sparked debate after riffing on the viral term clanker, which in recent months has surfaced as an insult for robots, AI systems, and those who rely on them. The term, originally from Star Wars, spiked in searches in early June, according to Google Trends. As it spreads online, people are questioning whether its just a harmless joke or an insensitive slur. Comedian and TikTok star Stanzi Potenza fueled the discussion in late August with a skit roleplaying a Southern waitress. The caption of the now-viral video reads: POV: youre a clanker in 2050. Well, well, well, look what the Roomba dragged in, Potenza says in a southern drawl. Didnt you see the sign outside? We dont serve clankers here. She goes on to call the robots wirebacks (a term many say is uncomfortably close to a slur used against Mexicans in the U.S.) and adds: We dont have none of your oil or microchips or whatever it is you rust buckets eat. The video, which has been viewed nearly a million times, struck many as echoing real racial slurs and stereotypes. It feels out of touch, taking actual slurs and turning them into silly robot slurs is notgreat,” one commenter wrote. The skit was also reposted to X, where one user wrote: roleplaying actual 50s racism with fucking robots is egregious in so so many ways. Others defended Potenza, arguing critics were being too woke and that the video actually makes fun of racism. Potenza isnt alone in riffing on clanker. Another TikTok comedian, Samuel Jacob, posted a similar video days later with the caption: If the 2050s become like the 1950s (but instead its Robophobia). His skit features human-robot segregated bathrooms, a schoolyard bully, a thug provoking street violence, and a cop arresting a clanker named George Droid. Always taking it too far, one commenter wrote. Fast Company has reached out to Potenza and Jacob for comment.
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Argentina’s markets tumbled on Monday, with the peso currency at a historic low, after a heavy defeat for President Javier Milei’s party at the hands of the Peronist opposition at local elections stoked worries about the government’s ability to implement its economic reform agenda. The peso was last down almost 5% against the dollar at 1,434 per greenback while the benchmark stock index fell 10.5%, and an index of Argentine stocks traded on U.S. exchanges lost more than 15%. Some of the country’s international bonds saw their biggest falls since they began trading in 2020 after a $65 billion restructuring deal. The resounding victory for the Peronists signaled a tough battle for Milei in national midterm elections on October 26, where his party is aiming to secure enough seats to avoid overrides to presidential vetoes. The government now faces the difficult choice whether to allow the peso to depreciate ahead of next month’s midterms or spend its foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the FX market, according to Pramol Dhawan, head of EM portfolio management at Pimco. “Opting for intervention would likely prove counterproductive, as it risks derailing the IMF [International Monetary Fund] program and diminishing the countrys prospects for future market access to refinance external debt,” Dhawan said via email. “The more resources the government allocates to defending the currency, the fewer will be available to meet obligations to bondholdersthereby increasing the risk of default.” He said early indications that the government may double down on the current strategy “would be a strategic misstep.” The 13-point gap in the Buenos Aires Province (PBA) election in favor of the opposition Peronists was much wider than polls anticipated and what the market had priced in. The government setback at the polls adds to recent headwinds for a market that had until recently outperformed its Latin American peers. “We had our reservations about the market being too complacent regarding the Buenos Aires election results. The foreign exchange market will undoubtedly be under the spotlight, as any instability there can have a ripple effect on Argentine assets,” said Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS, in response to emailed questions. “However, it’s important to note that simply using reserves to prop up the currency isn’t likely to provide much reassurance to the market,” she added. “The midterm elections, in my opinion, carry more weight and their outcome will significantly influence how Argentine assets perform in the coming months.” The bond market sell-off saw the country’s 2035 issue fall 6.25 cents, on track for its largest daily drop since its post-restructuring issuance in 2020. Based on official counts, the Peronists won 47.3% of the vote across the province, while the candidate of Milei’s party took 33.7%, with 99.98% of the votes counted. Argentinaone of the big reform stories across emerging markets since Milei became president in December 2023has seen its markets come under heavy pressure over the last month following a corruption scandal involving Milei’s sister and political gatekeeper Karina Milei. The government defeat also comes after the International Monetary Fund approved a $20 billion program in April, of which some $15 billion has already been disbursed. The IMF has eagerly backed the reform program of Milei’s government to the point that its director, Kristalina Georgieva, had to clarify remarks earlier this year in which she invited Argentines to stay the course with the reforms. The IMF did not respond to questions on whether this vote result would change its relationship with the Milei administration or alter the program. Market sell-off Argentina’s main equity index had dropped around 20% since the government corruption scandal broke, its international government bonds have sold off, and pressure on the recently unpegged peso forced authorities to start intervening in the FX market. “The result was much worse than the market expectedMilei took quite a big beating, so now he has to come up with something,” said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Investments. Morgan Stanley had warned in the run-up to the vote that the international bonds could fall up to 10 points if a Milei drubbing dented his agenda for radical reform. On Monday, the outcome saw the bank pull its “like” stance on the bonds. Barclays analyst Ivan Stambulsky pointed to comments from Economy Minister Luis Caputo on Sunday that the country’s FX regime wont change. “Were likely to see strong pressure on the FX and declining reserves as the Ministry of Economy intervenes,” Stambulsky said. “If FX sales persist, markets will likely start wondering what will happen if the economic team is forced to let the currency depreciate before the October midterms.” Some analysts, however, predicted other parts of the country were unlikely to vote as strongly against Milei as in the Buenos Aires Province, given it is a traditional Peronist stronghold. They also expected the Milei government to stick to its program of fiscal discipline despite economic woes. “The Province of Buenos Aires midterm election delivered a very negative result for the Milei administration, casting doubt on its ability to deliver a positive outcome in Octobers national vote and risking the reform agenda in the second half of the term,” said JPMorgan in a Sunday client note. “The policy mix adopted in the coming days and weeks to address elevated political risk will be pivotal in shaping medium-term inflation expectationsand, ultimately, the success of the stabilization program.” By Karin Strohecker and Rodrigo Campos; additional reporting by Marc Jones and Shashwat Chauhan, Reuters
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