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Adam Kucharski is a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and an award-winning science writer. His book, The Rules of Contagion, was a Book of the Year in The Times, Guardian, and Financial Times. A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika, and COVID. He has advised multiple governments and health agencies. His writing has appeared in Wired, Observer, and Financial Times, among other outlets, and he has contributed to several documentaries, including BBC’s Horizon. Whats the big idea? In all arenas of life, there is an endless hunt to find certainty and establish proof. We dont always have the luxury of being sure, and many situations demand decisions be made even when there is insufficient evidence to choose confidently. Every fieldfrom mathematics and tech to law and medicinehas its own methods for proving truth, and what to do when it is out of reach. Professionally and personally, it is important to understand what constitutes proof and how to proceed when facts falter. Below, Adam shares five key insights from his new book, Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty. Listen to the audio versionread by Adam himselfin the Next Big Idea App. 1. It is dangerous to assume something is self-evident. In the first draft of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, the Founding Fathers wrote that we hold these truths to be sacred and undeniable, that all men are created equal. But shortly before it was finalized, Benjamin Franklin crossed out the words sacred and undeniable, because they implied divine authority. Instead, he replaced them with the famous line, We hold these truths to be self-evident. The term self-evident was borrowed from mathematicsspecifically from Greek geometry. The idea was that there could be a universal truth about equality on which a society could be built. This idea of self-evident, universal truths had shaped mathematics for millennia. But the assumption ended up causing a lot of problems, both in politics and mathematics. In the 19th century, mathematicians started to notice that certain theorems that had been declared intuitively obvious didnt hold up when we considered things that were infinitely large or infinitely small. It seemed self-evident didnt always mean well-evidenced. Meanwhile, in the U.S., supporters of slavery were denying what Abraham Lincoln called the national axioms of equality. In the 1850s, Lincoln (himself a keen amateur mathematician) increasingly came to think of equality as a proposition rather than a self-evident truth. It was something that would need to be proven together as a country. Similarly, mathematicians during this period would move away from assumptions that things were obvious and instead work to find sturdier ground. 2. In practice, proof means balancing too much belief and too much skepticism. If we want to get closer to the truth, there are two errors we must avoid: we dont want to believe things that are false, and we dont want to discount things that are true. Its a challenge that comes up throughout life. But where should we set the bar for evidence? If were overly skeptical and set it too high, well ignore valid claims. But if we set the bar too low, well end up accepting many things that arent true. In the 1760s, the English legal scholar William Blackstone argued that we should work particularly hard to avoid wrongful convictions. As he put it: It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer. Benjamin Franklin would later be even more cautious. He suggested that it is better 100 guilty persons should escape than that one innocent person should suffer. We dont want to believe things that are false, and we dont want to discount things that are true. But not all societies have agreed with this balance. Some communist regimes in the 20th century declared it better to kill a hundred innocent people than let one truly guilty person walk free. Science and medicine have also developed their own traditions around setting the bar for evidence. Clinical trials are typically designed in a way that penalizes a false positive four times more than a false negative. In other words, we dont want to say a treatment doesnt work when it does, but we really dont want to conclude it works when it doesnt. This ability to converge on a shared reality, even if occasionally flawed, is fundamental for science and medicine. Its also an essential component of democracy and justice. Rather than embracing or shunning everything we see, we must find ways to balance the risk that comes with trusting something to be true. 3. Life is full of weak evidence problems. Science is dedicated to generating results that we can have high confidence in. But often in life, we must make choices without the luxury of extremely strong evidence. We cant, as some early statisticians did, simply remain on the fence if were not confident either way. Whether were sitting on a jury or in a boardroom, we face situations where a decision must be made regardless. This is known as the weak evidence problem. For example, it might be very unlikely that a death is just a coincidence. But it also might be very unlikely that a certain person is a murderer. Legal cases are often decided on the basis that weak evidence in favor of the prosecution is more convincing than weak evidence for the defendant. Unfortunately, it can be easy to misinterpret weak evidence. A prominent example is the prosecutors fallacy. This is a situation where people assume that if its very unlikely a particular set of events occurred purely by coincidence, that must mean the defendant is very unlikely to be innocent. But to work out the probability of innocence, we cant just focus on the chances of a coincidence. What really matters is whether a guilty explanation is more likely than an innocent one. To navigate lawand lifewe must often choose between unlikely explanations, rather than waiting for certainty. 4. Predictions are easier than taking action. If we spot a pattern in data, it can help us make predictions. If ice cream sales increase next month, its reasonable to predict that heatstroke cases will too. These kinds of patterns can be useful if we want to make predictions, but theyre less useful if we want to intervene in some way. The correlation in the data doesnt mean that ice cream causes heatstroke, and crucially, it doesnt tell us how to prevent further illness. Often in life, prediction isnt what we really care about. In science, many problems are framed as prediction tasks because, fundamentally, its easier than untangling cause and effect. In the field of social psychology, researchers use data to try to predict relationship outcomes. In the world of justice, courts use algorithms to predict whether someone will reoffend. But often in life, prediction isnt what we really care about. Whether were talking about relationships or crimes, we dont just want to know what i likely to happenwe want to know why it happened and what we can do about it. In short, we need to get at the causes of what were seeing, rather than settling for predictions. 5. Technology is changing our concept of proof. In 1976, two mathematicians announced the first-ever computer-aided proof. Their discovery meant that, for the first time in history, the mathematical community had to accept a major theorem that they could not verify by hand. However, not everyone initially believed the proof. Maybe the computer had made an error somewhere? Suddenly, mathematicians no longer had total intellectual control; they had to trust a machine. But then something curious happened. While older researchers had been skeptical, younger mathematicians took the opposite view. Why would they trust hundreds of pages of handwritten and hand-checked calculations? Surely a computer would be more accurate, right? Technology is challenging how we view science and proof. In 2024, we saw the AI algorithm AlphaFold make a Nobel Prize-winning discovery in biology. AlphaFold can predict protein structures and their interactions in a way that humans would never have been able to. But these predictions dont necessarily come with traditional biological understanding. Among many scientists, Ive noticed a sense of loss when it comes to AI. For people trained in theory and explanation, crunching possibilities with a machine doesnt feel like familiar science. It may even feel like cheating or a placeholder for a better, neater solution that weve yet to find. And yet, there is also an acceptance that this is a valuable new route to knowledge, and the fresh ideas and discoveries it can bring. This article originally appeared in Next Big Idea Club magazine and is reprinted with permission.
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Like a good pair of Basquiat Crocs, there are innumerable bad ways to license an artists work. So when Airstream looked to partner up on a project with the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation, the aluminum-clad trailer brand could have just printed one of the architect’s famous patterns on a limited run of its vehicles and called it a day. It probably would have even sold well. But that is decidedly what Bob Wheeler, Airstreams president and CEO, did not want to do. We said, All right, let’s make sure that everything has a purpose and a functionthat way it’s not just a pastiche, or some kind of lame attempt to mimic something, Wheeler recalls. We didn’t want it to seem overdone or kitschy. Instead, the brand embarked on a multiyear collaboration with the experts at Wrights Taliesin West home and studio in Scottsdale, Arizona, and today the two are rolling out the 28-foot Airstream Frank Lloyd Wright Usonian Limited Edition Travel Trailer. With just 200 numbered vehicles that retail for $184,900 on offer, youlike memight not be able to afford one at the moment, but they just might also restore your faith in the art of the artist collab at large. [Photo: Airstream] BETTER LATE THAN NEVER Wheeler has a passion for midcentury design (as you might expect of Airstreams CEO), so it tracks that hed be a natural fan of Wrights organic architecture. Honestly, this has been a dream of mine for the last 20 years, which is about as long as I’ve been president of Airstream, he says. Why are Wrights designs so celebrated today? It’s because they’re timeless. I think there are values there that incentivize someone to buy an Airstream that overlap in some meaningful ways. Though Wright and Airstream founder Wally Byam were active at the same time and likely shared some of the same design fan base, theres no record of them ever meeting. But a collaboration between the two ultimately proved inevitable when Wheeler reached out to Wrights foundation in 2022. Foundation historian Sally Russell says her team wasnt initially sure how robust a joint project could be. They eventually toured the Airstream factory in Ohio where the trailers are handmade using 3,000 rivets over the course of 350 hours, and saw how much customization was truly possible. Then she realized that it could be a great showcase of Wrights work. Beyond an Airstreams signature aluminum exterior, Wheeler says the trailer is essentially a blank canvas. And that’s where we can really flex some design muscle and allow others to do so. Russell says the foundation first explored whether to make the trailer feel like an adaptation of a specific Frank Lloyd Wright home. The answer to that was no, she says. We didn’t want to try to re-create the Rosenbaum House and shove it into the size of a trailer. It didn’t make sense, because Frank Lloyd Wright certainly designed for each of his individual projectshe created something new, something that expressed the individual forms of the project, the needs of the client. So there was a great awareness of wanting to continue that legacy through the work that we did on the trailer. The two teams ultimately homed in on the concept of Usonian design, a style that aimed to democratize design via small, affordable homes with a focus on efficient floor plans, functionality, and modularity. In other words: an ideal fit for an Airstream. [Photo: Airstream] COLLAPSIBLE CHAIRS AND CLERESTORY WINDOWS When you approach the trailer, the connection to Wright is immediate on the custom front door featuring the Gordon leaf pattern, which the architect commissioned his apprentice Eugene Masselink to design in 1956. Its a tip of the hat to nature, presumably an Airstreamers destination, and can be found subtly throughout the trailer in elements like sconces and cabinet pullsbut not too much, per the design mission at the outset. (At one point we had a lot more of that Gordon leaf in there, Wheeler notes. We dialed that way back.) With the push of a button, the bench seating converts into a king-size bedone of Wheelers favorite elements. It is the largest bed in any Airstream, and is a first for the company, he says. [Photo: Airstream] Another convertible element, in line with that focus on modularity, is the living space at the front of the trailer. Here, a dining table, desk, and seating inspired by the slant-back chairs that Wright used throughout his career collapse into a wall cabinet. Wheeler says Airstream used to deploy clever featres like this in the midcentury era, before modern preferences trended toward built-in furniture. So in some ways, this is a bit of a flashback to an earlier design in the 50s, which is appropriate. The teams also honored Wrights focus on natural light, relocating Airstreams usual overhead storage in favor of clerestory windows, which are prominent in Usonian homes. Meanwhile, the overall color palette comes from a 1955 Wright-curated Martin-Senour paint line. Russell says the team selected it for its harmonious blend with the natural settings where the trailer is likely headed, featuring ocher, red, and turquoise. Ultimately, It’s like a Frank Lloyd Wright home, where you walk into it, and it’s a completely different experience from any other building, Russell says. I hope that he would be very happy to see that design legacy continue, because he certainly did that with his own fellowship and the apprentices that he worked with. [Photo: Airstream] USONIAN LIFE Starting today, the limited-edition, numbered trailers will be available for order at Airstream dealerships. Wheeler says the company was originally going to release just 100 of them, but got so much positive feedback from dealers and others that they doubled the run. On the whole, the collaboration comes in the wake of a boom time for Airstream, which is owned by Thor Industries. Airstream experienced a surge during the pandemic, resulting in a 22% jump in sales in 2021 as people embraced remote work or realigned their relationship to the world. We’ve come back to earth now, and now we’re much more tied to actual market retail rates, which is what we know, Wheeler says. In its third-quarter financials, Thor reported $2.89 billion in revenue (up 3.3% from previous year). While the company declined to provide Airstream-specific numbers, its overall North American towable RV division is up 9.1% from the same period in 2024. But theres a problem afoot: The current administrations tariffs, which Wheeler says made settling on the price for the Frank Lloyd Wright collaboration tricky. He adds that the company is struggling with shortages caused by the disruption in the supply chain, and high interest rates are also a problem. [Photo: Airstream] Look, we’re 94 years old, he says. We’ve been through more of these cycles than we can count, so we’re fine, and we’ll continue to trade on authenticity, quality, great service and support, a great dealer network, and a brand that really has become part of the fabric of the U.S. traveling adventure.
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E-Commerce
A Broadway play is coming to your living room live via cable television for the first time ever. This historic moment takes place tonight (Saturday, June 7, 2025) at 7 p.m. ETjust one day before the 78th Tony Awards. Grab some snacks and settle in for Good Night, and Good Luck, co-written by George Clooney and Grant Heslov and directed by David Cromer. Although this event is being pitched as a TV first, streaming service BroadwayHD was technically the first to livestream a Broadway show, with the musical She Loves Me in 2016but we digress. Here’s what to know about Good Night, and Good Luck, and how to watch it live. What is “Good Night, and Good Luck” about? Good Night, and Good Luck tells the story of respected CBS journalist Edward R. Murrow and his quest to hold Senator Joseph McCarthy accountable for his actions during the 1950s Red Scare. It is based on the 2005 film of the same name. This time around, George Clooney portrays Murrow and is making his Broadway debut. What do the critics say? Good Night, and Good Luck received mostly positive reviews. Varietys Frank Rizzo praised its seriousness of purpose that is again dramatically stark, solidly documented, and ultimately chilling. The Hollywood Reporters David Rooney mused that the drama at times seems almost as educational as it is theatrical. Both believe the ending might have been too heavy-handed and wanted more character development for the supporting characters. Time Outs Adam Feldman did not mince words, stating that the play is too similar to the movie. It is well designed and full of fine actors doing their jobs. Its subject is timely and its message is on point, and theres no good reason to see it, he quipped. The American Theatre Wing and the Broadway League, the organizations behind the Tony Awards, honored the production with five nominations. This includes one for Clooneys leading performance. The play is a major commercial success, becoming the highest-grossing play in Broadway history. On the way to that title, it repeatedly grossed more than $4 million in a single week. These numbers are partly because tickets range from $176 for obstructed views to $799 for the best seats. Why tell this story now? Clooney and Heslov wrote the 2005 screenplay as a response to the United States actions in the Iraq War. Unfortunately, the universal themes of speaking truth to power are more relevant now than ever. I think it’s a story that you can keep telling over and over,” Heslov told CBS’s 60 Minutes. “I don’t think it will ever thematically get old.” They chose to adapt the story for the stage because of the Trump administration’s actions to discredit the media. While the president laments so-called fake news, journalists play an important role in educating the public and keeping public officials honest. “When the other three estates fail, when the judiciary and the executive and the legislative branches fail us, the fourth estate has to succeed,” Clooney added during the 60 Minutes interview. He went on to say that a recent ABC News settlement with the Trump administration was scary. In a similar vein, CBS is trying to get a $20 billion lawsuit that claims 60 Minutes committed election interference dismissed. Additionally, Trump continues to cherry-pick which outlets get access to him while attempting to defund news organizations such as NPR. We’re seeing this idea of using government to scare or fine, or use corporations to make journalists smaller, Clooney explained. Clooney’s father, Nick Clooney, was a respected broadcast journalist. The younger Clooney followed in his fathers political-party footsteps and is a lifelong Democrat. How can I watch or stream the Broadway play live? Because this story is so personal to Clooney, he is doing his part to bring the shows important and timely message to an even wider audience beyond the Big Apple. He partnered with CNN to accomplish this. Thanks to 20 cameras and 14 camera operators, audiences around the world can feel like they are in the room where it happened. I cant tell you how exciting it is to do something thats never been done. CNN is the perfect place to bring this story of courage to so many more people than we could have ever hoped. Live TV. No net. Buckle up everyone, Clooney stated in a press release. Before the metaphorical curtain rises, CNN’s Pamela Brown will host a pre-show outside of the Winter Garden Theatre, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET. The play will begin at 7 p.m. ET and runs an hour and 40 minutes, with no intermission. After the play, CNN’s Anderson Cooper will host a special, discussing the current state of journalism. He will be joined by a slew of notable guests including Connie Chung and Marvin Kalb. Traditional cable subscribers can watch the pre-show, play, and post-show discussion on CNN and CNN International. Cord-cutters can stream the theatrical experience on CNN.com/GoodNightGoodLuck and do not need a cable login. It will also be available on HBO Max at all subscription levels.
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E-Commerce
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