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Indian equity investors might face a lackluster September, as historical trends indicate a subdued market performance. Data reveals that key indices like Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 have often declined during this month over the past decade. Technical analysis suggests a slightly negative outlook, with potential upside capped until Nifty surpasses specific levels.
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The Reserve Bank of India increased gold reserves over US Treasury bills. This move aims to strengthen foreign exchange holdings. India's US T-bill investments decreased compared to last year. However, India remains a top investor, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Germany. This shift reflects a global trend of diversifying reserves beyond the dollar. China also reduced its US T-bill holdings.
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Indian equities closed August with a second consecutive month of losses as Nifty fell 1.38%, pressured by U.S. tariff shocks, foreign fund outflows, and profit-taking. Despite this, strong GDP growth and upcoming GST reform talks provide potential buffers. Geopolitical developments, including Modis China visit, and domestic growth triggers will test whether markets can recover in September.
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Nifty seasonality in September has leaned bearish, slipping in six of the past ten years as FII selling weighed on sentiment. Despite steady DII buying in September, volatility persists. Historical performance highlights sector rotation, with a cautious technical view guiding investment strategy for the month.
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Indian stock market slipped as Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Infosys dragged indices lower, with Nifty falling below the 100 EMA, signaling weakness. Analysts see support at 24,15024,400 and resistance near 24,650. Stock picks include Lumax Industries and Authum Investment with bullish setups.
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