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Indian markets experienced a downturn on Friday, with Nifty ending its winning streak due to selling in key sectors. Geopolitical worries, the upcoming Union Budget, and a weakening rupee contributed to subdued sentiment. Analysts anticipate volatility during Sunday's special trading session, advising a cautious, hedged approach ahead of the budget announcement.
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Indias export strategy is shifting beyond its dependence on the US, with fresh FTAs across Europe, the UK, Middle East and Oceania. The EU deal alone opens tariff-free access for 99% of Indian goods. This diversification strengthens Indias trade resilience and reduces vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical uncertainty.
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Historical data from the past 15 years shows that pre-Budget corrections in the Sensex and Nifty often set the stage for post-Budget rebounds. Large-cap indices recover quickly, while midcaps and smallcaps show gradual gains. Budget 2026 is expected to focus on fiscal prudence, infrastructure, MSMEs, and growth support amid global headwinds.
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Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay suggests Budget 2026 can stabilize equity sentiment by addressing FPI concerns, particularly through the removal of long-term capital gains tax. A clear divestment strategy and targeted sectoral support in banking, BFSI, defence, and infrastructure are also highlighted as crucial for boosting market confidence and encouraging foreign investment amid global uncertainties.
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Market expert Sunil Subramaniam anticipates Budget 2026 could be a positive trigger amid weak equity sentiment, driven by reform-led optimism. He suggests AI-focused initiatives and support for private capex, including expanding PLI schemes and public sector bank financing, could attract foreign capital and boost the economy.
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